Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Starwood Capital Group, a well-known real estate investor operating in half a dozen countries around the world, with current global AUM in excess of US$75bn. They manage private REITs globally and also manage the largest commercial real estate investment trust in the United States - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starwood-property-trust-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9223:1" rel="noopener">Starwood Property Trust (STWD US)</a> 
Together with affiliated investors, on Friday Starwood Capital Group filed that it owned just over 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP)</a> (filing attached below) and announced its intention to conduct a Tender Offer to buy out minorities. 
Invesco Office J-REIT, for its part, this morning <a href="http://www.invesco-reit.co.jp/file/en-news-060e1e4140efcec71c52617190ca80605a5d1749.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that this was made "unilaterally and with no prior notification." This classifies the action as hostile.
The Tender Offer Price is to be set at JPY 20,000/unit, which is s 13.3% premium to Friday's close, and a premium of 14.68% and 23.71% to the 1mo and 3mo closing price averages. 
This appears to have been put together somewhat hastily as the starwood website outlining the Tender Offer - <a href="https://www.starwoodjapantob.jp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.starwoodjapantob.jp/</a> - says the website is still being prepped.
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This deal comes in well over book and at something like 19x TTM FFO. 
The market's immediate reaction this morning is to bid the REIT through terms. 
Start Date? Unknown.  Minimum Threshold? Unknown. 
J-REIT takeovers are rare enough that hostile action is also rare, though not unknown. This will, however, be the first TOB of a Japanese REIT where the goal is to delist the REIT.
Hostile action on J-REITs comes with its own issues and parameters. And it is not as hard as it might be for a corporation. Starwood is counting on it. And that limits the Asset Manager's ability to defend itself.

Starwood Capital Group, a well-known real estate investor operating in half a dozen countries around the world, with current global AUM in excess of US$75bn. They manage private REITs globally and also manage the largest commercial real estate investment trust in the United States - Starwood Property Trust (STWD US) 
Together with affiliated investors, on Friday Starwood Capital Group filed that it owned just over 5% of Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) (filing attached below) and announced its intention to conduct a Tender Offer to buy out minorities. 
Invesco Office J-REIT, for its part, this morning announced that this was made "unilaterally and with no prior notification." This classifies the action as hostile.
The Tender Offer Price is to be set at JPY 20,000/unit, which is s 13.3% premium to Friday's close, and a premium of 14.68% and 23.71% to the 1mo and 3mo closing price averages. 
This appears to have been put together somewhat hastily as the starwood website outlining the Tender Offer - https://www.starwoodjapantob.jp/ - says the website is still being prepped.



This deal comes in well over book and at something like 19x TTM FFO. 
The market's immediate reaction this morning is to bid the REIT through terms. 
Start Date? Unknown.  Minimum Threshold? Unknown. 
J-REIT takeovers are rare enough that hostile action is also rare, though not unknown. This will, however, be the first TOB of a Japanese REIT where the goal is to delist the REIT.
Hostile action on J-REITs comes with its own issues and parameters. And it is not as hard as it might be for a corporation. Starwood is counting on it. And that limits the Asset Manager's ability to defend itself. 

Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Japan's largest Office REIT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) <a href="https://www.nbf-m.com/nbf_e/release/files/20201009_Notice%20Concerning%20Issue%20of%20New%20Investment%20Units%20and%20Secondry%20Offering%20on%20Investments%20Units.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow-on equity offering</a> on 9th October 2020 and I provided a brief introduction to the background of the REIT and its offerings history in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-building-fund-8951-jp-reit-offering-take-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44090" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It</a>. As mentioned in that insight, the pricing date was expected to be between 20th and 22nd of October 2020 (pricing is normally on the first day in the pricing period).Today, after market close, NBF <a href="https://www.nbf-m.com/nbf_e/release/files/%E6%9D%A1%E4%BB%B6%E6%B1%BA%E5%AE%9A%E3%83%97%E3%83%AC%E3%82%B9_E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the Issue Price to be ¥527,240/unit.Below is a brief recap of the Deal details (including confirmation of key dates) and a closer look at the attractiveness of this pricing.

Japan's largest Office REIT Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) follow-on equity offering on 9th October 2020 and I provided a brief introduction to the background of the REIT and its offerings history in Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It. As mentioned in that insight, the pricing date was expected to be between 20th and 22nd of October 2020 (pricing is normally on the first day in the pricing period).Today, after market close, NBF announced the Issue Price to be ¥527,240/unit.Below is a brief recap of the Deal details (including confirmation of key dates) and a closer look at the attractiveness of this pricing. 

NBF (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Pricing Announced. Wide Discount to Undisturbed.

Japan's largest Office REIT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) <a href="https://www.nbf-m.com/nbf_e/release/files/20201009_Notice%20Concerning%20Issue%20of%20New%20Investment%20Units%20and%20Secondry%20Offering%20on%20Investments%20Units.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow-on equity offering</a> on 9th October 2020 to fund their recent acquisition of Shinjuku Mitsui Building and Gran Tokyo South Tower. 
This is the biggest REIT offering in Japan this year so far, is large historically, and is the first offering by NBF, the largest Office REIT by Market Cap since 2014.
NBF plans to offer 171,000 units in the Domestic Primary Offering and 58,000 units in the International Offering (mainly in the U.S., Europe and Asia). However, final allocation can be different depending on demand conditions. The over-allotment quantity will be 11,500 units. 
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<div class="content-caption">Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)</div>
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As always, there is more below the fold.

Japan's largest Office REIT Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) ("NBF") announced a ¥140bn (~US$1.3bn) follow-on equity offering on 9th October 2020 to fund their recent acquisition of Shinjuku Mitsui Building and Gran Tokyo South Tower. 
This is the biggest REIT offering in Japan this year so far, is large historically, and is the first offering by NBF, the largest Office REIT by Market Cap since 2014.
NBF plans to offer 171,000 units in the Domestic Primary Offering and 58,000 units in the International Offering (mainly in the U.S., Europe and Asia). However, final allocation can be different depending on demand conditions. The over-allotment quantity will be 11,500 units. 


Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)

As always, there is more below the fold. 

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global manufacturing and the U.S.-EU tariff escalation raises the potential for a breakdown in global equities, however our outlook remains neutral as long as the MSCI ACWI remains confined to its horizontal range. In today's report we highlight attractive and actionable set-ups within technology, construction and engineering, and real estate.

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global manufacturing and the U.S.-EU tariff escalation raises the potential for a breakdown in global equities, however our outlook remains neutral as long as the MSCI ACWI remains confined to its horizontal range. In today's report we highlight attractive and actionable set-ups within technology, construction and engineering, and real estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Prevailing Trends Persist

Japan

Daiwa Office Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which invests in securitized real estate products.

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Daiwa Office Investment (8976 JP)

Starwood Targets Japan's First Hostile REIT Full TOB for Invesco Office J-REIT

Starwood announced it intends to conduct Japan's first TOB Tender Offer designed to delist a J-REIT. J-REIT voting rules/rights are different, and...

Travis Lundy

NBF (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Pricing Announced. Wide Discount to Undisturbed.

The Nippon Building Fund (8951) REIT placement - the largest J-REIT placement this year - has priced. Based on historical patterns and value, it is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) REIT Offering: Take It

NBF's ¥140bn Offering is the largest J-REIT Offering in 2020. Historically, NBF Follow-On Offerings outperform TSEREIT and perform on an absolute...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Prevailing Trends Persist

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Continued weakness in global...

Vermilion Research

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