Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Macroeconomics

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates.

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates. 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>The Recent Mitsubishi Motors News</h2>Last week on April 20th, the Nikkei ran an article with 45mins left in the trading day noting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/794" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794">Mitsubishi Motors Corp</a> (MMC) ran the wrong fuel economy tests on minicars it sold from 2013 onward, and the article made it sound like there was deliberate falsification of test data. The stock plummeted 15% in a hurry.  Market observers were reminded of an effort by Mitsubishi Motors in the early Noughties to hide defects which had possibly played a part in a few…

The Recent Mitsubishi Motors NewsLast week on April 20th, the Nikkei ran an article with 45mins left in the trading day noting that Mitsubishi Motors Corp (MMC) ran the wrong fuel economy tests on minicars it sold from 2013 onward, and the article made it sound like there was deliberate falsification of test data. The stock plummeted 15% in a hurry.  Market observers were reminded of an effort by Mitsubishi Motors in the early Noughties to hide defects which had possibly played a part in a few…

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.</li><li>But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.</li><li>The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.</li><li>Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.</li><li>TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.</li></ul>

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where we moderated a panel on asset allocation. Ignore them.  Our analysis suggests a low near term probability of sustained inflationary concerns in core markets. However, if you disagree, steer clear of linkers and commodity futures as your inflation hedge. You'll likely lose money. We recommend equities for this role, which are currently pricing in cyclical inflation lows.  In EM, we see the trend moving in the opposite direction, as inflationary pressures top out on the back of recovery in real exchange rates.  Longer term, the outlook for inflation in core economies will move up as policy makers are forced to ease more aggressively to drive it into a 2-4% range.  Not necessarily a bad thing for risk assets.

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where we moderated a panel on asset allocation. Ignore them.  Our analysis suggests a low near term probability of sustained inflationary concerns in core markets. However, if you disagree, steer clear of linkers and commodity futures as your inflation hedge. You'll likely lose money. We recommend equities for this role, which are currently pricing in cyclical inflation lows.  In EM, we see the trend moving in the opposite direction, as inflationary pressures top out on the back of recovery in real exchange rates.  Longer term, the outlook for inflation in core economies will move up as policy makers are forced to ease more aggressively to drive it into a 2-4% range.  Not necessarily a bad thing for risk assets.

Event-Driven

Of recent there have been a few tidbits of news, but still no document. A short recap follows.In recent days we have had... an update on pre-conditions, an update on irrevocable acceptances of the Offer by more parties related to the existing owning family and management, which will reduce the fill ratio for minority shareholders, slightly weaker EPS forecasts on average, and a slightly stronger market than earlier this year.A week ago, Baoxin came out with an update on the pre-conditions noting…

Of recent there have been a few tidbits of news, but still no document. A short recap follows.In recent days we have had... an update on pre-conditions, an update on irrevocable acceptances of the Offer by more parties related to the existing owning family and management, which will reduce the fill ratio for minority shareholders, slightly weaker EPS forecasts on average, and a slightly stronger market than earlier this year.A week ago, Baoxin came out with an update on the pre-conditions noting…

Baoxin: CGAS Offer Update, Fair Value, And Arb Grids

Germany

Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automobile company. The Company designs, manufactures, distributes, and sells a wide range of automotive products such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses. Mercedes-Benz Group also provides financial and other services relating to its automotive businesses.

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Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)

Market Commentary (June 2016)

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

More Mitsubishi Motors Muppetry

The Recent Mitsubishi Motors NewsLast week on April 20th, the Nikkei ran an article with 45mins left in the trading day noting that Mitsubishi...

Travis Lundy

Internet TV as an Investment Theme

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to...

CM Research

Inflation - Really?

We're awash in concerns over inflation - the Economist last week, and multiple speakers at the 2nd Independent Research Conference where...

ClearMacro

Baoxin: CGAS Offer Update, Fair Value, And Arb Grids

Of recent there have been a few tidbits of news, but still no document. A short recap follows.In recent days we have had... an update on...

Travis Lundy

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