Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of Q1 results as we become less concerned about growth risks in China and the US</li>
<li>Peer results suggest that air conditioner demand is stronger than expected due to record high global temperatures</li>
<li>Company management has a good track record of pushing through price hikes and cutting costs. We expect the company to beat guidance this year</li>
</ul>


We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of Q1 results as we become less concerned about growth risks in China and the US
Peer results suggest that air conditioner demand is stronger than expected due to record high global temperatures
Company management has a good track record of pushing through price hikes and cutting costs. We expect the company to beat guidance this year


<ul>
<li>Daikin’s air conditioning business continues to benefit from the secular trends of urbanization, climate change, and rising incomes.  </li>
<li>However, the same logic might not apply to heat pumps, which face far more “structural” issues, warranting a lower valuation.</li>
<li>Overall, we believe that Daikin deserves to trade at its historical multiple of 15x EV/EBIT and see 20% downside from here.</li>
</ul>


Daikin’s air conditioning business continues to benefit from the secular trends of urbanization, climate change, and rising incomes.  
However, the same logic might not apply to heat pumps, which face far more “structural” issues, warranting a lower valuation.
Overall, we believe that Daikin deserves to trade at its historical multiple of 15x EV/EBIT and see 20% downside from here.


Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Box Spreads have become an increasingly popular strategy utilized in the US markets, so we explore this strategy in Japan.</li>
<li>Opportunities exist for traders to lock in JPY margin rates lower than their brokerage.</li>
<li>A historical analysis of the strategy showcases the favorable opportunities for investors</li>
</ul>


Box Spreads have become an increasingly popular strategy utilized in the US markets, so we explore this strategy in Japan.
Opportunities exist for traders to lock in JPY margin rates lower than their brokerage.
A historical analysis of the strategy showcases the favorable opportunities for investors


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. </li>
<li>Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.</li>
<li>If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.</li>
</ul>


This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. 
Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.
If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Japan

DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures air conditioning equipment for household and commercial use.  The Company also produces fluorine chemical products such as fluorinated hydrocarbon gas and shells and warheads for defense industry.

Daikin Industries (6367 JP)

Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool and Carry On

We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of 1Q earnings. The risk to top line growth in the US and China is receding. We now expect the company to beat full...

Mark Chadwick

Daikin (6367) | Cooling on Heat Pumps

We are not convinced that heat pumps will command a valuation multiple in line with the more secular air conditioning market. We see 20% downside...

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Are Box Spreads Viable in Japan?

Box spreads may be an effective strategy for Japanese investors to lock in margin rates lower than their prime brokerage with minimal risk and...

Nicholas Pezolano

Nikkei 225 Vs TOPIX Dynamics

Last week, Japan's indices hit new 33yr highs. "Japan is back" seems to be a new narrative, and that is creating new inflows. Some of that has...

Travis Lundy

Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.

Sumeet Singh