IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>’s IFA considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>’s scheme privatisation offer of HK$155 per share to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key condition is scheme approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders' rejection). The scheme vote remains low risk.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.0%/7.1%.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)’s IFA considers HSBC Holdings (5 HK)’s scheme privatisation offer of HK$155 per share to be fair and reasonable. 
The key condition is scheme approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders' rejection). The scheme vote remains low risk.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and privatisation precedents. This is done. At the current price and for a 4 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.0%/7.1%.


Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Vote on 8 January

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> announced an Offer from controlling parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>HSBC offered HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price was final. A third interim dividend was bolted on. Optically - and fundamentally - the price was bang on.</li>
<li>
The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1215/2025121500037.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Doc</a> is now out, with the Court Meeting on the 8th January 2026.  Payment around 4th Feb. The IFA, in a bare-bones report, concluded "fair &amp; reasonable". </li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th October, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced an Offer from controlling parent, HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme.
HSBC offered HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price was final. A third interim dividend was bolted on. Optically - and fundamentally - the price was bang on.

The Scheme Doc is now out, with the Court Meeting on the 8th January 2026.  Payment around 4th Feb. The IFA, in a bare-bones report, concluded "fair &amp; reasonable". 


Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC's Offer. Clean Deal.

<ul>
<li>Since announcing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a>'s Offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.</li>
<li>Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.  </li>
<li>HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.
</li>
</ul>


Since announcing HSBC (5 HK)'s Offer, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.
Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.  
HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.



Hang Seng (11 HK)'s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits

<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> is trading tight  - perhaps too tight - to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.</li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>. Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>. Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.</li>
<li>Richard Li's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a> is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks. </li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) is trading tight  - perhaps too tight - to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.
Be long Welcia Holdings (3141 JP). Be long Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP). Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.
Richard Li's HKT Ltd (6823 HK) is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

Hong Kong

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

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Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)