Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China</li>
<li>We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening</li>
<li>Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks</li>
</ul>


New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China
We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening
Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks


Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. </li>
<li>Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. </li>
<li>A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. </li>
</ul>


Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. 
Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. 
A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. 


<ul>
<li>There is a sharp and accelerating rise in deposits with Hong Kong's banks, likely from Mainland China in part</li>
<li>There is no offsetting lending volume, where loan growth remains still negative, not a positive combination for net interest income</li>
<li>The LDR for Hong Kong's banks is fast approaching the distressed levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)</li>
</ul>


There is a sharp and accelerating rise in deposits with Hong Kong's banks, likely from Mainland China in part
There is no offsetting lending volume, where loan growth remains still negative, not a positive combination for net interest income
The LDR for Hong Kong's banks is fast approaching the distressed levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)


HK Banks - Surging Deposits and Contracting Loans, Sees LDR Fall Toward GFC Levels

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-financial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9760:1" rel="noopener">Public Financial (626 HK)</a> announced a scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-bank-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:583:1" rel="noopener">Public Bank (PBK MK)</a> at HK$2.50 per share, a 61.3% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The offer is well below book value (P/B of 0.35x) and light compared to peer multiples. However, it is an attractive exit as it represents a 10-year high. </li>
<li>The vote is low-risk, as the high takeover premium will appeal to minorities given the near-term cash certainty compared to remaining a minority holder in an illiquid, 73%-controlled stock. </li>
</ul>



Public Financial (626 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from Public Bank (PBK MK) at HK$2.50 per share, a 61.3% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
The offer is well below book value (P/B of 0.35x) and light compared to peer multiples. However, it is an attractive exit as it represents a 10-year high. 
The vote is low-risk, as the high takeover premium will appeal to minorities given the near-term cash certainty compared to remaining a minority holder in an illiquid, 73%-controlled stock. 


Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Public Bank’s Scheme Offer at HK$2.50

<ul>
<li>There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. </li>
<li>Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. </li>
</ul>


There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. 
Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. 
Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. 


BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

Hong Kong

Operates as an investment holding company, which provides banking, financial and other related services

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK)

Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

This is relevant to new insight on HK banks with worsening HFD for LDR and real estate lending growth now at most negative rates in the HKMA...

Daniel Tabbush

China: Revival 2.0?

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

HK Banks - Surging Deposits and Contracting Loans, Sees LDR Fall Toward GFC Levels

Hong Kong's banks are seeing surge in deposits, likely from Mainland China, but this is not accompanied by loan growth, where this is in...

Daniel Tabbush

Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Public Bank’s Scheme Offer at HK$2.50

The vote is low-risk, as the high takeover premium will appeal to minorities given the near-term cash certainty compared to remaining a minority...

Arun George

BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

BOC HK has seen credit costs flat line for some years, possibly making it appear as though this bank does not experience credit cycles. Long term...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

This is relevant to new insight on HK banks with worsening HFD for LDR and real estate lending growth now at most negative rates in the HKMA...

Daniel Tabbush

China: Revival 2.0?

​Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

HK Banks - Surging Deposits and Contracting Loans, Sees LDR Fall Toward GFC Levels

Hong Kong's banks are seeing surge in deposits, likely from Mainland China, but this is not accompanied by loan growth, where this is in...

Daniel Tabbush

Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Public Bank’s Scheme Offer at HK$2.50

The vote is low-risk, as the high takeover premium will appeal to minorities given the near-term cash certainty compared to remaining a minority...

Arun George

BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

BOC HK has seen credit costs flat line for some years, possibly making it appear as though this bank does not experience credit cycles. Long term...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.