Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

LightStream Research

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 1QFY09/2023 results. Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to JPY167.6bn (vs consensus JPY176.1bn) while OP turned negative JPY1.25bn (vs consensus OP of JPY4.1bn.</li>
<li>CA’s largest investment to-date was for FIFA 2022 but top line growth has largely been in line with previous quarter. WAU have dropped to pre-FIFA levels.</li>
<li>Though AbemaTV’s monetisation strategy seems to work, the growth prospects for other two segments are concerning and likely to drag down the consolidated performance.</li>
</ul>

Mark Chadwick

Japan Specialist

<ul>
<li>CyberAgent Q1 loss on one-off expenses from World Cup streaming. We see Q1 as a bottom this fiscal year</li>
<li>Share price already discounted weak FY9/23 guidance last October and focus is now on recovery </li>
<li>The World Cup was a success for the Japanese National side and for Abema</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 4QFY09/22 financial results after the market closed on 26th. Revenue for the quarter decreased 1.9% YoY to JPY 176.2bn vs consensus revenue of JPY 175.5bn.</li>
<li>OP declined 50.8% YoY to JPY 13.2bn vs consensus JPY 16.0bn (miss of 9%) due to decline in profits from gaming business. OPM declined to 7.5% from 14.9% in 4QFY09/21.</li>
<li>CA’s earnings have come under pressure with absence of new hit game titles. Media segment continues to see strong growth and FIFA World Cup is only a one-off boost.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>CyberAgent's stock price could fall after releasing very weak guidance for the coming fiscal year</li>
<li>We would buy into any weakness as we see CyberAgent well placed to benefit from the structural growth of the Digital Ad market</li>
<li>We expect losses in ABEMA TV to shrink further next year and think the whole Media segment can break-even, driven by betting platform, Winticket</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY09/22 financial results after the market closed on 27th. Revenue for the quarter decreased 10.4% YoY to JPY 172.2bn vs consensus revenue of JPY 173.2bn.</li>
<li>OP declined 76.7% YoY to JPY 10.4bn vs consensus JPY 16.0bn (miss of 35%) due to decline in profits from gaming. OPM declined to 6.0% from 23.2% in 3QFY09/21.</li>
<li>Though CA has proven in the past that it can turn around its business with just one hit title, it has not yet been able to launch another hit title</li>
</ul>

Japan

No authorization provided.

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc - 4751 JP

CyberAgent 1QFY09/2023: Earnings Miss, Struggling Gaming and Huge FIFA Cost Add to the Woes

Despite huge cost for FIFA, AbemaTV revenue growth was nothing extraordinary. Weekly Users have already dropped to pre-FIFA levels. Even if AbemaTV...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CyberAgent (4751) | World Cup Winners

We remain bullish on CyberAgent despite weak Q1 results. The World Cup has given a lasting boost to Abema TV. We expect earnings to trend higher...

Mark Chadwick

CyberAgent 4Q: Gaming Deteriorates Further with Absence of New Hit Titles

For awhile, CA says that it has 3 titles for 2022 release, so far there's none. Gaming biz continues to decline and FIFA is only a one-off boost to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CyberAgent (4751) | World Cup Boost for Abema

We expect losses in ABEMA TV to shrink further next year and think the World Cup could drive user acquisition. The whole Media segment can break...

Mark Chadwick

CyberAgent 3Q: Revenue and OP Miss Consensus as Game Titles Struggle

3Q revenue and OP missed consensus as the company's gaming biz has been struggling due to absence of new hit titles. CA has not yet been able to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

ADTV (USDm)

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