Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Brent crude fell to a 17-month low after the markets largely ignored OPEC+’s decision not to increase production.</li><li>This highlights once again the point we’ve been making: the current cycle of supply cuts is unsustainable, and as time goes on, it only becomes increasingly unsustainable.</li><li>The only viable option left for OPEC might be to engage in a market-share war, driving out producers with higher marginal costs by pushing prices down.</li></ul>

Brent crude fell to a 17-month low after the markets largely ignored OPEC+’s decision not to increase production.This highlights once again the point we’ve been making: the current cycle of supply cuts is unsustainable, and as time goes on, it only becomes increasingly unsustainable.The only viable option left for OPEC might be to engage in a market-share war, driving out producers with higher marginal costs by pushing prices down.

The Drill: The left tail in oil just got bigger

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 582 for the week ending 06/Sep, marking a decline in rig count for the fourth consecutive week.</li>
<li>The US oil rig count is unchanged at 483 for the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by one to 94, marking their lowest level since April 2021.</li>
<li>For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude oil production stayed flat WoW at 13.3m bpd. In August, production reached a record high of 13.4m bpd on two occasions.</li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 582 for the week ending 06/Sep, marking a decline in rig count for the fourth consecutive week.
The US oil rig count is unchanged at 483 for the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by one to 94, marking their lowest level since April 2021.
For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude oil production stayed flat WoW at 13.3m bpd. In August, production reached a record high of 13.4m bpd on two occasions.


Drop in Gas Rigs Leads to Fourth Straight Weekly Decline in US Rig Count

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Output hikes announced in fourth quarter</li><li>Various commodities including copper, natural gas, and grain oilseeds have experienced sharp declines</li><li>Oil prices influenced by economic indicators, strong underlying demand, and declining global visible oil inventories</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Output hikes announced in fourth quarterVarious commodities including copper, natural gas, and grain oilseeds have experienced sharp declinesOil prices influenced by economic indicators, strong underlying demand, and declining global visible oil inventoriesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: The art of keeping up with yesterday and avoiding tomorrow

<ul><li>Since July, US macroeconomic momentum has weakened substantially.</li><li>We are now back on a negative trajectory for cyclical growth, with signs of fading momentum in some service sectors, including leisure and hospitality.</li><li>In the spring, we observed a significant build-up of orders relative to inventories as manufacturers sought to bypass the latent pressure from trade tariffs by front-loading activity.</li></ul>

Since July, US macroeconomic momentum has weakened substantially.We are now back on a negative trajectory for cyclical growth, with signs of fading momentum in some service sectors, including leisure and hospitality.In the spring, we observed a significant build-up of orders relative to inventories as manufacturers sought to bypass the latent pressure from trade tariffs by front-loading activity.

EM Watch: China was WEAKENING even before the decline in Western demand

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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The Drill: The left tail in oil just got bigger

Brent crude fell to a 17-month low after the markets largely ignored OPEC+’s decision not to increase production. This highlights once again the...

Steno Research

Drop in Gas Rigs Leads to Fourth Straight Weekly Decline in US Rig Count

For the week ending 06/Sep, US rig count fell by 1 to 582. Oil rig count was unchanged for the third straight week, while the gas rig count fell by...

Mint Finance

Global Commodities: The art of keeping up with yesterday and avoiding tomorrow

Oil prices are down but other commodities are also affected, US treasuries and dollar index are falling, while gold is at all time highs, with a...

At Any Rate

EM Watch: China was WEAKENING even before the decline in Western demand

Since July, US macroeconomic momentum has weakened substantially. We are now back on a negative trajectory for cyclical growth, with signs of...

Steno Research

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

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