Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Yoon Suk-Yeol was elected the new President of South Korea on 10 March.</li>
<li>As the next President of South Korea, Yoon will certainly try to increase much needed housing supply and this will certainly benefit the major construction companies in Korea.</li>
<li>Another major sector that will likely benefit as a result of Yoon becoming the President is the nuclear industry.</li>
</ul>


Yoon Suk-Yeol was elected the new President of South Korea on 10 March.
As the next President of South Korea, Yoon will certainly try to increase much needed housing supply and this will certainly benefit the major construction companies in Korea.
Another major sector that will likely benefit as a result of Yoon becoming the President is the nuclear industry.


Yoon Suk-Yeol Becomes the New President of South Korea

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.</li>
</ul>


Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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In this insight, we discuss the best ways to position for the growth of REITs in South Korea. In the sections below, we have categorized four main ways in which we think investors would be best positioned to invest in the growing REIT market in Korea over the next 1-2 years, which include the following: 
I) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-kendall-square-reit-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32172:1" rel="noopener">ESR Kendall Square REIT (365550 KS)</a> 
II) Major Korean Construction Companies Entering REIT Market
III) Upcoming New Listings in the REIT Market
IV) Other Notable REITs in Korea
</div>


In this insight, we discuss the best ways to position for the growth of REITs in South Korea. In the sections below, we have categorized four main ways in which we think investors would be best positioned to invest in the growing REIT market in Korea over the next 1-2 years, which include the following: 
I) ESR Kendall Square REIT (365550 KS) 
II) Major Korean Construction Companies Entering REIT Market
III) Upcoming New Listings in the REIT Market
IV) Other Notable REITs in Korea


Best Ways to Position for the Growth of REITs in Korea

South Korea

Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd. is a general engineering constructor.  The Company's projects include architectural works, such as commercial buildings, public facilities, schools, hospitals, and civil works, such as highways, ports, tunnels, railways, and dams.  Daewoo Engineering & Construction also constructs power plants, and residential buildings.

Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS)

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Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS)

Yoon Suk-Yeol Becomes the New President of South Korea

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Douglas Kim

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

There could be 5 adds and 1 delete for the index in July. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. The index...

Brian Freitas

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

Best Ways to Position for the Growth of REITs in Korea

In this insight, we discuss the best ways to position for the growth of REITs in South Korea. ESR Kendall Square REIT is our top pick in this sector.

Douglas Kim

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