Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

<ul>
<li>There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace</li>
<li>LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.</li>
<li>Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.</li>
</ul>


There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace
LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.
Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.


HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> stays listed if/when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly - manipulated (?) - at nosebleed valuations. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dah-sing-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:589:1" rel="noopener">Dah Sing Financial (440 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos</li>
<li>Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly - manipulated (?) - at nosebleed valuations. 
Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

<ul>
<li>The benefits of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a> China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. </li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continue its Brazil market launch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.</li>
<li>Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jilin-jiutai-rural-comm-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23735:1" rel="noopener">Jilin Bank (6122 HK)</a>, as discussed in<a href="https://skr.ma/UL5z1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice</a>
</li>
<li>This follows a similar bailout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jinzhou-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21014:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK)</a> in early 2024, as detailed in <a href="https://skr.ma/N19a2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.</a>
</li>
<li>Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  </li>
</ul>


Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice

This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.

Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  


Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

Hong Kong

Dah Sing Banking Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides personal banking, commercial banking, and treasury services.  The Group's operations are primarily based in Hong Kong.

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Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK)

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

There are improvements in overall loan growth in HK, but property sector lending - most critical for bank collateral - continues to contract at...

Daniel Tabbush

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

The trade is simple - avoid GMO Internet (4784 JP). Or take down borrow, where possible, for the persistent few who are up to the challenge.

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

This is largely an objective insight. There can be no guarantee/certainty why one bank may need to hoist the white flag, while another does not....

David Blennerhassett

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