'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/367/original/2020-02-05_03-43-39.png?1580847984" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116367"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low, although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao (4452 JP)</a> although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the DETAIL below.<hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/368/original/2020-02-05_03-47-58.png?1580848469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116368"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a>'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the Other Commerical Products Sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> helped Healthcare tick up, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> fuelled the strong recovery in the Banks Sector.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/systena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20438:1" rel="noopener">Systena (2317 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a> added to the erosion of the Information Technology Sector's lead, although partially offset by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui (8031 JP)</a> 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the Wholesale Sector's Score.

Source • Japan Analytics4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low, although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Kao (4452 JP) although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the DETAIL below.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - Hoya (7741 JP)'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the Other Commerical Products Sector. Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) helped Healthcare tick up, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) fuelled the strong recovery in the Banks Sector.  Systena (2317 JP) and NTT Data (9613 JP) added to the erosion of the Information Technology Sector's lead, although partially offset by Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP).  Mitsui (8031 JP) 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the Wholesale Sector's Score.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/943/original/2020-02-01_07-00-20.png?1580599138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115943"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/944/original/2020-02-02_08-38-57.png?1580600364" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115944"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.<hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/946/original/2020-02-02_09-01-27.png?1580601710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115946"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

Source • Japan Analytics30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> presented positive 12-month eGFR data from a pre-specified interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial of Voyxact (sibeprenlimab-szsi) for the treatment of IgA nephropathy in adults.</li>
<li>In 2H26, the company plans to submit a regulatory application for full approval based on the eGFR data, as well as an application for auto-injector formulation.</li>
<li>New drugs like sibeprenlimab will help drive growth in the medium to long term. Top selling drugs are also steadily gaining traction. We recommend to Hold the stock for now.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) presented positive 12-month eGFR data from a pre-specified interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial of Voyxact (sibeprenlimab-szsi) for the treatment of IgA nephropathy in adults.
In 2H26, the company plans to submit a regulatory application for full approval based on the eGFR data, as well as an application for auto-injector formulation.
New drugs like sibeprenlimab will help drive growth in the medium to long term. Top selling drugs are also steadily gaining traction. We recommend to Hold the stock for now.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Voyxact Positive Trial Data Augur Well For the Future

Duality Biotherapeutics / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duality-biotherapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43878:1" rel="noopener">Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)</a> is accelerating its core product candidates toward commercialization. Although superior clinical profile enhances approval prospects, competition holds key for market adoption.</li>
<li>Duality has multiple upcoming catalysts in 2026 to drive long-term growth. These are mostly various trial readouts and regulatory submissions. No approval is expected this year.</li>
<li>The company ended 2025 with sufficient cash balance of RMB3.3B, thanks to HKEX listing and business development deals. Duality Bio has announced $40M (~RMB270M) share buyback.</li>
</ul>



Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK) is accelerating its core product candidates toward commercialization. Although superior clinical profile enhances approval prospects, competition holds key for market adoption.
Duality has multiple upcoming catalysts in 2026 to drive long-term growth. These are mostly various trial readouts and regulatory submissions. No approval is expected this year.
The company ended 2025 with sufficient cash balance of RMB3.3B, thanks to HKEX listing and business development deals. Duality Bio has announced $40M (~RMB270M) share buyback.


Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK): Core Product Pipeline Is Progressing; Share Buyback Announced

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Orix, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Orix, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Rakuten.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (May): Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Japan

Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JT)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more...

Campbell Gunn

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Voyxact Positive Trial Data Augur Well For the Future

Otsuka presents positive 12-month eGFR data for Voyxact in Phase 3 trial. Regulatory submission likely in 2H26. New drugs like this to drive...

Tina Banerjee

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (May): Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Orix,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more...

Campbell Gunn

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Voyxact Positive Trial Data Augur Well For the Future

​Otsuka presents positive 12-month eGFR data for Voyxact in Phase 3 trial. Regulatory submission likely in 2H26. New drugs like this to drive...

Tina Banerjee

Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK): Core Product Pipeline Is Progressing; Share Buyback Announced

​Duality Bio is advancing core products towards commercialization, but faces competition for market adoption. Amid multiple catalysts in 2026 for...

Tina Banerjee

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (May): Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Mitsubishi, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Orix,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Otsuka presents positive 12-month eGFR data for Voyxact in Phase 3 trial. Regulatory submission likely in 2H26. New drugs like this to drive...

Duality Bio is advancing core products towards commercialization, but faces competition for market adoption. Amid multiple catalysts in 2026 for...