Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Freight rates dropped for the first time since 2022, signaling a slowdown in factors driving rate increases.</li>
<li>Trade tariffs may have minimal impact on the USD and inflation, with fiscal policies playing a larger role.</li>
<li>A BRICS monetary union could create instability, while Trump’s policies may push the U.S. toward economic risks.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Freight rates dropped for the first time since 2022, signaling a slowdown in factors driving rate increases.
Trade tariffs may have minimal impact on the USD and inflation, with fiscal policies playing a larger role.
A BRICS monetary union could create instability, while Trump’s policies may push the U.S. toward economic risks.


The Drill: The Party Seems Over In Freight Rates

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Good morning from Copenhagen.</li><li>It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick Timiraos about the Fed considering a 50bps cut were actually true after all.</li><li>Markets have been desperately hoping for the 50bps cut, as evidenced by the price action where Fixed Income is being bought regardless of the economic news.</li></ul>

Good morning from Copenhagen.It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick Timiraos about the Fed considering a 50bps cut were actually true after all.Markets have been desperately hoping for the 50bps cut, as evidenced by the price action where Fixed Income is being bought regardless of the economic news.

The Week at a Glance – Is a 50bps Cut Good if Paired with Economic Weakness?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 65% probability of a 50 bps rate cut and a 35% chance of a 25 bps cut.</li>
<li>Given the strong rate cut expectations since mid-August, the focus now shifts to the scale and depth of the cuts for the rest of the year.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.75 on 16/Sep from 1.09 on 10/Sep and its OI PCR slid to 0.76 from 0.77 during the same period.</li>
</ul>


The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 65% probability of a 50 bps rate cut and a 35% chance of a 25 bps cut.
Given the strong rate cut expectations since mid-August, the focus now shifts to the scale and depth of the cuts for the rest of the year.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.75 on 16/Sep from 1.09 on 10/Sep and its OI PCR slid to 0.76 from 0.77 during the same period.


Rate Cut Speculation Fuels WTI Crude Oil, But China Clouds Outlook

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI futures gained 1.45% for the week ending 13/Sep, as Hurricane Francine offset demand concerns. The smaller-than-expected build in US crude inventories aided in the rebound.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.30 (13/Sep) from 1.17 the week prior as call volume fell 36.6% WoW while put volume fell by 29.9%.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR dipped to 0.76 for the week ending 13/Sep from 0.78 on 06/Sep. Call OI rose 7.6% WoW and put OI picked up by 4.7%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures gained 1.45% for the week ending 13/Sep, as Hurricane Francine offset demand concerns. The smaller-than-expected build in US crude inventories aided in the rebound.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.30 (13/Sep) from 1.17 the week prior as call volume fell 36.6% WoW while put volume fell by 29.9%.
WTI OI PCR dipped to 0.76 for the week ending 13/Sep from 0.78 on 06/Sep. Call OI rose 7.6% WoW and put OI picked up by 4.7%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/37] WTI Crude Rises as Hurricane Impact Offsets Demand Concerns

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

The Drill: The Party Seems Over In Freight Rates

Take aways:Freight rates dropped for the first time since 2022, signaling a slowdown in factors driving rate increases. Trade tariffs may have...

Steno Research

The Week at a Glance – Is a 50bps Cut Good if Paired with Economic Weakness?

Good morning from Copenhagen. It’s make-or-break this week with Powell taking the stage on Wednesday to reveal whether the rumors from Nick...

Steno Research

Rate Cut Speculation Fuels WTI Crude Oil, But China Clouds Outlook

Oil prices rose on rate cut expectations, but gains were limited. Traders expect a 50 bps cut, with options data showing increased bullish...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/37] WTI Crude Rises as Hurricane Impact Offsets Demand Concerns

WTI prices recovered last week despite the ongoing demand concerns as Hurricane Francine supported prices. The Put/Call volume ratio increased to...

Mint Finance

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