Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A wave of growth-negative news has rolled in since the weekend.</li><li>Trump is reportedly furious with Putin and is now considering secondary tariffs on Russian oil—an escalation that would weigh on global growth.</li><li>Meanwhile, there’s no clear path to peace in Ukraine, with Russia holding the cards and continuing to gain ground, adding further geopolitical drag.</li></ul>

A wave of growth-negative news has rolled in since the weekend.Trump is reportedly furious with Putin and is now considering secondary tariffs on Russian oil—an escalation that would weigh on global growth.Meanwhile, there’s no clear path to peace in Ukraine, with Russia holding the cards and continuing to gain ground, adding further geopolitical drag.

Steno Signals #191: Meowing at Robots Ahead of Liberation Day!

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).</li><li>Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.</li><li>To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.</li></ul>

President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI rebounded in March due to geopolitical risks, but oversupply concerns and Trump’s unpredictable policies may limit further gains as OPEC increases output from April.</li>
<li>Henry Hub rallied in 2025, driven by strong LNG demand, supply constraints, and below-average inventories, positioning it for sustained support despite short-term volatility.</li>
<li>Henry Hub’s technicals indicate a potential bullish reversal, while WTI’s bullish momentum shows signs of weakening, suggesting divergent trends in the near term.</li>
</ul>


WTI rebounded in March due to geopolitical risks, but oversupply concerns and Trump’s unpredictable policies may limit further gains as OPEC increases output from April.
Henry Hub rallied in 2025, driven by strong LNG demand, supply constraints, and below-average inventories, positioning it for sustained support despite short-term volatility.
Henry Hub’s technicals indicate a potential bullish reversal, while WTI’s bullish momentum shows signs of weakening, suggesting divergent trends in the near term.


WTI’s Recovery Wavers While Henry Hub Regains Momentum

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything geopolitics- and commodities! We are approaching the “Liberation Day” on Apr 2 where we will (hopefully) get more clarity around the tariffs plans from Trump.</li><li>We have recently seen a semi-u-turn from the Trump administration on the severity and depth of the reciprocal tariffs announced next week, and the base-case is a softer stance with some negotiated exemptions for big partners.</li><li>This is also exactly what paves the way for a very decent comeback in US risk assets now, something that we expect to continue into April when the softened USD and slightly lower USD bond yields start feeding through via easier financial conditions.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything geopolitics- and commodities! We are approaching the “Liberation Day” on Apr 2 where we will (hopefully) get more clarity around the tariffs plans from Trump.We have recently seen a semi-u-turn from the Trump administration on the severity and depth of the reciprocal tariffs announced next week, and the base-case is a softer stance with some negotiated exemptions for big partners.This is also exactly what paves the way for a very decent comeback in US risk assets now, something that we expect to continue into April when the softened USD and slightly lower USD bond yields start feeding through via easier financial conditions.

The Drill: Approaching the End of the Tariff and Peace Trades?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Steno Signals #191: Meowing at Robots Ahead of Liberation Day!

A wave of growth-negative news has rolled in since the weekend. Trump is reportedly furious with Putin and is now considering secondary tariffs on...

Steno Research

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that...

Steno Research

WTI’s Recovery Wavers While Henry Hub Regains Momentum

Geopolitical risks boost WTI in March, but oversupply and Trump policies may cap gains; Henry Hub rallies in 2025 on LNG demand and supply...

Mint Finance

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

The Drill: Approaching the End of the Tariff and Peace Trades?

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything geopolitics- and commodities! We are approaching the “Liberation Day” on Apr 2 where we will...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steno Signals #191: Meowing at Robots Ahead of Liberation Day!

A wave of growth-negative news has rolled in since the weekend. Trump is reportedly furious with Putin and is now considering secondary tariffs on...

Steno Research

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that...

Steno Research

WTI’s Recovery Wavers While Henry Hub Regains Momentum

​Geopolitical risks boost WTI in March, but oversupply and Trump policies may cap gains; Henry Hub rallies in 2025 on LNG demand and supply...

Mint Finance

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

The Drill: Approaching the End of the Tariff and Peace Trades?

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything geopolitics- and commodities! We are approaching the “Liberation Day” on Apr 2 where we will...

Steno Research

Geopolitical risks boost WTI in March, but oversupply and Trump policies may cap gains; Henry Hub rallies in 2025 on LNG demand and supply...