Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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In this insight, we discuss the best ways to position for the growth of REITs in South Korea. In the sections below, we have categorized four main ways in which we think investors would be best positioned to invest in the growing REIT market in Korea over the next 1-2 years, which include the following: 
I) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-kendall-square-reit-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32172:1" rel="noopener">ESR Kendall Square REIT (365550 KS)</a> 
II) Major Korean Construction Companies Entering REIT Market
III) Upcoming New Listings in the REIT Market
IV) Other Notable REITs in Korea
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In this insight, we discuss the best ways to position for the growth of REITs in South Korea. In the sections below, we have categorized four main ways in which we think investors would be best positioned to invest in the growing REIT market in Korea over the next 1-2 years, which include the following: 
I) ESR Kendall Square REIT (365550 KS) 
II) Major Korean Construction Companies Entering REIT Market
III) Upcoming New Listings in the REIT Market
IV) Other Notable REITs in Korea


Best Ways to Position for the Growth of REITs in Korea

Event-Driven

Daelim Industrial's BOD and shareholders agreed to spin-off the company into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dl-e-c-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31375:1" rel="noopener">DL E&amp;C Co Ltd (375500 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daelim-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18095:1" rel="noopener">DL Co Ltd (000210 KS)</a> in December 2020. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp shares started trading again on 25 January 2021. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp's market caps are 2.45 trillion won and 1.08 trillion won, respectively as of 26 January 2021. The combined market caps of the two companies are 3.53 trillion won, up more than 20% from the pre-spin off levels. DL E&amp;C makes some of the best apartments in Korea and this is their bread and butter business. <div>Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, HDC Hyundai Development, and Daewoo E&amp;C are the most appropriate comps to DL E&amp;C. These four comps are currently trading at P/E (2021E) ratios 11.8x, 6.1x, 5.6x, and 6.9x, respectively, using the consensus earnings estimates. The average P/E ratio of these four companies is 7.6x. If we apply 7.6x P/E on the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest an implied market cap of 5.0 trillion won, which would be nearly 100% upside from the current market cap of 2.4 trillion won. If we use the lowest P/E multiple of the comps (5.6x) and apply to the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest a market cap of 3.7 trillion won, which would be 51% higher than its current market cap. </div>

Daelim Industrial's BOD and shareholders agreed to spin-off the company into DL E&amp;C Co Ltd (375500 KS) and DL Co Ltd (000210 KS) in December 2020. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp shares started trading again on 25 January 2021. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp's market caps are 2.45 trillion won and 1.08 trillion won, respectively as of 26 January 2021. The combined market caps of the two companies are 3.53 trillion won, up more than 20% from the pre-spin off levels. DL E&amp;C makes some of the best apartments in Korea and this is their bread and butter business. Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, HDC Hyundai Development, and Daewoo E&amp;C are the most appropriate comps to DL E&amp;C. These four comps are currently trading at P/E (2021E) ratios 11.8x, 6.1x, 5.6x, and 6.9x, respectively, using the consensus earnings estimates. The average P/E ratio of these four companies is 7.6x. If we apply 7.6x P/E on the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest an implied market cap of 5.0 trillion won, which would be nearly 100% upside from the current market cap of 2.4 trillion won. If we use the lowest P/E multiple of the comps (5.6x) and apply to the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest a market cap of 3.7 trillion won, which would be 51% higher than its current market cap. 

Newly Spun-Off DL E&C and DL Corp Create Higher Value

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

Q3 delivered marked underperformanceOur Q3-2020 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price increase of 0.3%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted an increase of 6.3% over the same period. 15 stocks appear in our Q4 2020 screen, versus 21 in Q3 2020. As we highlighted in the previous three quarters, we are specifically on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics during 2020. This screen presents names which are worthy of investigation as they present with fundamentals which are at risk.

Q3 delivered marked underperformanceOur Q3-2020 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price increase of 0.3%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted an increase of 6.3% over the same period. 15 stocks appear in our Q4 2020 screen, versus 21 in Q3 2020. As we highlighted in the previous three quarters, we are specifically on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics during 2020. This screen presents names which are worthy of investigation as they present with fundamentals which are at risk.

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Time to remove the upper market cap limit as risk increases.<ul>
<li>
Our screen from this quarter onwards is for all stocks<a href="applewebdata://17FB2464-550F-48C5-BBBA-E248B1412D29#_ftn1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">[1]</a> above a market capitalisation of US$500m as we now encounter possibly one of the riskier periods in our market history. With this in mind, we have removed our Small-Mid Cap focus (US$500m-US$10bn market capitalisation) from our screens. </li>
<li>
21 stocks appear in our Q3 2020 screen. The average stock rank in our list has maintained a ranking of 63.5 points compared to 68 in Q2 2020 placing the stocks lower in the second quartile of the market, suggesting deteriorating fundamentals and a strong possibility of lagging performance.</li>
<li>
As we highlighted in Q1, watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics over 2020: In Q3, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.44 times, versus 1.31 in Q2. Whilst marginally improved, since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and there is limited visibility of their bottoming, the potential for a lower Z score in Q4 2020 and H1 2021is increased.</li>
</ul>

Time to remove the upper market cap limit as risk increases.

Our screen from this quarter onwards is for all stocks[1] above a market capitalisation of US$500m as we now encounter possibly one of the riskier periods in our market history. With this in mind, we have removed our Small-Mid Cap focus (US$500m-US$10bn market capitalisation) from our screens. 

21 stocks appear in our Q3 2020 screen. The average stock rank in our list has maintained a ranking of 63.5 points compared to 68 in Q2 2020 placing the stocks lower in the second quartile of the market, suggesting deteriorating fundamentals and a strong possibility of lagging performance.

As we highlighted in Q1, watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics over 2020: In Q3, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.44 times, versus 1.31 in Q2. Whilst marginally improved, since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and there is limited visibility of their bottoming, the potential for a lower Z score in Q4 2020 and H1 2021is increased.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

South Korea

Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd. is a general engineering constructor.  The Company's projects include architectural works, such as commercial buildings, public facilities, schools, hospitals, and civil works, such as highways, ports, tunnels, railways, and dams.  Daewoo Engineering & Construction also constructs power plants, and residential buildings.

Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS)

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Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS)

Best Ways to Position for the Growth of REITs in Korea

In this insight, we discuss the best ways to position for the growth of REITs in South Korea. ESR Kendall Square REIT is our top pick in this sector.

Douglas Kim

Newly Spun-Off DL E&C and DL Corp Create Higher Value

The newly spun off DL E&C and DL Corp have created higher value for the shareholders in the past month.Their combined market caps are 3.5 trillion...

Douglas Kim

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. 25 stocks...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Our Q3 screen delivered 600bps of under performance. With volatility is set to increase as we head into H1 2020, which stocks are most at risk in...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Time to remove the upper market cap limit as risk increases. Our screen from this quarter onwards is for all stocks[1] above a market...

David Lepper

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