Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

<ul>
<li>Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...</li>
<li>...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support</li>
<li>Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish</li>
</ul>


Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...
...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.</li><li>The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.</li><li>FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.</li></ul>

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.</li><li>These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.</li><li>While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.</li></ul>

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Tuesday, and welcome back to our weekly commodity editorial, where we keep you updated each and every week on what’s going on in the world of commodities, energy, and the like!</li><li>It’s hard to talk about commodities without talking about China these days, as we have seen a complete reversal in the Chinese macro scene after we scouted last week for the best commodity plays should the Chinese stimulus come through.</li><li>After all, they used the same wording as they did back in 2008, and it was wise of markets to “cry wolf,” as China would need to publish actual stimulus plans and their size before markets chased the story.</li></ul>

Happy Tuesday, and welcome back to our weekly commodity editorial, where we keep you updated each and every week on what’s going on in the world of commodities, energy, and the like!It’s hard to talk about commodities without talking about China these days, as we have seen a complete reversal in the Chinese macro scene after we scouted last week for the best commodity plays should the Chinese stimulus come through.After all, they used the same wording as they did back in 2008, and it was wise of markets to “cry wolf,” as China would need to publish actual stimulus plans and their size before markets chased the story.

The Drill – The China Meltdown Is Ruining the Upbeat Trends in Manufacturing

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

The Commodity Report

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

The Drill – The China Meltdown Is Ruining the Upbeat Trends in Manufacturing

Happy Tuesday, and welcome back to our weekly commodity editorial, where we keep you updated each and every week on what’s going on in the world...

Steno Research

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