IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Geekplus Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-geekplus-technology-co-ltd-geek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35636:1" rel="noopener">Geekplus Technology (2590 HK)</a> is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.     </li>
<li>Geekplus has been the world’s largest warehouse fulfilment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue for the last six consecutive years.</li>
<li>The investment case is bearish due to declining growth, lower contract liabilities, hints of window dressing relating to reducing losses and ongoing cash burn.  </li>
</ul>



Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot (AMR) market. It is seeking to raise US$300 million.     
Geekplus has been the world’s largest warehouse fulfilment AMR solution provider in terms of revenue for the last six consecutive years.
The investment case is bearish due to declining growth, lower contract liabilities, hints of window dressing relating to reducing losses and ongoing cash burn.  


Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Okamura trades at a PBR of 1.0 and a PER of 8.6 despite earning more than 12% return on equity.</li>
<li>Okamura’s new AI-driven warehouse automation system is a potential game-changer as it reduces costs and improves decision making for mid-sized enterprises.</li>
<li>Management’s incentives are still poorly aligned with the interests of shareholders, and their performance is well below potential.</li>
</ul>


Okamura trades at a PBR of 1.0 and a PER of 8.6 despite earning more than 12% return on equity.
Okamura’s new AI-driven warehouse automation system is a potential game-changer as it reduces costs and improves decision making for mid-sized enterprises.
Management’s incentives are still poorly aligned with the interests of shareholders, and their performance is well below potential.


Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Reuters reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a>, the largest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.</li>
<li>As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.</li>
<li>Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. </li>
</ul>


Reuters reported that KKR &amp; Co (KKR US), the largest Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) shareholder, plans to sell about half of its 43% stake, worth around JPY300 billion.
As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price of JPY1,840, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. The 180-day IPO lock-up period expired on 22 April.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Daifuku released FY3/24 results on 10 May. Since then the share price has declined by 15%, giving investors an attractive entry point.</li>
<li>Daifuku is a key beneficiary of warehouse automation, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of over 6%, with industry spend projected to reach $37 billion by 2030</li>
<li>We expect the market to price in an order recovery in the core electronics segment and believe that the MTP is yet to be factored into the current share price.</li>
</ul>


Daifuku released FY3/24 results on 10 May. Since then the share price has declined by 15%, giving investors an attractive entry point.
Daifuku is a key beneficiary of warehouse automation, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of over 6%, with industry spend projected to reach $37 billion by 2030
We expect the market to price in an order recovery in the core electronics segment and believe that the MTP is yet to be factored into the current share price.


Daifuku (6383) | Time to Pick up Global Leader

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.</li>
<li>The likely seller will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; (KKR US)</a> as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.</li>
<li>Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. </li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.
The likely seller will be KKR &amp; (KKR US) as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Japan

DAIFUKU CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and sells material handling equipment such as automated storage systems, conveyors, and automatic sorters.  The Company's products are used for automation in manufacturing and distribution businesses.

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Daifuku Co Ltd (6383 JP)

Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case

Geekplus, a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot market, is seeking to raise US$300 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important

Okamura's undervalued stock and innovative AI warehouse system have potential, but management's incentives need to be juiced up.

Michael Allen

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. Expect a secondary offering announcement...

Arun George

Daifuku (6383) | Time to Pick up Global Leader

Daifuku's share price decline presents an attractive entry point for investors, with growth potential in warehouse automation and an expected...

Mark Chadwick

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Kokusai’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Geekplus Technology IPO (2590 HK): The Investment Case

Geekplus, a leader in the global autonomous mobile robot market, is seeking to raise US$300 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Okamura (7994): Why Management Incentives Are So Important

​Okamura's undervalued stock and innovative AI warehouse system have potential, but management's incentives need to be juiced up.

Michael Allen

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Rumoured KKR US$1.8 Billion Secondary Offering

As Kokusai’s shares are trading at 3.2x the IPO price, KKR would be tempted to reduce its stake further. Expect a secondary offering announcement...

Arun George

Daifuku (6383) | Time to Pick up Global Leader

​Daifuku's share price decline presents an attractive entry point for investors, with growth potential in warehouse automation and an expected...

Mark Chadwick

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Kokusai’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and...

Arun George

Okamura's undervalued stock and innovative AI warehouse system have potential, but management's incentives need to be juiced up.

Daifuku's share price decline presents an attractive entry point for investors, with growth potential in warehouse automation and an expected...