Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Poor Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported a weak FY 2H21 result, declining SGD 35.0 mn (14.6%) on an HOH basis. Higher than expected costs was the primary culprit for the overall disappointing result, increasing SGD 28.7 mn (11.6%) HOH pushing the expense to revenue ratio 410 bp higher to 51.8%. Cost pressures will not end, as SGX gave guidance that costs are due to increase between 9%-11%, as revenue begins to contract; and*Peripatetic: Recently, SGX announced its acquisition of MaxxTrader, its third acquisition after BidFX and Scientific Beta in 2020. Management is also considering getting involved Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). Significant strategic alternatives are needed at SGX, if it is to avoid being hollowed out by the Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK).

*Poor Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported a weak FY 2H21 result, declining SGD 35.0 mn (14.6%) on an HOH basis. Higher than expected costs was the primary culprit for the overall disappointing result, increasing SGD 28.7 mn (11.6%) HOH pushing the expense to revenue ratio 410 bp higher to 51.8%. Cost pressures will not end, as SGX gave guidance that costs are due to increase between 9%-11%, as revenue begins to contract; and*Peripatetic: Recently, SGX announced its acquisition of MaxxTrader, its third acquisition after BidFX and Scientific Beta in 2020. Management is also considering getting involved Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). Significant strategic alternatives are needed at SGX, if it is to avoid being hollowed out by the Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK).

Singapore Exchange – Completely Distracted

*Another Poor Showing: Hang Seng Bank (11.HK) [Hang Seng] reported a 1H21 result of HKD 8.8 bn, improving HKD 1.2 bn (16.3%) HOH. However, core operating results improved only nominally by HKD 52 mn or 0.8% over the period. Were it not for the unreasonable decline of HKD 639 mn (65.3%) in loss provisions as credit deteriorated, results would have been far worse;  and*Provisions Now Significantly Understated: While the current NPL ratio is not alarming on its face, the HOH increase in net new NPLs is HKD 1.7 bn or 23.5% annualized - decelerating from the HKD 3.0 bn or 201% annualized at 2H20. We find Hang Seng under-provided for to the tune of HKD 10.6 bn or nearly 1.5x the bank’s core operating result.

*Another Poor Showing: Hang Seng Bank (11.HK) [Hang Seng] reported a 1H21 result of HKD 8.8 bn, improving HKD 1.2 bn (16.3%) HOH. However, core operating results improved only nominally by HKD 52 mn or 0.8% over the period. Were it not for the unreasonable decline of HKD 639 mn (65.3%) in loss provisions as credit deteriorated, results would have been far worse;  and*Provisions Now Significantly Understated: While the current NPL ratio is not alarming on its face, the HOH increase in net new NPLs is HKD 1.7 bn or 23.5% annualized - decelerating from the HKD 3.0 bn or 201% annualized at 2H20. We find Hang Seng under-provided for to the tune of HKD 10.6 bn or nearly 1.5x the bank’s core operating result.

Hang Seng Bank – Wuihfung Remains In Full Control

*De-Merger Dates Set: Prudential Plc (PRU.LN) [Prudential] disclosed the timeframe of its Jackson Financial (Jackson) de-merger. Jackson (JXN.US) will become a separately listed company on the New York Stock Exchange. After the de-merger, Prudential will hold approximately 19.7% of Jackson’s common shares and will monetize a portion of this within a year of the de-merger; and*Franchise Of The Future:  We see Prudential's exiting of its US business is a positive, as it will reduce the group's exposure to US macro and transition the group into a pure Asian play. We believe that Prudential's Asian franchise is impressive with a strong growth outlook.

*De-Merger Dates Set: Prudential Plc (PRU.LN) [Prudential] disclosed the timeframe of its Jackson Financial (Jackson) de-merger. Jackson (JXN.US) will become a separately listed company on the New York Stock Exchange. After the de-merger, Prudential will hold approximately 19.7% of Jackson’s common shares and will monetize a portion of this within a year of the de-merger; and*Franchise Of The Future:  We see Prudential's exiting of its US business is a positive, as it will reduce the group's exposure to US macro and transition the group into a pure Asian play. We believe that Prudential's Asian franchise is impressive with a strong growth outlook.

*Competitor Sees 73% Upside:  A bulge bracket competitor recently published a table pounding note on the shares of Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent], which states that the shares are undervalued to the tune of 73%; and  *We Beg To Differ: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". We have witnessed fines at Tencent, new user WeChat suspensions. Tencent may have to give up its exclusive music rights and possibly dispose of Kuwo and Kugou, and likely form of a financial holding company. The big table pounding report and a massive need for equity; this has all of the markings of the usual near-term gigantic capital raise.

*Competitor Sees 73% Upside:  A bulge bracket competitor recently published a table pounding note on the shares of Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent], which states that the shares are undervalued to the tune of 73%; and  *We Beg To Differ: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". We have witnessed fines at Tencent, new user WeChat suspensions. Tencent may have to give up its exclusive music rights and possibly dispose of Kuwo and Kugou, and likely form of a financial holding company. The big table pounding report and a massive need for equity; this has all of the markings of the usual near-term gigantic capital raise.      

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

China

CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Hong Kong. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the FTSE China A50 Index. The Fund invests most of its total assets in the equities of member companies of the FTSE China A50 Index. This is a RQFII fund.

CSOP FTSE China A50 (82822 HK)

Singapore Exchange – Completely Distracted

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX FY 2H21 result declined 14.6% HOH due to rising costs. This is a distracted company with three bolt-ons in last year....

Thomas J. Monaco

Hang Seng Bank – Wuihfung Remains In Full Control

HANG SENG BANK: Hang Seng reported a poor 1H21 HOH operating result. If provisions didn't decline 65%, results would have been worse. It under...

Thomas J. Monaco

Prudential Plc – Action Jackson

PRUDENTIAL PLC: Pru disclosed the timeframe of its Jackson de-merger. Jackson will list on the NYSE, and Pru will retain 19.7% of Jackson. This...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings - Bulge Bracket Bull

TENCENT HOLDINGS: A competitor recently suggested the shares of Tencent have 73% upside. We beg to differ, further pain in these shares is expected...

Thomas J. Monaco

DBS Group Holdings – Bad Print

DBS: DBS QOQ 2Q21 results declined 15.1% due to poor revenues and higher provisions. We worry that DBS has not caught the LVB risk, net new NPLs re...

Thomas J. Monaco