Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Related Insights
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-consumers-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-their-home-equity-grows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53210" rel="noopener">China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows</a> 
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our focus is not on the decimation of earnings at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> but rather the granular detail of stage 2 and stage 3 loans</li>
<li>There is tremendous growth in stage 2 loans in the quarter, which means the bank enters the quarter with a far higher pool that can migrate to stage 3</li>
<li>Stage 3 remains markedly higher provisions, and the bank's rise in credit costs is still fairly low, it can rise another 50% before hitting average rates </li>
</ul>


Our focus is not on the decimation of earnings at Standard Chartered (STAN LN) but rather the granular detail of stage 2 and stage 3 loans
There is tremendous growth in stage 2 loans in the quarter, which means the bank enters the quarter with a far higher pool that can migrate to stage 3
Stage 3 remains markedly higher provisions, and the bank's rise in credit costs is still fairly low, it can rise another 50% before hitting average rates 


STAN - Stage 2 Loans Surge | Expect Migration to Stage 3 Loans | Credit Costs Can Move 50% Higher

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

There is a BIG trade coming up starting next Monday. If you have exposure in Indonesia, it is worth thinking about. <hr>Back in January 2021, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> - the country's largest lender by assets - was "exploring a plan to raise at least US$1bn through a rights issue."Almost a year ago in October 2020 BBRI signed a conditional deal to merge their Shariah-compliant unit with those of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> and there had been talks (since Feb 2020?) with the government for BBRI to take over state-owned pawnshop lender PT Pegadaian and financing firm PT Permodalan Nasional Madani to provide affordable loans to SMEs. A deal for BBRI to take over those two firms was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/bank-bri-ma-idUSL4N2KE2J5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decided</a> in early February, and the need for a rights issue was set, though this required parliamentary approval and BBRI needed shareholder approval for the rights issue - which it announced in June and <a href="https://www.thejakartapost.com/adv/2021/07/23/bri-egms-approves-rights-issue-of-28-billion-shares.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received</a> in July - under the mechanism of Capital Increase by Granting Securities Subscription Rights First (PMHMETD). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> discussed the bank's initiatives and aspirations in the micro lending space in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-bbri-ij-both-micro-and-digital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48613" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Both Micro and Digital</a> in February followed by a discussion of the rights issue itself in early July in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-rakyat-indonesia-bbri-ij-ultra-micro-and-digital-aspirations-in-place" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54111" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Ultra-Micro and Digital Aspirations in Place</a>. Angus made a strong case for the bank in both insights and they are worth a read. The shares have basically had an overhang in place since early this year but in June when it became clear the rights issue would be Very Large, that overhang became more pronounced. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/528/original/Screenshot+2021-09-08+at+2.18.15+PM.png?1631081912" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228528"></figure></section>The presentation made to get this past shareholders (never really in doubt as the govt owns 57%) announced the development of an "Ultra-Micro segment" to create an Ultra-Micro Ecosystem as the foundation for further growth, structured under Ultra Micro Holding owned by BRI, in the form of previous precedents of SOE development platforms such as Biofarma/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofarma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5319:1" rel="noopener">Indofarma (INAF IJ)</a> and Inalum's investment in Indonesian mining companies. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/527/original/Screenshot+2021-09-08+at+2.02.45+PM.png?1631080980" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228527"></figure></section>The way this would be done is a rights offering to offer 230,128,553 rights for every 1,000,000,000 Existing Shares (roughly 0.23013 for 1), with the government contributing its ownership of Pegadaian and PNM in kind to fulfil its rights exercise consideration payment.That means the ~0.23 to 1 Rights Offering would be in effect for the other 43% of holders, which is a vast array of local and international institutions and local retail shareholders, with an Exercise Price of IDR 3400/share, and assuming 100% participation, that would garner IDR 41.15trln in proceeds, which, according to the roadshow <a href="https://www.ir-bri.com/misc/PS/2021/RI-Deal-Roadshow-Presentation-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a> released in early September, "will be used for working capital for BRI in order to develop an ultra-micro ecosystem as well as micro and small businesses."The shares traded on the regular market went ex-rights today. Rights will be distributed on 10 September, traded from 13-22 September and exercised in the same period, with the last day for Excess Rights Subscription the 24 September and allotment of Excess Rights on 27 September.There is considerable opportunity here. Some short-term, some longer-term. But it is considerable because there is a fair bit of potential overhang here.I consider the opportunity set below the fold.

There is a BIG trade coming up starting next Monday. If you have exposure in Indonesia, it is worth thinking about. Back in January 2021, Bloomberg reported that Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) - the country's largest lender by assets - was "exploring a plan to raise at least US$1bn through a rights issue."Almost a year ago in October 2020 BBRI signed a conditional deal to merge their Shariah-compliant unit with those of Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) and there had been talks (since Feb 2020?) with the government for BBRI to take over state-owned pawnshop lender PT Pegadaian and financing firm PT Permodalan Nasional Madani to provide affordable loans to SMEs. A deal for BBRI to take over those two firms was decided in early February, and the need for a rights issue was set, though this required parliamentary approval and BBRI needed shareholder approval for the rights issue - which it announced in June and received in July - under the mechanism of Capital Increase by Granting Securities Subscription Rights First (PMHMETD). Angus Mackintosh discussed the bank's initiatives and aspirations in the micro lending space in Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Both Micro and Digital in February followed by a discussion of the rights issue itself in early July in Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Ultra-Micro and Digital Aspirations in Place. Angus made a strong case for the bank in both insights and they are worth a read. The shares have basically had an overhang in place since early this year but in June when it became clear the rights issue would be Very Large, that overhang became more pronounced. The presentation made to get this past shareholders (never really in doubt as the govt owns 57%) announced the development of an "Ultra-Micro segment" to create an Ultra-Micro Ecosystem as the foundation for further growth, structured under Ultra Micro Holding owned by BRI, in the form of previous precedents of SOE development platforms such as Biofarma/Indofarma (INAF IJ) and Inalum's investment in Indonesian mining companies. The way this would be done is a rights offering to offer 230,128,553 rights for every 1,000,000,000 Existing Shares (roughly 0.23013 for 1), with the government contributing its ownership of Pegadaian and PNM in kind to fulfil its rights exercise consideration payment.That means the ~0.23 to 1 Rights Offering would be in effect for the other 43% of holders, which is a vast array of local and international institutions and local retail shareholders, with an Exercise Price of IDR 3400/share, and assuming 100% participation, that would garner IDR 41.15trln in proceeds, which, according to the roadshow presentation released in early September, "will be used for working capital for BRI in order to develop an ultra-micro ecosystem as well as micro and small businesses."The shares traded on the regular market went ex-rights today. Rights will be distributed on 10 September, traded from 13-22 September and exercised in the same period, with the last day for Excess Rights Subscription the 24 September and allotment of Excess Rights on 27 September.There is considerable opportunity here. Some short-term, some longer-term. But it is considerable because there is a fair bit of potential overhang here.I consider the opportunity set below the fold. 

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)'s Mega Rights Issue - Plenty of Opportunity Short-Term and Long-Term

<ul>
<li>The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.</li>
<li>There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. </li>
<li>Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?</li>
</ul>


The bank's announcement that it expects at least a 30% decline in profit due to impairments is rare, in its clarity, not unexpected in the content.
There may be gaining momentum for banks in Greater China to more clearly show their credit metrics, which given economies there, are not likely to be positive. 
Credit costs to loans have been in decline at this bank, and the surge they are forecasting, is understandable; perhaps partly given developments at China Evergrande?


Bank of Jiujiang - Rare Announcement Expecting at Least 30% Profit Decline

<ul>
<li>There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. </li>
<li>Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. </li>
</ul>


There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. 
Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. 
Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. 


BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

Hong Kong

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)

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