Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak Result, As Expected:  AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] reported 1H20 net profit of USD 2.2 bn, which declined 43% over the same period one year ago primarily due to MTM losses.Operating profit after tax (OPAT) increased 5% YOY and was largely in-line with consensus  - albeit slightly lower than trend line due to lower sales and change in assumptions; and*VONB Appears To Have Turned: AIA’s Value of New Business (VONB) of USD 1.4 bn, declined 38% YOY and was significantly affected by the travel restrictions and social distancing measures. In fact, 2Q20 VONB was hit even harder  - declining 48%; however, AIA did note that VONB momentum did turn positive across a number of markets  - including mainland China.

*Weak Result, As Expected:  AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] reported 1H20 net profit of USD 2.2 bn, which declined 43% over the same period one year ago primarily due to MTM losses.Operating profit after tax (OPAT) increased 5% YOY and was largely in-line with consensus  - albeit slightly lower than trend line due to lower sales and change in assumptions; and*VONB Appears To Have Turned: AIA’s Value of New Business (VONB) of USD 1.4 bn, declined 38% YOY and was significantly affected by the travel restrictions and social distancing measures. In fact, 2Q20 VONB was hit even harder  - declining 48%; however, AIA did note that VONB momentum did turn positive across a number of markets  - including mainland China. 

*Creative New Revenue Opportunity: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA], via its 49%-owned Tata AIA JV in India, has entered into a strategic partnership with Practo Pte. Limited (Practo) – an Indian digital healthcare platform, in order to aid AIA’s expansion into the lucrative Indian market; and * Long-term Positive: As problems mount in AIA’s flagship Hong Kong business and the ramp up of the recently approved conversion of its Shanghai branch into a subsidiary, it’s good to see management continuing to look for ways to add to the franchise in this declining revenue environment. Like the conversion of the Shanghai branch, the Practo opportunity should be a longer-term positive for the shares.

*Creative New Revenue Opportunity: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA], via its 49%-owned Tata AIA JV in India, has entered into a strategic partnership with Practo Pte. Limited (Practo) – an Indian digital healthcare platform, in order to aid AIA’s expansion into the lucrative Indian market; and * Long-term Positive: As problems mount in AIA’s flagship Hong Kong business and the ramp up of the recently approved conversion of its Shanghai branch into a subsidiary, it’s good to see management continuing to look for ways to add to the franchise in this declining revenue environment. Like the conversion of the Shanghai branch, the Practo opportunity should be a longer-term positive for the shares. 

AIA Group – Interesting Indian Transaction

* Weak 1H20 Operational Results Expected: AIA (1299.HK) is set to report 1H20 interim results on August 20, 2020. As a follow-on to AIA’s very abbreviated and abysmal 1Q20 operating result that was impacted by regional COVID-19 restrictions and social distancing measures in Greater China and ASEAN new business sales, and expense overruns – accelerating the decline in the value of new business (VONB), should continue to be problematic for AIA;* Watch The Investment Portfolio: Yields drive the bottom-line at life insurers. Rates have been reduced to all-time lows in most markets globally, and investment returns at AIA’s bottom-line will continue to be challenged. In addition, ratings agency downgrades are expected to negatively impact AIA solvency margins.  With over USD 220 bn in corporate debt issues likely on the verge of downgrade by the venerable ratings agencies (which is greater than the actual USD 147 bn downgraded during the GFC) the market must be prepared for substantive hits to AIA’s investment portfolio; and * Weak Disclosure:We continue to encourage AIA to dislcose its assumptions for how it calculates in VONB margins.

* Weak 1H20 Operational Results Expected: AIA (1299.HK) is set to report 1H20 interim results on August 20, 2020. As a follow-on to AIA’s very abbreviated and abysmal 1Q20 operating result that was impacted by regional COVID-19 restrictions and social distancing measures in Greater China and ASEAN new business sales, and expense overruns – accelerating the decline in the value of new business (VONB), should continue to be problematic for AIA;* Watch The Investment Portfolio: Yields drive the bottom-line at life insurers. Rates have been reduced to all-time lows in most markets globally, and investment returns at AIA’s bottom-line will continue to be challenged. In addition, ratings agency downgrades are expected to negatively impact AIA solvency margins.  With over USD 220 bn in corporate debt issues likely on the verge of downgrade by the venerable ratings agencies (which is greater than the actual USD 147 bn downgraded during the GFC) the market must be prepared for substantive hits to AIA’s investment portfolio; and * Weak Disclosure:We continue to encourage AIA to dislcose its assumptions for how it calculates in VONB margins. 

AIA – Expecting An Even Weaker 2Q20 Result

*Weak Great Eastern Returns: Great Eastern (GE.SP) reported 1Q20 earnings of SGD 33.9 mn, declining 88% linked quarter from the SGD 287 mn posted in 4Q19. Earnings were materially weaker than what consensus had built in for Overseas Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) – and pose a 14% consensus miss for OCBC. Higher volatility in reported Great Eastern earnings decreases confidence in forecasts. This level of earnings decline at Great Eastern also limit the OCBC’s ability to take provisions; and* Terrible Readacross to Regional Insurers: MTM losses would imply a negative readacross to AIA (1299.HK), Prudential (PRU.LN), ManuLife (MFC.CN), and of course the mainland Chinese insurers (who are somehow exempt from negative MTM on very toxic securities portfolios).

*Weak Great Eastern Returns: Great Eastern (GE.SP) reported 1Q20 earnings of SGD 33.9 mn, declining 88% linked quarter from the SGD 287 mn posted in 4Q19. Earnings were materially weaker than what consensus had built in for Overseas Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) – and pose a 14% consensus miss for OCBC. Higher volatility in reported Great Eastern earnings decreases confidence in forecasts. This level of earnings decline at Great Eastern also limit the OCBC’s ability to take provisions; and* Terrible Readacross to Regional Insurers: MTM losses would imply a negative readacross to AIA (1299.HK), Prudential (PRU.LN), ManuLife (MFC.CN), and of course the mainland Chinese insurers (who are somehow exempt from negative MTM on very toxic securities portfolios).

OCBC – Nothing Great About Great Eastern

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/679/original/2020-05-01_05-31-11.png?1588278692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130679"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div>COMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  COUNTERMEASURES - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-<ul>
<li>The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.</li>
</ul><hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/680/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2039%2027.jpeg?1588280828" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130680"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/681/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2027%2003.jpeg?1588280873" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130681"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/683/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2040%2007.jpeg?1588281553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130683"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/682/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2031%2028.jpeg?1588280903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130682"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • ourworldindata.org</div>MAYDAY - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/684/original/2020-05-01_06-41-23.png?1588282906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130684"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>30TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> being the most prominent in the former camp.

Source • Japan AnalyticsCOMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as Nidec (6594 JP), the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  COUNTERMEASURES - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-
The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.
Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.
Source • ourworldindata.orgMAYDAY - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.Source • Japan Analytics30TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) being the most prominent in the former camp.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

Japan

The Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company Ltd. underwrites and sells life, health and annuity insurance to groups and individuals. The Company offers a wide variety of insurance products to suit different needs, ranging from children's school tuition to emergency funds for the elderly.

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Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)

AIA – Not Out Of The Woods

*Weak Result, As Expected: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] reported 1H20 net profit of USD 2.2 bn, which declined 43% over the same period one year ago...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group – Interesting Indian Transaction

*Creative New Revenue Opportunity: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA], via its 49%-owned Tata AIA JV in India, has entered into a strategic partnership with...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA – Expecting An Even Weaker 2Q20 Result

* Weak 1H20 Operational Results Expected: AIA (1299.HK) is set to report 1H20 interim results on August 20, 2020. As a follow-on to AIA’s very...

Thomas J. Monaco

OCBC – Nothing Great About Great Eastern

*Weak Great Eastern Returns: Great Eastern (GE.SP) reported 1Q20 earnings of SGD 33.9 mn, declining 88% linked quarter from the SGD 287 mn posted...

Thomas J. Monaco

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

COMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the...

Campbell Gunn

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