Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 95% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> at the close on 13 December.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 11% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY17.56bn (US$2.48bn). The Information Technology and HealthCare sectors gain at the expense of Industrials.</li>
<li>After drifting lower over the last couple of months, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks. There should be more to go here.</li>
</ul>


With 95% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 December.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 11% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY17.56bn (US$2.48bn). The Information Technology and HealthCare sectors gain at the expense of Industrials.
After drifting lower over the last couple of months, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks. There should be more to go here.


CSI 500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

Beijing United Information Tec / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 95% of the review period now complete, we forecast 100 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI 1000 Index at the close on 13 December</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.9% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY14.4bn (US$2.04bn). The Industrials sector could gain the most index spots.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have drifted lower versus the forecast deletes over the last few months. Part of that can be attributed to the inflows to ETFs tracking the CSI1000 Index.</li>
</ul>


With 95% of the review period now complete, we forecast 100 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI 1000 Index at the close on 13 December
We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.9% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY14.4bn (US$2.04bn). The Industrials sector could gain the most index spots.
The forecast adds have drifted lower versus the forecast deletes over the last few months. Part of that can be attributed to the inflows to ETFs tracking the CSI1000 Index.


CSI 1000 Index Rebalance Preview: 100 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$4bn Round-Trip Trade

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearly US$140bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs year to date and there have been big creations in the last few weeks as stocks have surged.</li>
<li>97% of all inflows are in ETFs benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI300</a>, CSI1000, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> indices. But over US$4bn has gone into other ETFs in the last week.</li>
<li>The large ETF inflows over the last few weeks has led to index rebalance strategies underperforming in China. But that should reverse from now to rebalance implementation.</li>
</ul>


Nearly US$140bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs year to date and there have been big creations in the last few weeks as stocks have surged.
97% of all inflows are in ETFs benchmarked to the CSI300, CSI1000, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext and STAR50 indices. But over US$4bn has gone into other ETFs in the last week.
The large ETF inflows over the last few weeks has led to index rebalance strategies underperforming in China. But that should reverse from now to rebalance implementation.


China ETF Inflows & Implications: YTD Inflows Nearing US$150bn

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

Electric Connector Technology / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 70% of the review period complete, we forecast 8 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.</li>
<li>There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index - Shang (SH000905 INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes for both indices on a year-to-date basis, but near-term performance has been lackluster.</li>
</ul>


With 70% of the review period complete, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index - Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes for both indices on a year-to-date basis, but near-term performance has been lackluster.


ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: 22 Changes & US$700m Trade

China

CSI 500 index aims to comprehensively reflect the price fluctuation and performance of the small-cap companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen securities market. The index has a base value of 1000 as of December 31, 2004.

CSI Smallcap 500 Index - Shang (SH000905 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CSI Smallcap 500 Index - Shang (SH000905 INDEX EQUITY)

CSI 500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

There should be 60 changes in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 11% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY17.56bn (US$2.48bn). The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI 1000 Index Rebalance Preview: 100 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$4bn Round-Trip Trade

There should be 100 changes in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.9% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY14.4bn (US$2.04bn). The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

China ETF Inflows & Implications: YTD Inflows Nearing US$150bn

Nearly US$150bn has flowed into mainland China ETFs year to date. 97% of that has gone into ETFs tracking headline indices, but there has been...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: 22 Changes & US$700m Trade

There could be 8 changes for the Chinext and 5 changes for the Chinext50. There are 4 overlapping stocks and there are stocks with over 1x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI 500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

There should be 60 changes in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 11% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY17.56bn (US$2.48bn). The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI 1000 Index Rebalance Preview: 100 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$4bn Round-Trip Trade

There should be 100 changes in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.9% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY14.4bn (US$2.04bn). The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

China ETF Inflows & Implications: YTD Inflows Nearing US$150bn

Nearly US$150bn has flowed into mainland China ETFs year to date. 97% of that has gone into ETFs tracking headline indices, but there has been...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: 22 Changes & US$700m Trade

There could be 8 changes for the Chinext and 5 changes for the Chinext50. There are 4 overlapping stocks and there are stocks with over 1x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: 22 Changes & US$700m Trade