Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
0.08x P/B. That's where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.</li>
<li>
So, what's going on? Announcing an expected <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0830/2024083003082.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 </a>last week didn't help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.</li>
<li>Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. </li>
</ul>



0.08x P/B. That's where New World Development (17 HK) is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.

So, what's going on? Announcing an expected HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 last week didn't help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.
Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. 


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended May 29th.</li>
<li>We estimate that the net southbound flows in May were $0.6bn Outflows.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, China Mobile, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for the month ended May 29th.
We estimate that the net southbound flows in May were $0.6bn Outflows.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, stake changes, and holdings, and highlight flows for SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, China Mobile, Petrochina.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): End of Continuous Monthly Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 15th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&amp;C, Kuaishou, Petrochina, Zijin Mining, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Xiaomi, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 15th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&amp;C, Kuaishou, Petrochina, Zijin Mining, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Xiaomi, Ping An Insurance.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 15th): Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&C, Kuaishou, Petrochina

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.</li>
<li>ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.</li>
<li>DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the performance of Hong Kong Connect implementation in March 2026.
ADD stocks reversed their bridge window drawdown at implementation. The bounce faded by week 3 to 4.
DELETE stocks fell through first week, exceeding Sep 2025. Within the DELETE basket, the names where connect investors sold the most also fell the most.


HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange confirmed 40 ADDs and 25 DELETEs for Connect implementation on 9 March 2026.</li>
<li>The DELETE trade has worked well, with mean WAI return of -10.0% (21/25 negative); ADD stocks underperformed during WAI at -3.3% mean, consistent with the September 2025 event study.</li>
<li>Selectivity remains critical into implementation: favor narrative-aligned ADDs with moderate pre-event extension, maintain DELETE shorts on high-Connect-holding names, and monitor the three delayed ADDs for secondary entry points.</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange confirmed 40 ADDs and 25 DELETEs for Connect implementation on 9 March 2026.
The DELETE trade has worked well, with mean WAI return of -10.0% (21/25 negative); ADD stocks underperformed during WAI at -3.3% mean, consistent with the September 2025 event study.
Selectivity remains critical into implementation: favor narrative-aligned ADDs with moderate pre-event extension, maintain DELETE shorts on high-Connect-holding names, and monitor the three delayed ADDs for secondary entry points.


HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026): Implementation Today & Positioning

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Services is a conglomerate with a diversified portfolio of market-leading businesses, primarily in Hong Kong and mainland China. Its operations include toll roads, financial services, logistics, construction, and facilities management. The company was established in 2003 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

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Chow Tai Fook Services (659 HK)

We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)

Avoid NWD. Landlords need to materially reduce rents to kickstart the retail sector. That translates to more impairment losses. And further woes...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): End of Continuous Monthly Inflows

We estimate outflows to be $0.6bn from mainland investors to HK stocks in May. We highlight flows for SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, China Mobile,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 15th): Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&C, Kuaishou, Petrochina

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), Meituan (3690...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026) Post-Event Review: What Worked, What Didn't

HK Connect Mar 2026 implementation cycle is completing. ADD reversed the WAI drawdown at implementation. DELETE continuation worked post...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI / HK Connect (March 2026): Implementation Today & Positioning

HSCI rebal/HK Connect implementation on March 9th: We provide a follow-up note on what have done well and what to monitor.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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