Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment </li>
<li>There is a sense of aggression in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> is well placed to grow volumes &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is expected to be a steady performer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)'</a> s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>'s products are more prone to volatility. </li>
</ul>


Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment 
There is a sense of aggression in ITC Ltd (ITC IN), Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) is well placed to grow volumes &amp; Nestle India (NEST IN) is expected to be a steady performer. 

Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)' s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)'s products are more prone to volatility. 


India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Headline performance: Dabur’s 4QFY22 consolidated revenue grew by 7.7% YoY to Rs25.2bn (our est. of Rs26.2bn). EBITDA grew by just 2.5% YoY to Rs4.5bn (our est. of Rs5.1bn).</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Segmental performance for 4QFY22: Healthcare (33.6% of Domestic FMCG in 4QFY22) grew by 7.4% YoY (2- year CAGR: 14.9%).</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 margin: Gross margin was down 130bps YoY at 47.4% (-90bps QoQ; vs our est. 47.5%)</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Headline performance: Dabur’s 4QFY22 consolidated revenue grew by 7.7% YoY to Rs25.2bn (our est. of Rs26.2bn). EBITDA grew by just 2.5% YoY to Rs4.5bn (our est. of Rs5.1bn).Segmental performance for 4QFY22: Healthcare (33.6% of Domestic FMCG in 4QFY22) grew by 7.4% YoY (2- year CAGR: 14.9%).4QFY22 margin: Gross margin was down 130bps YoY at 47.4% (-90bps QoQ; vs our est. 47.5%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur India - Misses Estimates; Near Term Remains Challenging

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><ul><li>Revenue miss, weak HPC: Net revenue grew by 8% YoY (+25% in Q4FY21 and +8% in Q3FY22), a miss on our expectation of 10.6% growth.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>A miss in margin; expect resilient margin in FY23: GM contracted by 130bps YoY (-35bps in Q4FY21 and -205bps in Q3FY22) to 47.4%.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>mployee/other expenses grew by 4/14% YoY (17/17% in Q4FY21). A&amp;P spends were down 3% YoY.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Revenue miss, weak HPC: Net revenue grew by 8% YoY (+25% in Q4FY21 and +8% in Q3FY22), a miss on our expectation of 10.6% growth.A miss in margin; expect resilient margin in FY23: GM contracted by 130bps YoY (-35bps in Q4FY21 and -205bps in Q3FY22) to 47.4%.mployee/other expenses grew by 4/14% YoY (17/17% in Q4FY21). A&amp;P spends were down 3% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur - Weak HPC Show; Expect Resilient Margin in FY23

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)</li><li>Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urban</li><li>Volume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessed</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urbanVolume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

<ul>
<li>This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March 2022).</li>
<li>The objective of the checks is to understand the underlying business narrative not to forecast the coming quarter and hence the limited sample sizes. </li>
<li>These checks are used as a tool to identify areas of discrepancy between management commentary and ground reality that could be the subject of future deeper dives. </li>
</ul>


This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March 2022).
The objective of the checks is to understand the underlying business narrative not to forecast the coming quarter and hence the limited sample sizes. 
These checks are used as a tool to identify areas of discrepancy between management commentary and ground reality that could be the subject of future deeper dives. 


India Channel Insight | Q4 Report Card | 59 Checks Across 5 Sectors

India

Dabur India Ltd. manufactures soaps, detergents, hair oils, tooth powders, antacids and processed foods. The Company sells its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)

India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

This channel insight shares key takeaways from speaking to channels across north India that are associated with ITC, Britannia, Nestle India,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Dabur India - Misses Estimates; Near Term Remains Challenging

The operating environment remained challenging with inflation of 16% in 4QFY22 and subdued consumer sentiments, especially in the hinterlands.

Nirmal Bang

Dabur - Weak HPC Show; Expect Resilient Margin in FY23

Dabur’s revenue and EBITDA margin were below our expectation. Revenue grew 8% YoY (HSIE 11%), with three-year CAGR at 6%.

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22...

HDFC Securities

India Channel Insight | Q4 Report Card | 59 Checks Across 5 Sectors

This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March...

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)