Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members as major beneficiaries of this massive waste, and therefore also the continued need for Xi Jinping to keep cleaning up the more blatant instances of corruption and wealth transfer. The commodities boom of &lsquo;00s proved to be backed by a massive wave of over-production, waste and a social movement to self-enrichment by the privileged class of China. President Xi Jinping in many ways is now contributing to lower commodity prices as a byproduct of his crackdown. There is a twist, though. Not only does this piece make a link between Chinese Corruption and massive waste, but it also puts in its conclusions a couple of directional political Catch-22s President Xi may face.&nbsp;

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members as major beneficiaries of this massive waste, and therefore also the continued need for Xi Jinping to keep cleaning up the more blatant instances of corruption and wealth transfer. The commodities boom of &lsquo;00s proved to be backed by a massive wave of over-production, waste and a social movement to self-enrichment by the privileged class of China. President Xi Jinping in many ways is now contributing to lower commodity prices as a byproduct of his crackdown. There is a twist, though. Not only does this piece make a link between Chinese Corruption and massive waste, but it also puts in its conclusions a couple of directional political Catch-22s President Xi may face.&nbsp;

Implications and Fallout from Absolute Corruption of the Political Elite

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal for O2 in the works, a Watson's listing or sale could be a source of permanent funding for this transaction. As an entity with its own currency, Watson's could accelerate its expansion program. The same is true if a retailer with global ambitions buys control.

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal for O2 in the works, a Watson's listing or sale could be a source of permanent funding for this transaction. As an entity with its own currency, Watson's could accelerate its expansion program. The same is true if a retailer with global ambitions buys control.

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's? Part Two

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange confirmed 40 ADDs and 25 DELETEs for Connect implementation on 9 March 2026.</li>
<li>The DELETE trade has worked well, with mean WAI return of -10.0% (21/25 negative); ADD stocks underperformed during WAI at -3.3% mean, consistent with the September 2025 event study.</li>
<li>Selectivity remains critical into implementation: favor narrative-aligned ADDs with moderate pre-event extension, maintain DELETE shorts on high-Connect-holding names, and monitor the three delayed ADDs for secondary entry points.</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange confirmed 40 ADDs and 25 DELETEs for Connect implementation on 9 March 2026.
The DELETE trade has worked well, with mean WAI return of -10.0% (21/25 negative); ADD stocks underperformed during WAI at -3.3% mean, consistent with the September 2025 event study.
Selectivity remains critical into implementation: favor narrative-aligned ADDs with moderate pre-event extension, maintain DELETE shorts on high-Connect-holding names, and monitor the three delayed ADDs for secondary entry points.


HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026): Implementation Today & Positioning

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.
In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.
Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.


HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Services is a conglomerate with a diversified portfolio of market-leading businesses, primarily in Hong Kong and mainland China. Its operations include toll roads, financial services, logistics, construction, and facilities management. The company was established in 2003 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

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CTF Services Limited (659 HK)

Implications and Fallout from Absolute Corruption of the Political Elite

I recently had occasion to update my thinking on China, its massive waste generation in the last 10-15 years, and Chinese Communist Party members...

Charles De Trenck

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's? Part Two

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026): Implementation Today & Positioning

HSCI rebal/HK Connect implementation on March 9th: We provide a follow-up note on what have done well and what to monitor.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

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