Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +0.4%DoD +2.7%WoW; Semi run continues with SOX +0.4%DoD +6.2%WoW; Beta and Growth the big WoW winners;  Fed's Bostic leans to 25bp hike; Tesla cuts prices</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futs -1.3% vs Cash;  JGB 10Yr Yld hits 0.512% despite BOJ 10trn yen buying; USDJPY up to127.87;  DECARBONIZATION: Resonac (Showa Denko) expansion; Toray  expansion; METI CCS roadmap</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Slowing EV sales in China ? Maybe, but its still the largest EV market in the world. We see Nidec as the best way to play.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +0.4%DoD +2.7%WoW; Semi run continues with SOX +0.4%DoD +6.2%WoW; Beta and Growth the big WoW winners;  Fed's Bostic leans to 25bp hike; Tesla cuts prices
JAPAN:  NKY Futs -1.3% vs Cash;  JGB 10Yr Yld hits 0.512% despite BOJ 10trn yen buying; USDJPY up to127.87;  DECARBONIZATION: Resonac (Showa Denko) expansion; Toray  expansion; METI CCS roadmap
DAILY NUGGET: Slowing EV sales in China ? Maybe, but its still the largest EV market in the world. We see Nidec as the best way to play.


Good Morning Japan |Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px; BOJ in Focus

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Daifuku is a growth stock that has fallen by 26% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins</li>
<li>We believe that Daifuku is a major beneficiary of continued investment in automation, especially in e-commerce and logistics</li>
<li>We analyse Daifuku's core valuation drivers and see around 16% upside for the stock</li>
</ul>


Daifuku is a growth stock that has fallen by 26% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins
We believe that Daifuku is a major beneficiary of continued investment in automation, especially in e-commerce and logistics
We analyse Daifuku's core valuation drivers and see around 16% upside for the stock


Daifuku (6383) | Attractive Valuation Drivers Despite near Term Risks

<ul>
<li>After leading the market higher in 2021, growth stocks have significantly underperformed over the past 12 months. </li>
<li>Valuations may not yet have reached rock bottom levels and all these 3 stocks still trade at a premium to our universe of 14x PE</li>
<li>These 3 stocks all have strong long-terms structural drivers that make buying on the dip attractive for patient investors</li>
</ul>


After leading the market higher in 2021, growth stocks have significantly underperformed over the past 12 months. 
Valuations may not yet have reached rock bottom levels and all these 3 stocks still trade at a premium to our universe of 14x PE
These 3 stocks all have strong long-terms structural drivers that make buying on the dip attractive for patient investors


Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Daifuku’s 4QFY22 was strong with revenue of ¥143bn (+3.8% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥17.3bn (+8.2% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>Guidance was relatively strong at the top line, 1.1% above but margin assumptions were far too conservative resulting in a 4.1% miss vs. consensus. </li>
<li>One may think that creates upside potential but guidance for 2H to grow vs. 1H is optimistic and valuations are too stretched to withstand a deceleration in earnings momentum.</li>
</ul>


Daifuku’s 4QFY22 was strong with revenue of ¥143bn (+3.8% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥17.3bn (+8.2% vs. consensus). 
Guidance was relatively strong at the top line, 1.1% above but margin assumptions were far too conservative resulting in a 4.1% miss vs. consensus. 
One may think that creates upside potential but guidance for 2H to grow vs. 1H is optimistic and valuations are too stretched to withstand a deceleration in earnings momentum.


Japan

DAIFUKU CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and sells material handling equipment such as automated storage systems, conveyors, and automatic sorters.  The Company's products are used for automation in manufacturing and distribution businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Daifuku Co Ltd (6383 JP)

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Good Morning Japan |Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px; BOJ in Focus

Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px (positive Panasonic); BOJ in Focus. Expect the BOJ to lift JGB buying and do what...

Mark Chadwick

Daifuku (6383) | Attractive Valuation Drivers Despite near Term Risks

Daifuku's share price has declined by 26% YTD along with other growth stocks. We look at the key valuation drivers for the company and see upside...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip

No major movers to highlight over the past week as investors pay more attention to the World Cup. We highlight 3 growth stocks that have...

Mark Chadwick

Daifuku – Just Too Pricey

Daifuku offers slightly more stable earnings prospects than FA peers but valuations look to have more than priced that in leaving little margin for...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)