Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management / Equity Capital Markets

Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.




This week we got a good mix of ECM deals across Asia. Starting with the usual, Hong Kong saw Excellence Commercial Property (1611267D CH) launch its bookbuild which we covered in:


Excellence Commercial Property (卓越商企服务) IPO - Updated Financials, Peer Comparison, and Valuation 

For upcoming IPOs, there were news of Shimao Services Holdings (SSH HK) and KWG Living Group (KLG HK) seeking listing approval from Hong Kong Exchange and likely to premarket soon. Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SIMCERE HK) has already gotten approval and its PHIP has been filed already. Bookbuild of these IPOs will likely launch soon and we covered them in:


Shimao Services (世茂服务) Pre-IPO - Community VAS Segment Is the Star 

KWG Living (合景悠活) Pre-IPO - Strong Growth and Margin Expansion but Overly Reliant on KWG Group 
Simcere (先声制药) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates and Peer Comparison

HK biotech IPOs are still looking strong. JHBP (Genor) (6998 HK) and Everest Medicines (1952 HK) listings this week did well which should continue bode well for sentiment for subsequent deals to come. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM continued his coverage of upcoming biotech IPOs:


SciClone Pharma (赛生药业) Pre-IPO: Rejuvenation of Old Drugs 

JW Therapeutics (药明巨诺) Pre-IPO: CAR-T Leader in China 

In the U.S,  MINISO (名创优品) IPO - Reasonable Towards the Low-End launched its bookbuild just about two weeks after its F-1 filing. Our valuation and earlier coverage is as follows:


MINISO (名创优品) IPO - Reasonable Towards the Low-End 

MINISO (名创优品) Pre-IPO - Store Walkthrough - Co-Branding Allows for Stronger Pricing 

MINISO (名创优品) Pre-IPO - Asset-Light and Fairly Resilient Despite COVID 

In other parts of Asia, starting with the Philippines, Converge ICT Solutions Inc (ITC PM) launched its bookbuild and was said to price towards the low-end of the price range. In Malaysia, MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK), on the other hand, counted a long list of institutional investors as cornerstone, leaving little for others.


Converge ICT IPO - More Customers, Lower ARPU 

MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation 

There hasn't been a whole lot of placement activities in Hong Kong but Japan saw Danone SA (DANOY US) selling down its remaining stake in Yakult Honsha (2267 JP).


Yakult Honsha Placement - Danone Heads for a Clean-Up 

IPOs debuting this coming week:


Weihai City Commercial Bank IPO Trading - Lacks Demand but Tightly Allocated 

UTI Asset Management IPO Trading - Tepid Response, as Expected 






Accuracy Rate:



Our overall accuracy rate is 73.3% for IPOs and 66.5% for Placements 


(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)






New IPO filings this week  





Dida Inc (US$500m, Hong Kong)
Lufax (US$2bn, the U.S.)



Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.






News on Upcoming IPOs  





Singapore’s GIC Plans to Invest More Than $1 Billion in Ant
Chinese video site Bilibili prepares Hong Kong IPO of up to $1.5bn
China's Dida Chuxing poised for Asia's first ride-sharing IPO
Chinese wealth management giant Lufax files for U.S. IPO




Analysis on Upcoming IPOs







Name
Insight


Hong Kong


Ant Group

Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO First-Take: No. 1 Fintech from All Angles 


Ant Group

Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO: Numbers Suggest It's More Tech than Financials 


Ant Group

Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Things to Clarify/Questions to Ask - Falling Fees, Margins, Cash Flow 


Ant Group
Ant Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth &amp; Risk Factors


Ant Group

Ant Financial (蚂蚁金服) IPO Early Thought: What's New About the Listing News 


Ant Group

Ant Group - Index Inclusion Possibilities &amp; Timeline 


Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon: No. 1 But No Exclusive Advantage, Observation on the Ground 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 



ByteDance

ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO - Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Global Ambition Meets Regulatory Challenges 



E-Star Comm

E-Star Commercial Management Pre-IPO - Better Disclosure in New Prospectus 



E-Star Comm

E-Star Commercial Management Pre-IPO - Still Largely Reliant on Galaxy, Poor Disclosure Doesn’t Help 



Genor

Genor (嘉和生物) Pre-IPO: Slow R&amp;D Progress in the past but that Might Change 



Jiayuan Svcs

Jiayuan Services (佳源服务) Pre-IPO - Another Small Property Management Company 



Jinke Svcs

Jinke Smart Services (金科智慧服务) Pre-IPO - GFA Growth at the Expense of Fees 



Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - Rapid Earnings Growth on the Back of Margin Improvement 



Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - A Lot of Things Still Remain Unexplained 



KWG Living

KWG Living (合景悠活) Pre-IPO - Strong Growth and Margin Expansion but Overly Reliant on KWG Group 



Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - Remarkable Growth (Part 1) 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - A Bet on the Future - Segments, Revenue Drivers and Growth Potential 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - The Real Race Is in Research - Founders' Profile and Talent 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - Competitive Landscape and Peer Analysis 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO -  Initial Thoughts on Valuation 


Ocumension

Ocumension (欧康维视) Pre-IPO: All Ready for a Great Listing Except a Block Buster 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is It a Brand Owner or Just a Retailer? 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Portfolio+Wider Distribution= Explosive Earnings Growth 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - Peer Set and Valuation 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO Quick Note - On the Ground - Pop-Up Stores Are Effective 


Radiance

Radiance Holdings (金辉控股) Pre-IPO - Property Mgt Svc Sold Out at a Ridiculously Cheap Valuation 


Shimao Svcs

Shimao Services (世茂服务) Pre-IPO - Community VAS Segment Is the Star 


Sunac Svcs

Sunac Services (融创服务) Pre-IPO - Promising Growth &amp; Diversifying Away from Sunac Via Acquisitions 


RemeGen

RemeGen (荣昌生物) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation of RC18 and RC48 


Simcere

Simcere (先声制药) Pre-IPO: Long History but Products Concentrated 


Toplist

Toplist China Pre-IPO - Overwhelmingly More Negatives than Positives 


Tasly

Tasly Biopharm (天士力生物) IPO: Visible Growth from Approved Drug but Lacks Blockbusters 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through - The Online Medical Directory and More 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO - A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 


India


ASK

ASK Investment Managers Pre-IPO - Riding on a Wave of Wealth 


Anmol Ind
Anmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take - No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders


Bharat Hotel

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO - Catching up with Peers 



Burger King

Burger King India Pre-IPO - Has Been Growing Fast and Plans to Grow Even Faster 



Burger King

Burger King India Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison Yields Interesting Nuggets on Profitability and Capex 



Bajaj En

Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO - Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 



CMS Info
CMS Info Systems Pre-IPO - When a PE Sells to Another PE... Only One Gets the Timing Right


Crystal Crop
Crystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO - DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers


ESAF SFB

ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 


Equitas SFB

Equitas Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Another Forced Small Finance Bank Listing 


Equitas SFB

Equitas Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Another Forced Small Finance Bank Listing 


Flemingo 
Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO - Its a Different Business in Every Country


Emami Cem

Emami Cement Pre-IPO - Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 


IRFC

Indian Railway Finance Pre-IPO - Low Risk, Low Margin Business 


NSE
NSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive


NSE
National Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review - Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some


Mrs. Bector
Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take - Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta



LIC


Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO - Early Take on India's Largest IPO 



Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable


Lodha
Lodha Developers IPO: Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt


Penna Cem

Penna Cement - Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 


PNB Met
PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take - Doesn't Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers


Samhi Hotels

Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO - Assets and Borrowings Are Growing, but Earnings Haven’t Kept Pace 


Malaysia


QSR
QSR Brands Pre-IPO - As Healthy as Fast Food


Thailand


PTTOR

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - F&amp;B Business Is the Profit Driver 


The U.S


CDP

CDP Holdings Pre-IPO Review - Highly Reliant on Best Inc. 


CloudMinds
CloudMinds Inc Early Thoughts - Still Nascent






ECM Weekly (11 October 2020) - Excellence Comm, MR DIY, Converge ICT, Simcere, SciClone, JW Thera

France

Danone operates as a food processing company. The Company produces and markets dairy products, beverages, baby food, and medical nutrition products. Danone serves customers worldwide.

Danone (DANOY US)

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

ECM Weekly (11 October 2020) - Excellence Comm, MR DIY, Converge ICT, Simcere, SciClone, JW Thera

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming...

Zhen Zhou, Toh