Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q1FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> recorded 52% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of co-development and co-commercialization license for ADHD drugs.  </li>
<li>Shionogi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company expects FY24 revenue of ¥450B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥150B (up 1% YoY), and net profit of ¥155B (down 16% YoY).</li>
<li>Despite competition, Xocova captured a 60% market share of the treatment group patients in Japan. Over a six-month period since emergency approval, more than 70K patients have used Xocova.</li>
</ul>


In Q1FY24, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) recorded 52% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of co-development and co-commercialization license for ADHD drugs.  
Shionogi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company expects FY24 revenue of ¥450B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥150B (up 1% YoY), and net profit of ¥155B (down 16% YoY).
Despite competition, Xocova captured a 60% market share of the treatment group patients in Japan. Over a six-month period since emergency approval, more than 70K patients have used Xocova.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated

<ul>
<li>In FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.</li>
<li>For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.</li>
</ul>


In FY23, Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) recorded Enhertu product revenue growth of 218% YoY to ¥208B, 4% ahead of forecast, driven by indication expansion and strong market penetration in US.
For FY24, Enhertu product revenue is expected to increase 54% YoY to ¥320B, driven by higher utilization in HER2 positive and HER2 low breast cancer in US.
Daiichi Sankyo has two more drug candidates in late-stage trials for various cancers. Contribution of oncology to total revenue is expected to increase to 45% in FY26 from 20% now.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> recorded 17% growth in revenue to ¥1,519B in FY23, driven by 24% growth of Xtandi. Core operating profit grew 17% and core net profit increased 18%.</li>
<li>The company has guided for flat revenue and core operating profit for FY24, mainly due to negative impact of Fx.  </li>
<li>Astellas expects to obtain FDA approval for fezolinetant for vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause in May 2023. The company will file for marketing approval for zolbetuximab in Q1FY24.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) recorded 17% growth in revenue to ¥1,519B in FY23, driven by 24% growth of Xtandi. Core operating profit grew 17% and core net profit increased 18%.
The company has guided for flat revenue and core operating profit for FY24, mainly due to negative impact of Fx.  
Astellas expects to obtain FDA approval for fezolinetant for vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause in May 2023. The company will file for marketing approval for zolbetuximab in Q1FY24.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): FY23 Result and FY24 Guidance Meet Expectation; New Drugs Hold Key

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.08% and will result in a round-trip trade of JPY 412.8bn (US$3.16bn) at the close on 31 March.</li>
<li>There has been recent pre-positioning on the stocks as well as movement in short interest over the last couple of months.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661 JP), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Japan Airlines (9201 JP) will replace Toyobo (3101 JP), Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP), Toho Zinc (5707 JP) in the Nikkei 225.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.08% and will result in a round-trip trade of JPY 412.8bn (US$3.16bn) at the close on 31 March.
There has been recent pre-positioning on the stocks as well as movement in short interest over the last couple of months.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Japan

Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JT)

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated

In Q1, revenue surged 52% YoY to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of the license for ADHD drugs. Shionogi expects...

Tina Banerjee

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Beneficiary of Cancer Drug Enhertu; High Hope for Research Pipeline

Enhertu has gained blockbuster status by recording $1B+ revenue in FY23. Enhertu plus other potential cancer drug launches should contribute 45%...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): FY23 Result and FY24 Guidance Meet Expectation; New Drugs Hold Key

Astellas reported double-digit revenue growth in FY23, while FY24 revenue is expected to be flat due to unfavorable Fx. Flagship Xtandi still has...

Tina Banerjee

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday

Oriental Land, Renesas, JAL replace Toyobo, Nippon Light Metal, Toho Zinc. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.08% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

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