Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. </li>
<li>As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.</li>
<li>That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> are not far behind.</li>
</ul>


The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. 
As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

<ul>
<li>Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is IN. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> is OUT. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>? MIA. </li>
<li>In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. </li>
</ul>


Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. 

Shift Inc (3697 JP) is IN. Citizen Watch (7762 JP) is OUT. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)? MIA. 
In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses

Japan

The Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company Ltd. underwrites and sells life, health and annuity insurance to groups and individuals. The Company offers a wide variety of insurance products to suit different needs, ranging from children's school tuition to emergency funds for the elderly.

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Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

The Nikkei 225 Mar-26 rebalance is shaping up to be something different than one might have predicted just a month ago. High volume has trumped the...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

The Sep25 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is announced. That means the Mar26 review can be predicted with a fair bit of accuracy. I see one ADD one...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses

The Nikkei Index Committee chose to just change one name. Again disappointing. Kokusai misses out as Shift is added, Citizen Watch removed. ADV...

Travis Lundy

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