Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP A50 (2822 HK)</a> in September.</li>
<li>There should be over 1x ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nari-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4364:1" rel="noopener">NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH)</a> and over 1x ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaanxi-coal-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11254:1" rel="noopener">Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP A50 (2822 HK) in September.
There should be over 1x ADV to buy on NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH) and over 1x ADV to sell on Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH). 
There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In a move to shore up liquidity, but not to repay debt, Evergrande has sold stakes and "right to debt" in four development projects to SOEs at “fire sale” prices;</li>
<li>Only USD 47.2 bn in liabilities to go Chairman Hui, but didn’t you say less than two weeks ago “no fire sales”?; and    </li>
<li>
Municipalities, investors, and CINDA are picking off Evergrande assets on the cheap as well.    </li>
</ul>


In a move to shore up liquidity, but not to repay debt, Evergrande has sold stakes and "right to debt" in four development projects to SOEs at “fire sale” prices;
Only USD 47.2 bn in liabilities to go Chairman Hui, but didn’t you say less than two weeks ago “no fire sales”?; and    

Municipalities, investors, and CINDA are picking off Evergrande assets on the cheap as well.    


China Evergrande Group – Drop In The Bucket

<ul>
<li>OCBC reported 4Q21 net profit of SGD 973 mn, declining 20.5% linked quarter, as a result of an increase in loss provisions and higher costs; </li>
<li>Were it not for the 51.8% decline in Singapore NPLs, credit quality would have been disastrous for OCBC with credit falling off of a cliff regionally; and </li>
<li>Given the increase in net new NPLs, reserves would appear to now be wanting by SGD 2.8 bn plus or nearly three quarters of bottom-line results. </li>
</ul>


OCBC reported 4Q21 net profit of SGD 973 mn, declining 20.5% linked quarter, as a result of an increase in loss provisions and higher costs; 
Were it not for the 51.8% decline in Singapore NPLs, credit quality would have been disastrous for OCBC with credit falling off of a cliff regionally; and 
Given the increase in net new NPLs, reserves would appear to now be wanting by SGD 2.8 bn plus or nearly three quarters of bottom-line results. 


Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.- Another Weak Print

<ul>
<li>The US Trade Representative (“USTR”) office added Tencent and Alibaba Group to the US government's latest "notorious markets" list; </li>
<li>Similar to being implicated in running afoul of regulators in mainland China, Tencent “strongly disagrees” with the USTR label; and</li>
<li>*We look forward to Tencent’s 4Q21 results announcement on March 23, 2021 where management will continue to refuse to discuss anything meaningful.</li>
</ul>


The US Trade Representative (“USTR”) office added Tencent and Alibaba Group to the US government's latest "notorious markets" list; 
Similar to being implicated in running afoul of regulators in mainland China, Tencent “strongly disagrees” with the USTR label; and
*We look forward to Tencent’s 4Q21 results announcement on March 23, 2021 where management will continue to refuse to discuss anything meaningful.


Tencent Holdings – Bad News On The Doorstep

<ul>
<li>The shares of Evergrande aren’t worth the paper their printed on;  </li>
<li>Shanghai Construction receives a positive court outcome at expense of Evergrande; and</li>
<li>The likelihood that Evergrande has enough liquidity and will not have a fire sale of assets is nil – we can add Evergrande to the list of the walking dead. </li>
</ul>


The shares of Evergrande aren’t worth the paper their printed on;  
Shanghai Construction receives a positive court outcome at expense of Evergrande; and
The likelihood that Evergrande has enough liquidity and will not have a fire sale of assets is nil – we can add Evergrande to the list of the walking dead. 


China Evergrande Group – Be A Hero, Take It To Zero

Hong Kong

CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Hong Kong. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the FTSE China A50 Index. The Fund invests most of its total assets in the equities of member companies of the FTSE China A50 Index. This is a RQFII fund.

CSOP FTSE China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

There could be two sets of the changes for the 2823/2822 ETFs in September. A couple of stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade. There are few close...

Brian Freitas

China Evergrande Group – Drop In The Bucket

EVERGRANDE: In a move to shore up liquidity but not repay debt, Evergrande has sold stakes in four development projects to SOEs at “fire sale”...

Thomas J. Monaco

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.- Another Weak Print

OCBC: OCBC reported 4Q21 net profit decline of 20.5% QOQ due to increases in loss provisions and costs. Were it not for the improvement in...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Bad News On The Doorstep

TENCENT: The USTR office added Tencent and Alibaba Group to the US government's latest "notorious markets" list. Similar to running afoul of...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Be A Hero, Take It To Zero

EVERGRANDE: The shares of Evergrande aren’t worth the paper printed on. Shanghai Construction receives a positive court outcome against Evergrande....

Thomas J. Monaco