Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Delisting /In Depth: As China’s property crisis deepens, sinking shares spark delisting threat</li><li>Carbon /: Xi calls for adopting ‘dual control’ system for carbon emissions and intensity</li><li>Corruption /: Top Shanghai lawmaker under graft investigation</li></ul>

Delisting /In Depth: As China’s property crisis deepens, sinking shares spark delisting threatCarbon /: Xi calls for adopting ‘dual control’ system for carbon emissions and intensityCorruption /: Top Shanghai lawmaker under graft investigation

CX Daily: As China’s Property Crisis Deepens, Sinking Shares Spark Delisting Threat

<ul><li>Robots /In Depth: The march of Chinese robots into domestic factories</li><li>Dam /: China expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Ukraine dam collapse</li><li>Compensation /: Wrongfully convicted man seeks $2.9 million in state compensation</li></ul>

Robots /In Depth: The march of Chinese robots into domestic factoriesDam /: China expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Ukraine dam collapseCompensation /: Wrongfully convicted man seeks $2.9 million in state compensation

CX Daily: The March of Chinese Robots Into Domestic Factories

<ul><li>E-commerce /In Depth: Chinese fast fashion platforms could be next U.S. target</li><li>Sentiment /: British firms ‘conditionally optimistic’ about their China operations in 2023</li><li>AIDS /: HIV/AIDS cases in China fell 13% during pandemic, expert says</li></ul>

E-commerce /In Depth: Chinese fast fashion platforms could be next U.S. targetSentiment /: British firms ‘conditionally optimistic’ about their China operations in 2023AIDS /: HIV/AIDS cases in China fell 13% during pandemic, expert says

CX Daily: Chinese Fast Fashion Platforms Could Be Next U.S. Target

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

13 months after its introduction, China's "Three Red Lines" (TRL) policy initiative (to reduce leverage, improve debt coverage and increase liquidity) for property companies is beginning to have a serious impact. A key contributory factor is that TSF (total social financing) has increased by a more moderate RMB21.68 trillion in Jan-Aug 2021 than last year (RMB25.97 trillion in Jan-Aug 2020), which still implies 10.3% YoY growth in the stock of TSF (to RMB306.83 trillion, or US$47.5 trillion), which is near the slowest-ever pace since TSF began to be published. The stock of M2, bank credit and TSF in China are at historic highs never reached by any other country, and the growth of all these aggregates continues, albeit at a marginally slower pace.Despite the abundance of liquidity (and the cut in RRR in mid-July), real GDP is growing barely over 5% YoY in 3Q 2021, with retail sales decelerating to 2.5% YoY growth and industrial production to 5.3% YoY growth in August 2021. The latter was largely export-driven (helped by a surge in global trade), as FAI (fixed asset investment) declined 2.1% YoY in May-August 2021. Such an economic deceleration in the year before an important leadership transition (i.e., rubber-stamping of continuity for Xi, change for others around him) will be met by further monetary easing in October 2021. That half of the 10 largest residential-property developers are Guangdong-based (a province traditionally known for both entrepreneurship and rebellion) makes them particularly vulnerable to the political crackdown on capitalists. The focus increasingly will be on cutting the costs of property, healthcare and education, not just tech titans.  However, moral hazard will be tightly managed. Onshore (local currency) bond holders will bear relatively few losses on high-profile names like Evergrande (although there will be credit events for bank loans), while offshore foreign-currency bond holders are likely to feel considerable pain (i.e., the partial end of the "moral hazard play"). The political crackdown on sundry capitalists -- tech titans, others seeking overseas listings, property developers, gaming companies -- will persist, adding more to the China Premium. We would recommend staying Underweight China equities amid the uncertainty generated by this political instability, which will result in a new equilibrium discount on Chinese valuations emerging by early 2022.

13 months after its introduction, China's "Three Red Lines" (TRL) policy initiative (to reduce leverage, improve debt coverage and increase liquidity) for property companies is beginning to have a serious impact. A key contributory factor is that TSF (total social financing) has increased by a more moderate RMB21.68 trillion in Jan-Aug 2021 than last year (RMB25.97 trillion in Jan-Aug 2020), which still implies 10.3% YoY growth in the stock of TSF (to RMB306.83 trillion, or US$47.5 trillion), which is near the slowest-ever pace since TSF began to be published. The stock of M2, bank credit and TSF in China are at historic highs never reached by any other country, and the growth of all these aggregates continues, albeit at a marginally slower pace.Despite the abundance of liquidity (and the cut in RRR in mid-July), real GDP is growing barely over 5% YoY in 3Q 2021, with retail sales decelerating to 2.5% YoY growth and industrial production to 5.3% YoY growth in August 2021. The latter was largely export-driven (helped by a surge in global trade), as FAI (fixed asset investment) declined 2.1% YoY in May-August 2021. Such an economic deceleration in the year before an important leadership transition (i.e., rubber-stamping of continuity for Xi, change for others around him) will be met by further monetary easing in October 2021. That half of the 10 largest residential-property developers are Guangdong-based (a province traditionally known for both entrepreneurship and rebellion) makes them particularly vulnerable to the political crackdown on capitalists. The focus increasingly will be on cutting the costs of property, healthcare and education, not just tech titans.  However, moral hazard will be tightly managed. Onshore (local currency) bond holders will bear relatively few losses on high-profile names like Evergrande (although there will be credit events for bank loans), while offshore foreign-currency bond holders are likely to feel considerable pain (i.e., the partial end of the "moral hazard play"). The political crackdown on sundry capitalists -- tech titans, others seeking overseas listings, property developers, gaming companies -- will persist, adding more to the China Premium. We would recommend staying Underweight China equities amid the uncertainty generated by this political instability, which will result in a new equilibrium discount on Chinese valuations emerging by early 2022.  

China

Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial property developer, owner, and operator. The Company develops and manages mixed-use property projects including retail, office, hotel, residential, restaurant, entertainment, and other projects. Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group conducts businesses in China.

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

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Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 14-20 July 2023

A weekly curated set of summaries of select local Chinese news articles, posts, and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: As China’s Property Crisis Deepens, Sinking Shares Spark Delisting Threat

Delisting /In Depth: As China’s property crisis deepens, sinking shares spark delisting threat Carbon /: Xi calls for adopting ‘dual control’...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: The March of Chinese Robots Into Domestic Factories

Robots /In Depth: The march of Chinese robots into domestic factories Dam /: China expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Ukraine dam...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Chinese Fast Fashion Platforms Could Be Next U.S. Target

E-commerce /In Depth: Chinese fast fashion platforms could be next U.S. target Sentiment /: British firms ‘conditionally optimistic’ about their...

Caixin Global

China: The End of the Moral Hazard Play?

Moral hazard will be managed, not ended. Offshore bonds, local loans will bear pain. Property, health, education costs must fall. We recommend...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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