Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2><strong>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Our</strong><strong>Q2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%</strong>. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
<strong>At a static number of 34</strong><strong> stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </strong>with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li><strong>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</strong></li>
<li>
<strong>Stock specific focus:</strong> We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering / Equity Capital Markets

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering

<div><div><h2>Offering size</h2></div></div><div><p>Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) offers 18M shares, which account for 25.43% of the pre-IPO total shares, of which 55-75% are allocated to institutions. It will be listed on KOSPI.</p></div><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offering size"}'>Offering size</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"329180"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[1]C[-2]">329180</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Bourse"}'>Bourse</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI"}'>KOSPI</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offering"}'><strong>Offering</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8654230}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'><strong>18,000,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- % of SO"}'><strong>- % of pre-IPO SO</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.25433386315786916}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[5]C[-2]"><strong>25.43%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Institutional allotment"}'><strong>- Institutional allotment</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"55.00~75.00%"}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[5]C[-2]"><strong>55.00~75.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Who is HHI?</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>HHI is the world's largest shipbuilding company based in Korea. Since its establishment in 1973, it has maintained the No. 1 position in the global shipbuilding market since 1983.</li>
<li>Prior to the establishment of the holding company in 2017, Hyundai Heavy Industries was at the apex of a circular shareholding structure that led to Chung Mong-jun (owner) → Hyundai Heavy Industries → Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries → Hyundai Mipo Dockyard → Hyundai Heavy Industries.</li>
<li>In June 2019, Hyundai Heavy Industries conducted a physical division to take over Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering. It was divided into an intermediate holding company, Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering (KSOE), and an operating company, Hyundai Heavy Industries. For this reason, KSOE currently owns 100% of HHI.</li>
</ul>
</div><div><div><h2>Split</h2></div></div><div>
<p>This IPO is a 100% primary offering. As a result, this offering will see a capital increase rate of 25.43% with a shareholding dilution of 20.28%. This event is free of any additional options: cornerstone, clawback, or greenshoe.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
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<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Split"}'>Split</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Primary %"}'><strong>Primary %</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[3]C[-2]"><strong>100.00%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Secondary %"}'>Secondary %</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[-2]">0.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Capital increase rate"}'><strong>Capital increase rate</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.25433386315786916}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[-2]"><strong>25.43%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Dilution"}'>Dilution</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.20276408907399399}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[-2]">20.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><div><div></div></div><div>
<div><div><h2>Schedule</h2></div></div>
<div>
<p>The book opens on August 26 (September 2 for local institutions) and runs until September 3. The allotment will be on September 6, finalizing an offering price. The subscription falls on September 7.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
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<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Schedule"}'>Schedule</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book open"}'><strong>Book open</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44434}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 08. 26</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book close"}'>Book close</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44442}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allotment"}'><strong>Allotment</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44445}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 09. 06</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription"}'><strong>Subscription</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44446}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'><strong>2021. 09. 07</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'>Payment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44449}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy\". \"mm\". \"dd","3":1}'>2021. 09. 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'>Listing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div><div><h2>Pricing</h2></div></div>
<div><p>This IPO also uses PBR. The corporate value was determined after selecting the following five companies (one from Korea and four from China):</p></div>
<div><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daewoo-shipbuilding-marine-engineering" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering (042660 KS)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shipbuilding-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5789:1" rel="noopener">China Shipbuilding Industry (601989 CH)</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cssc-holdings-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2464:1" rel="noopener">China CSSC Holdings Ltd A (600150 CH)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cssc-offshore-marine-engg-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5089:1" rel="noopener">Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg Group (317 HK)</a> </li>
</ol></div>
<div>
<p>The <strong>average P/B multiple</strong> of these five valuation peers come at <strong>1.12x</strong> based on their 1Q21 financials.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"FY2021 1Q based annualized net earnings based P/E"}'>As of FY2021 1Q</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Note"}'>Note</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"DSME"}'>DSME</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"China Shipbuilding Industry Company Ltd"}'>China Shipbuilding Industry Company Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"China CSSC Holdings Ltd"}'>China CSSC Holdings Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd"}'>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"CSSC Offshore and Marine Engineering Group Co Ltd"}'>CSSC Offshore and Marine Engineering Group Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Equity"}'>Equity</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"A"}'>A</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3635.589}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩3,635.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15324.249}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩15,324.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9411.029}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩9,411.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6066.149}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩6,066.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3057.162}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩3,057.2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Non controlling interest"}'>Non-controlling interest</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"B"}'>B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩0.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":157.608}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩157.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1247.454}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩1,247.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":186.08}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩186.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":550.639}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩550.6B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Applied equity"}'>Applied equity</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"C=A-B"}'>C=A-B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3635.589}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">₩3,635.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15166.641}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">₩15,166.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8163.575000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">₩8,163.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5880.069}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">₩5,880.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2506.5229999999997}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">₩2,506.5B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Reference market cap"}'>Reference market cap</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"D"}'>D</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3401.114}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩3,401.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15590.917}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩15,590.9B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11966.681}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩11,966.7B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4552.47}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩4,552.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3504.253}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩3,504.3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PBR"}'><strong>PBR</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"E=D÷C"}'><strong>E=D÷C</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.94}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'><strong>0.94x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.03}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'><strong>1.03x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.47}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'><strong>1.47x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.77}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'><strong>0.77x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'><strong>1.40x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Average PBR"}'><strong>Average PBR</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'><strong>-</strong></td>
<td colspan="5" rowspan="1" style="text-align: center;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.12}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'><strong>1.12x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The averaged P/B multiple of 1.12x was applied to HHI's equity of ₩5,035.7B from the second quarter of this year. Then, an IPO flow of ₩936.0B (at the lower end of the indicative price band) was added. As a result, we have <strong>a reference market cap of ₩6.58T</strong>, giving <strong>a price per share of ₩74,094</strong>.</p>
</div>
<table class="table table-striped">
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<col width="100">
<col width="100">
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<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 719.119px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P/E valuation"}'>HHI: P/B valuation</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 239.702px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Average PBR"}'>Average PBR</td>
<td style="width: 161.804px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"A"}'>A</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 317.614px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.12}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-4]C[0]">1.12x</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 239.702px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Applied equity"}'><strong>Applied equity</strong></td>
<td style="width: 161.804px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"B"}'><strong>B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 317.614px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5035.677}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'><strong>₩5,035.7B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 239.702px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"IPO inflow"}'><strong>IPO inflow</strong></td>
<td style="width: 161.804px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"C"}'><strong>C</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 317.614px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":936}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'><strong>₩936.0B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 239.702px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Reference market cap"}'><strong>Reference market cap</strong></td>
<td style="width: 161.804px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"D=(AxB)+C"}'><strong>D=(AxB)+C</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 317.614px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6577.587}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'><strong>₩6,577.6B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 239.702px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Post-IPO SO"}'>Post-IPO SO</td>
<td style="width: 161.804px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"E"}'>E</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 317.614px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":88773116}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0",1]'>88,773,116</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 239.702px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price per share"}'><strong>Price per share</strong></td>
<td style="width: 161.804px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"F=D÷E"}'><strong>F=D÷E</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 317.614px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":74094}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0"}'><strong>₩74,094</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 719.119px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The <strong>indicative price band</strong> lies between <strong>₩52,000 and ₩60,000</strong>. This is obtained by applying a <strong>discount rate of</strong><strong>19.02% to 29.82%</strong> to the market cap of ₩6.58T calculated through PBR. This much discount gives a <strong>P/B multiple of 0.77x to 0.89x</strong>.</p>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pricing"}'>Pricing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Low"}'>Low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"High"}'>High</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'><strong>Price</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":52000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'><strong>₩52,000</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'><strong>₩60,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Base deal size"}'>Base deal size</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":936}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩936.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1080}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩1,080.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Institutional allotment (55%)"}'>- Institutional allotment (55%)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":514.8000000000001}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*55%">₩514.8B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":594}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*55%">₩594.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Implied market cap"}'>Implied market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4616.202032}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R23C3/1000000000">₩4,616.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5326.38696}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R23C3/1000000000">₩5,326.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Discount"}'><strong>- Discount</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2981887872162388}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R24C3-R[-4]C[0])/R24C3"><strong>29.82%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1902178314033525}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R24C3-R[-4]C[0])/R24C3"><strong>19.02%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Implied PBR</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>0.77x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>0.89x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>

Offering sizeHyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) offers 18M shares, which account for 25.43% of the pre-IPO total shares, of which 55-75% are allocated to institutions. It will be listed on KOSPI.





Offering size

Ticker
329180


Bourse
KOSPI


Offering
18,000,000


- % of pre-IPO SO
25.43%


- Institutional allotment
55.00~75.00%

Source: DART


Who is HHI?

HHI is the world's largest shipbuilding company based in Korea. Since its establishment in 1973, it has maintained the No. 1 position in the global shipbuilding market since 1983.
Prior to the establishment of the holding company in 2017, Hyundai Heavy Industries was at the apex of a circular shareholding structure that led to Chung Mong-jun (owner) → Hyundai Heavy Industries → Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries → Hyundai Mipo Dockyard → Hyundai Heavy Industries.
In June 2019, Hyundai Heavy Industries conducted a physical division to take over Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering. It was divided into an intermediate holding company, Korea Shipbuilding &amp; Offshore Engineering (KSOE), and an operating company, Hyundai Heavy Industries. For this reason, KSOE currently owns 100% of HHI.

Split
This IPO is a 100% primary offering. As a result, this offering will see a capital increase rate of 25.43% with a shareholding dilution of 20.28%. This event is free of any additional options: cornerstone, clawback, or greenshoe.






Split

Primary %
100.00%


Secondary %
0.00%


Capital increase rate
25.43%


Dilution
20.28%

Source: DART



Schedule

The book opens on August 26 (September 2 for local institutions) and runs until September 3. The allotment will be on September 6, finalizing an offering price. The subscription falls on September 7.






Schedule

Book open
2021. 08. 26


Book close
2021. 09. 03


Allotment
2021. 09. 06


Subscription
2021. 09. 07


Payment
2021. 09. 10


Listing
-

Source: DART


Pricing
This IPO also uses PBR. The corporate value was determined after selecting the following five companies (one from Korea and four from China):

Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering (042660 KS)
China Shipbuilding Industry (601989 CH)

China CSSC Holdings Ltd A (600150 CH) 

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) 

Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg Group (317 HK) 


The average P/B multiple of these five valuation peers come at 1.12x based on their 1Q21 financials.












As of FY2021 1Q
Note
DSME
China Shipbuilding Industry Company Ltd
China CSSC Holdings Ltd
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd
CSSC Offshore and Marine Engineering Group Co Ltd


Equity
A
₩3,635.6B
₩15,324.2B
₩9,411.0B
₩6,066.1B
₩3,057.2B


Non-controlling interest
B
₩0.0B
₩157.6B
₩1,247.5B
₩186.1B
₩550.6B


Applied equity
C=A-B
₩3,635.6B
₩15,166.6B
₩8,163.6B
₩5,880.1B
₩2,506.5B


Reference market cap
D
₩3,401.1B
₩15,590.9B
₩11,966.7B
₩4,552.5B
₩3,504.3B


PBR
E=D÷C
0.94x
1.03x
1.47x
0.77x
1.40x


Average PBR
-
1.12x

Source: DART


The averaged P/B multiple of 1.12x was applied to HHI's equity of ₩5,035.7B from the second quarter of this year. Then, an IPO flow of ₩936.0B (at the lower end of the indicative price band) was added. As a result, we have a reference market cap of ₩6.58T, giving a price per share of ₩74,094.








HHI: P/B valuation

Average PBR
A
1.12x


Applied equity
B
₩5,035.7B


IPO inflow
C
₩936.0B


Reference market cap
D=(AxB)+C
₩6,577.6B


Post-IPO SO
E
88,773,116


Price per share
F=D÷E
₩74,094

Source: DART


The indicative price band lies between ₩52,000 and ₩60,000. This is obtained by applying a discount rate of19.02% to 29.82% to the market cap of ₩6.58T calculated through PBR. This much discount gives a P/B multiple of 0.77x to 0.89x.








Pricing
Low
High


Price
₩52,000
₩60,000


Base deal size
₩936.0B
₩1,080.0B


- Institutional allotment (55%)
₩514.8B
₩594.0B


Implied market cap
₩4,616.2B
₩5,326.4B


- Discount
29.82%
19.02%


Implied PBR
0.77x
0.89x

Source: DART





Hyundai Heavy Industries IPO: Offering Details & Valuation Issues

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>On 3 June, President Biden amended Executive Order 13959 with respect to the threat posed by the military-industrial complex of the People’s Republic of China, and expanded the list of companies to include entities that operate in the defense and related materiel sector or the surveillance technology sector in China, or own, or are owned, or are controlled by persons that operate in the above sectors.</p><p>There were a few entities that appeared in Trump's list that were dropped while there were new entities that were added to the current list.</p><p>Some major changes were that the name of the list was changed from Communist Chinese Military Companies (CCMC) to Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies (CMIC), the list would be maintained by the Treasury Department as opposed to the Defense Department, and restrictions on subsidiaries would apply only if the subsidiary was explicitly named in the list.</p><p>It has been reported in the media, quoting senior officials, that the list will be updated on a rolling basis. As we were typing out the Insight, Reuters published an article that says <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-biden-china-investment/analysis-more-chinese-companies-could-fall-under-bidens-broader-investment-ban-idUSL2N2NM13H" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more Chinese companies could be added to the investment ban</a>.</p><p>In this Insight, we try to identify some of the subsidiaries of companies that could be added to the CMIC list where the parent entity is already included on the list.</p>

On 3 June, President Biden amended Executive Order 13959 with respect to the threat posed by the military-industrial complex of the People’s Republic of China, and expanded the list of companies to include entities that operate in the defense and related materiel sector or the surveillance technology sector in China, or own, or are owned, or are controlled by persons that operate in the above sectors.There were a few entities that appeared in Trump's list that were dropped while there were new entities that were added to the current list.Some major changes were that the name of the list was changed from Communist Chinese Military Companies (CCMC) to Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies (CMIC), the list would be maintained by the Treasury Department as opposed to the Defense Department, and restrictions on subsidiaries would apply only if the subsidiary was explicitly named in the list.It has been reported in the media, quoting senior officials, that the list will be updated on a rolling basis. As we were typing out the Insight, Reuters published an article that says more Chinese companies could be added to the investment ban.In this Insight, we try to identify some of the subsidiaries of companies that could be added to the CMIC list where the parent entity is already included on the list.

POTUS Executive Order: Potential Additions to the CMIC List

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>Spreads narrowed sharply this week with 68 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 32 widening. The big winner on the week was Consumer narrowing 2.46% as every spread in the space narrowed despite five of six stocks falling in Hs (i.e. As fell even more). </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-chenming-paper-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13775:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Chenming Paper H (1812 HK)</a> situation intruded on the H/S spreads this week as the decision to convert the B shares to Hs (described by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shandong-chenming-paper-1812-hk-the-h-b-convergence-trade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49247" rel="noopener">Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK): The H/B Convergence Trade</a> mid-week) caused ructions in the H/A spread.</p>
<p>But overall, it was a decent week. Only two sectors saw spreads widen (Energy and Utilities), both accompanied by net southbound selling in the week to Wednesday (the last day to which we have granular name-by-name data).</p>
<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.46%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.74%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.39%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.56%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.36%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.92%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.53%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.50%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.54%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.15%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.61%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.33%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.91%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p><strong>Sector Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.88%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.41%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  0.26%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  1.02%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p><strong>All Market Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.96%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.59%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.05%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  1.22%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div><div><div></div></div><p><span>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to fall. This past week ended at 20% down from 23% in the ten days to 12 March. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still under 20%.</span></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/770/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+8.25.25+PM.png?1616243179" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195770"></figure></section><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div><p>The past week has seen H-shares come off, but spreads narrow as Hs outperformed their As pretty dramatically. Interestingly, the narrower the spread, to start with, the better the performance on the week. Ideally, spread players want to see that red line sloping downward from upper left to lower right because even a big spread movement for a 70% discount stock means very large performance is needed to catch up. </p></div><div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/724/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.41.02+PM.png?1616233277" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195724"></figure></section></div><div>
<p>The average discount has started tightening again and we are at 38% which is where the spread rebounded to un Q2 of 2020 after widening in the Covid-crash. </p>
<p>In 2019, spreads spent a fairly long time in the 34-36% average. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/728/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.44.03+PM.png?1616233457" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195728"></figure></section></section><hr><div><div><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2></div></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 81 recommendations last week.</li>
<li>Positive alpha returned. There were 49 long spreads and 32 short spreads which gained on average 27bp against the delta-neutral gain of 0.20%, indicating spread alpha of 7bp on the week. This is back to a good trend after a horrible week the week before.</li>
<li>There are <em>nearly</em> 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul></div><hr><div><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div></div><div>
<p>The first sector discussed is Consumer. It was a complex week there. </p>
<ul>
<li>Five out of six H-shares were down on the week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> was up 10.6%.</li>
<li>All six spreads narrowed with the average H-share outperformance of A at 2.46%. It was a strong week for every spread in the group. </li>
<li>Normally when this happens, there is significant net selling by Southbound. This week saw net buying of HK$270mm to Wednesday, halting four straight weeks prior of net selling. </li>
</ul>
</div><div></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended keeping the shorts (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a>) and the long in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> and adding a long on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> H vs A.</p>
<p>Those trades lost an average of 0.51% last week in spread terms after losing 29bp the week before, and 16bp the week before that. Despite three losing weeks in a row, positioning in the sector is still up 262bp in four weeks. </p>
<p>This week's trade recommendations are below the fold.</p>
</div></div></div><div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/729/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.44.45+PM.png?1616233498" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195729"></figure></section></div><div><section>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section></div>


Spreads narrowed sharply this week with 68 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 32 widening. The big winner on the week was Consumer narrowing 2.46% as every spread in the space narrowed despite five of six stocks falling in Hs (i.e. As fell even more). 
The Shandong Chenming Paper H (1812 HK) situation intruded on the H/S spreads this week as the decision to convert the B shares to Hs (described by David Blennerhassett in Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK): The H/B Convergence Trade mid-week) caused ructions in the H/A spread.
But overall, it was a decent week. Only two sectors saw spreads widen (Energy and Utilities), both accompanied by net southbound selling in the week to Wednesday (the last day to which we have granular name-by-name data).


Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
+ 2.46%
+ 0.74%
-  0.14%
-  1.65%


Energy
-  0.39%
-  0.56%
-  0.36%
+ 0.67%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.92%
+ 0.53%
+ 1.19%
-  1.12%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 1.50%
+ 2.29%
-  0.54%
-  2.86%


Industrials
+ 1.19%
+ 0.15%
-  0.42%
-  1.20%


Materials
+ 1.42%
+ 0.61%
-  0.33%
-  0.84%


Utilities
-  0.91%
-  0.87%
-  1.25%
-  0.14%


Sector Average
+ 0.88%
+ 0.41%
-  0.26%
-  1.02%


All Market Average
+ 0.96%
+ 0.59%
+ 0.05%
-  1.22%


10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to fall. This past week ended at 20% down from 23% in the ten days to 12 March. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still under 20%.

The H/A Spread Market
The past week has seen H-shares come off, but spreads narrow as Hs outperformed their As pretty dramatically. Interestingly, the narrower the spread, to start with, the better the performance on the week. Ideally, spread players want to see that red line sloping downward from upper left to lower right because even a big spread movement for a 70% discount stock means very large performance is needed to catch up. 
The average discount has started tightening again and we are at 38% which is where the spread rebounded to un Q2 of 2020 after widening in the Covid-crash. 
In 2019, spreads spent a fairly long time in the 34-36% average. 
Last Week's Recommendations
There were 81 recommendations last week.
Positive alpha returned. There were 49 long spreads and 32 short spreads which gained on average 27bp against the delta-neutral gain of 0.20%, indicating spread alpha of 7bp on the week. This is back to a good trend after a horrible week the week before.
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  
Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer. It was a complex week there. 

Five out of six H-shares were down on the week. Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) was up 10.6%.
All six spreads narrowed with the average H-share outperformance of A at 2.46%. It was a strong week for every spread in the group. 
Normally when this happens, there is significant net selling by Southbound. This week saw net buying of HK$270mm to Wednesday, halting four straight weeks prior of net selling. 


Last week, I recommended keeping the shorts (BYD (1211 HK) and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)) and the long in Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) and adding a long on Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) H vs A.
Those trades lost an average of 0.51% last week in spread terms after losing 29bp the week before, and 16bp the week before that. Despite three losing weeks in a row, positioning in the sector is still up 262bp in four weeks. 
This week's trade recommendations are below the fold.
For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Consumer Strong, Spreads Narrowing Masks A-Share Weakness

<div><p>Spreads generally narrowed this week with 63 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 37 widening. The big winner on the week was Health Care and Tech narrowing 2.3%. One tech name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flat-glass-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1108:1" rel="noopener">Flat Glass (6865 HK)</a> moved 10+% while several healthcare names saw spreads narrow 3-7% each, all happening in a somewhat lackluster week for outright performance. Overall, five of seven sectors represented saw spreads narrow.</p></div><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.74%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.56%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.36%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.43%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.53%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.10%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.54%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.45%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.15%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.26%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.61%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.33%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 3.08%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.99%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.41%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.26%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.02%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.87%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>All Market Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.59%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.05%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.22%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.76%</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div><div></div></div><p>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be somewhat high at 23% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still just under 20%.</p><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div><p>The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. </p></div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/200/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+9.05.58+AM.png?1615683976" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194200"></figure><p></p></section></section><p>The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% plus or minus a small bit for the past eight weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). This week we narrowed just inside 40%.</p><section><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/201/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+9.08.22+AM.png?1615684116" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194201"></figure></section><p></p></section></section><hr><div><div><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2></div></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 80 recommendations last week.</li>
<li>This is the second week of negative alpha for the portfolio strategy in as many weeks. The average trade loss 22bp and only 31 of 80 trades recommended was up on the week. Shorts were particularly to blame as spread compression among the names in the 10-25% discount range was much wider than in the 35-60% discount range.</li>
<li>There are <em>nearly</em> 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul></div><hr><div><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div></div><div><p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week. Shares averaged down 1.4% this past week after gaining 0.6% the week before. The two gainers from the prior week both fell this week.</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Spreads were less tame, but momentum continues to be strong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> ended the week down 2% despite good production numbers out at the end of the week prior. BYD is down 28% in four weeks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> continued to fall and the spread continued to widen. It is now 13% wider over 4 weeks, but is still the second-narrowest spread in the sector at 21% vs the average spread in the sector at -30%.</li>
<li>Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$611mm after selling nearly that amount the prior week and HK$2bn in the two weeks before that. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> saw continued net buying by southbound, which added about 60bp of H-share float ownership on the week through Wednesday.</li>
</ul></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended staying short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A, unwinding the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> short, and replacing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> long with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a>. </p>
<p>Those trades lost an average of 0.29% last week in spread terms after losing 16bp the week before, but gaining 3.58% the week before that. </p>
</div></div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/249/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+11.50.08+AM.png?1615693825" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194249"></figure><p></p></section></section><section class="figure">For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section>
</div>

Spreads generally narrowed this week with 63 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 37 widening. The big winner on the week was Health Care and Tech narrowing 2.3%. One tech name Flat Glass (6865 HK) moved 10+% while several healthcare names saw spreads narrow 3-7% each, all happening in a somewhat lackluster week for outright performance. Overall, five of seven sectors represented saw spreads narrow.

Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
+ 0.74%
-  0.14%
-  1.65%
-  1.20%


Energy
-  0.56%
-  0.36%
+ 0.67%
+ 1.43%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.53%
+ 1.19%
-  1.12%
+ 0.10%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 2.29%
-  0.54%
-  2.86%
+ 1.45%


Industrials
+ 0.15%
-  0.42%
-  1.20%
+ 0.26%


Materials
+ 0.61%
-  0.33%
-  0.84%
+ 3.08%


Utilities
-  0.87%
-  1.25%
-  0.14%
+ 0.99%


Sector Average
+ 0.41%
-  0.26%
-  1.02%
+ 0.87%


All Market Average
+ 0.59%
+ 0.05%
-  1.22%
+ 0.76%

10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be somewhat high at 23% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still just under 20%.

The H/A Spread Market
The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% plus or minus a small bit for the past eight weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). This week we narrowed just inside 40%.Last Week's Recommendations
There were 80 recommendations last week.
This is the second week of negative alpha for the portfolio strategy in as many weeks. The average trade loss 22bp and only 31 of 80 trades recommended was up on the week. Shorts were particularly to blame as spread compression among the names in the 10-25% discount range was much wider than in the 35-60% discount range.
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  
Consumer SectorThe first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week. Shares averaged down 1.4% this past week after gaining 0.6% the week before. The two gainers from the prior week both fell this week.
Spreads were less tame, but momentum continues to be strong.

BYD (1211 HK) ended the week down 2% despite good production numbers out at the end of the week prior. BYD is down 28% in four weeks. 

Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) continued to fall and the spread continued to widen. It is now 13% wider over 4 weeks, but is still the second-narrowest spread in the sector at 21% vs the average spread in the sector at -30%.
Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$611mm after selling nearly that amount the prior week and HK$2bn in the two weeks before that. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) saw continued net buying by southbound, which added about 60bp of H-share float ownership on the week through Wednesday.

Last week, I recommended staying short BYD (1211 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A, unwinding the Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) short, and replacing the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) long with Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK). 
Those trades lost an average of 0.29% last week in spread terms after losing 16bp the week before, but gaining 3.58% the week before that. 

For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Energy Up, Spreads Wider, Pharmas Down Spreads Narrower

China

CSSC Offshore and Marine Engineering Group Company Limited manufactures and markets ships, containers, large steel structures, fiberglass boats, high-speed ships, and land use machines. The Company also offers ship polishing, repair and rental services.

CSSC Offshore and Marine Engin (600685 CH)

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CSSC Offshore and Marine Engin (600685 CH)

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