Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of Q1 results as we become less concerned about growth risks in China and the US</li>
<li>Peer results suggest that air conditioner demand is stronger than expected due to record high global temperatures</li>
<li>Company management has a good track record of pushing through price hikes and cutting costs. We expect the company to beat guidance this year</li>
</ul>


We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of Q1 results as we become less concerned about growth risks in China and the US
Peer results suggest that air conditioner demand is stronger than expected due to record high global temperatures
Company management has a good track record of pushing through price hikes and cutting costs. We expect the company to beat guidance this year


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has released an <a href="https://www.global.toshiba/content/dam/toshiba/ww/ir/corporate/news/20220719_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  </li>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japan-Industrial-Partners-Bain-advance-in-bidding-for-Toshiba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.</li>
<li>Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). </li>
</ul>


Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 


Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India / Equity Bottom-Up

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India

<ul>
<li>Our checks suggest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-home-life-solutions-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6172:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Home &amp; Life Solutions India Ltd (JCHAC IN)</a> has lost market share this season. </li>
<li>Market share loss has come on the back of poor product quality due to focus on costs and competition, which is irreparable in spite of the strong dealer network. </li>
<li>Poor capital allocation, high receivables and low-profit margins, all warrant attention. </li>
</ul>


Our checks suggest Hitachi Home &amp; Life Solutions India Ltd (JCHAC IN) has lost market share this season. 
Market share loss has come on the back of poor product quality due to focus on costs and competition, which is irreparable in spite of the strong dealer network. 
Poor capital allocation, high receivables and low-profit margins, all warrant attention. 


Johnson Controls-Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Irreparable Loss in Market Share

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The third tranche of the FFW methodology change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June.</li>
<li>One-Way flow is ~JPY 742bn and will be spread across 2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> and the largest outflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest impact of inflows have outperformed stocks with the largest impact of outflows, but there has been underperformance over the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


The third tranche of the FFW methodology change for the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June.
One-Way flow is ~JPY 742bn and will be spread across 2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on NTT (9432 JP) and the largest outflow on Toyota Motor (7203 JP).
Stocks with the largest impact of inflows have outperformed stocks with the largest impact of outflows, but there has been underperformance over the last couple of weeks.


TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close on 29 June

<ul>
<li>The overall Air Condition (AC) season has been good, with volumes up by more than +20% compared to the last two years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daikin-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16696:1" rel="noopener">Daikin Industries (6367 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> have performed below expectations with stiff pricing and poor dealer support. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> (Lloyd) market share gain is on the back of lower prices. The focus has moved from premiumizing brand &amp; expanding margins to gaining market share. </li>
</ul>


The overall Air Condition (AC) season has been good, with volumes up by more than +20% compared to the last two years.

Daikin Industries (6367 JP) &amp; Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) have performed below expectations with stiff pricing and poor dealer support. 

Havells India (HAVL IN) (Lloyd) market share gain is on the back of lower prices. The focus has moved from premiumizing brand &amp; expanding margins to gaining market share. 


India Channel Insight #36 | Daikin, Havells, Voltas

Japan

DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures air conditioning equipment for household and commercial use.  The Company also produces fluorine chemical products such as fluorinated hydrocarbon gas and shells and warheads for defense industry.

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Daikin Industries (6367 JP)

Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool and Carry On

We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of 1Q earnings. The risk to top line growth in the US and China is receding. We now expect the company to beat full...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Toshiba (6502) is -8% vs Peer Basket after the late June pop on a "¥7,000 deal." Semi/memory peers weaker while industrials better. That lifts IRR...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close on 29 June

The third and final tranche of the FFW methodology change for the TOPIX Index will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June. One way flow...

Brian Freitas

India Channel Insight #36 | Daikin, Havells, Voltas

We interacted with channels in North, West, and Mid-India to understand the demand environment & competitive dynamics in the current season for Air...

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Daikin (6367) | Keep Cool and Carry On

We turn bullish on Daikin ahead of 1Q earnings. The risk to top line growth in the US and China is receding. We now expect the company to beat full...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Toshiba (6502) is -8% vs Peer Basket after the late June pop on a "¥7,000 deal." Semi/memory peers weaker while industrials better. That lifts IRR...

Travis Lundy

Johnson Controls-Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Irreparable Loss in Market Share

Our channel checks across dealers indicate an irreparable loss in market share for Hitachi in the Indian Air Conditioner (AC) market.

Pranav Bhavsar

TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close on 29 June

The third and final tranche of the FFW methodology change for the TOPIX Index will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June. One way flow...

Brian Freitas

India Channel Insight #36 | Daikin, Havells, Voltas

We interacted with channels in North, West, and Mid-India to understand the demand environment & competitive dynamics in the current season for Air...

Pranav Bhavsar