Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US stocks hit again on contagion fears as Fed takes control of Silicon Valley Bank; Lots of activity over the weekend to shore up confidence.  </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash. USDJPY strengthened to 135. With all activity in the US to shore up confidence,  Japan likely bottoms early; Ueda confiremed as BOJ Governor. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Dainippon Print(7912)  - Confluence of Target, Timing and Tactics. A spectacular win for Elliot, Activism in Japan and for Japan   </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US stocks hit again on contagion fears as Fed takes control of Silicon Valley Bank; Lots of activity over the weekend to shore up confidence.  
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash. USDJPY strengthened to 135. With all activity in the US to shore up confidence,  Japan likely bottoms early; Ueda confiremed as BOJ Governor. 
NUGGET. Dainippon Print(7912)  - Confluence of Target, Timing and Tactics. A spectacular win for Elliot, Activism in Japan and for Japan   


Good Morning Japan |Contagion Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Effective Activism - TARGET, TIMING, TACTICS

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Equity Risk-off ahead of NFP; Banks hit on default risk worries and Silvergate Collapse; Bitcoin hit hard (Silverate); Aggressive GM restructuring</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY Strengthens to 136.1 as pare risk ahead of Kuroda's final policy decision today;  MORE ACTIVIST WINS-Massive buyback from DNP;  Seven &amp; I Restructuring.</li>
<li>NUGGET. NISSAN, TAKING IT FROM ALL ANGLES. Nissan's bonds downgraded to junk this week; but its worse than you think..company faces serious headwinds.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Equity Risk-off ahead of NFP; Banks hit on default risk worries and Silvergate Collapse; Bitcoin hit hard (Silverate); Aggressive GM restructuring
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY Strengthens to 136.1 as pare risk ahead of Kuroda's final policy decision today;  MORE ACTIVIST WINS-Massive buyback from DNP;  Seven &amp; I Restructuring.
NUGGET. NISSAN, TAKING IT FROM ALL ANGLES. Nissan's bonds downgraded to junk this week; but its worse than you think..company faces serious headwinds.


Good Morning Japan |EQUITY SELL OFF Ahead of NFP-Banks Bear Brunt; NUGGET: Nissan - Its Worse !

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Stocks Mixed as SPX -0.1% as NYSE Glitches on Open;  MSFT Beats  but Chip Giant Texas Instruments weak; DoJ calls for Google Ad Break up</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at 130.19; Japan Freezes - No Joke; Nikkei Survey shows public sentiment toward Nuclear Power improving; Nidec misses; Elliot tgts DNP </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Is Japan Stuck ? This is the view of outgoing BBC reporter. We disagree - changes are happening. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Stocks Mixed as SPX -0.1% as NYSE Glitches on Open;  MSFT Beats  but Chip Giant Texas Instruments weak; DoJ calls for Google Ad Break up
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at 130.19; Japan Freezes - No Joke; Nikkei Survey shows public sentiment toward Nuclear Power improving; Nidec misses; Elliot tgts DNP 
DAILY NUGGET. Is Japan Stuck ? This is the view of outgoing BBC reporter. We disagree - changes are happening. 


Good Morning Japan |NYSE Glitches; Stocks Mixed; While JP Freezes the Public Warms to Nuclear Power

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/350/original/2020-05-28_06-43-04.png?1590615802" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136350"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>ALL GOOD</strong> - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11% below the December peak, despite a ten-year low in corporate earnings and the prospect of much worse in that regard in the coming months. Companies have retained staff, and consumer confidence has fallen less than in other developed economies. Production lines were not shut down, resulting in a GFC-like spike in the inventory ratio. The stable Yen will make it harder for exporters to the developing world to clear the stockpiles. Accordingly, the alphabetic 'shape' of Japan's post-COVID recovery will between "V" and "L" and will be more prolonged.</p><p><strong>SLIM TAILS</strong> - We are now in the slim tail of the earnings 'season' with only seven larger caps reporting yesterday of which just two made forecasts for the current year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/353/original/2020-05-28_07-10-35.png?1590617452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136353"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTERNAL DEFICIENCIES -</strong> Another 42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka (4578 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> (finally), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toray-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:625:1" rel="noopener">Toray (3402 JP)</a>.  Of the companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥1 trillion, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi (6501 JP)</a> remain after which this series of Insights will be brought to close. That these three companies required an extra month to prepare their accounts suggests severe deficiencies in the internal reporting structures of these companies.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsALL GOOD - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11% below the December peak, despite a ten-year low in corporate earnings and the prospect of much worse in that regard in the coming months. Companies have retained staff, and consumer confidence has fallen less than in other developed economies. Production lines were not shut down, resulting in a GFC-like spike in the inventory ratio. The stable Yen will make it harder for exporters to the developing world to clear the stockpiles. Accordingly, the alphabetic 'shape' of Japan's post-COVID recovery will between "V" and "L" and will be more prolonged.SLIM TAILS - We are now in the slim tail of the earnings 'season' with only seven larger caps reporting yesterday of which just two made forecasts for the current year.Source • Japan AnalyticsINTERNAL DEFICIENCIES - Another 42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be Otsuka (4578 JP), Nissan (7201 JP) (finally), and Toray (3402 JP).  Of the companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥1 trillion, only Olympus (7733 JP), Toshiba (6502 JP), and Hitachi (6501 JP) remain after which this series of Insights will be brought to close. That these three companies required an extra month to prepare their accounts suggests severe deficiencies in the internal reporting structures of these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th May - Recruit, DNP & Dentsu

Japan

DAI NIPPON PRINTING CO., LTD. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use.  The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium.  The Company provides design and production services as well.  Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks including Coca Cola.

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Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Good Morning Japan |Contagion Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Effective Activism - TARGET, TIMING, TACTICS

US stocks hit again on contagion fears as Fed takes control of Silicon Valley Bank; Lots of activity over the weekend to shore up confidence; Ueda...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |EQUITY SELL OFF Ahead of NFP-Banks Bear Brunt; NUGGET: Nissan - Its Worse !

NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY Strengthens to 136.1 as pare risk ahead of Kuroda's final policy decision today; MORE ACTIVIST WINS-Massive buyback...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |NYSE Glitches; Stocks Mixed; While JP Freezes the Public Warms to Nuclear Power

JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at 130.19; Japan Freezes - No Joke; Nikkei Survey shows public sentiment toward Nuclear Power...

Mark Chadwick

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th May - Recruit, DNP & Dentsu

ALL GOOD - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11%...

Campbell Gunn

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