New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) will report its FY26 result on Monday, 17 August 2026.</li>
<li>ATM noted a ‘large proportion’ of its China-label customers were forced to switch brands due to inadequate supply in 4Q26.</li>
<li>We look for an update on ATM’s Pokeno facility, where we expect utilisation to ramp up significantly in FY27.</li>
</ul>


The a2 Milk Company (ATM) will report its FY26 result on Monday, 17 August 2026.
ATM noted a ‘large proportion’ of its China-label customers were forced to switch brands due to inadequate supply in 4Q26.
We look for an update on ATM’s Pokeno facility, where we expect utilisation to ramp up significantly in FY27.


The a2 Milk Company FY26 Preview—Supply Restored

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance.</li><li>As a result, product flows to distributors and retailers have materially improved, and stock levels for both English Label and China Label have returned to targeted levels.</li><li>With uncertainty still relatively elevated and ATM now trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~28x, broadly in line with history, we continue to see a balanced risk–reward profile.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance.As a result, product flows to distributors and retailers have materially improved, and stock levels for both English Label and China Label have returned to targeted levels.With uncertainty still relatively elevated and ATM now trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~28x, broadly in line with history, we continue to see a balanced risk–reward profile.

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has announced the voluntary recall of three batches of a2 Platinum infant formula sold into the United States (US) due to the detection of cereulide.</li><li>The direct financial impacts of the recall are immaterial.</li><li>It is difficult to assess what impact (if any) the recall will have for ATM's sales in China, but we see Danone's January recall as the most relevant precedent given the shared root cause (cereulide) and the absence of direct product withdrawals in China.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has announced the voluntary recall of three batches of a2 Platinum infant formula sold into the United States (US) due to the detection of cereulide.The direct financial impacts of the recall are immaterial.It is difficult to assess what impact (if any) the recall will have for ATM's sales in China, but we see Danone's January recall as the most relevant precedent given the shared root cause (cereulide) and the absence of direct product withdrawals in China.

The a2 Milk Company US Infant Formula Recall

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has announced the voluntary recall of three batches of a2 Platinum infant formula sold into the USA.</li><li>No confirmed incidents of illness or harm have been reported at this stage, but ATM is communicating with US consumers around recommended actions if they have purchased the product.</li><li>The direct financial impact of the recall is immaterial to ATM, with total US infant formula sales ~0.1% of revenue in 1H26.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has announced the voluntary recall of three batches of a2 Platinum infant formula sold into the USA.No confirmed incidents of illness or harm have been reported at this stage, but ATM is communicating with US consumers around recommended actions if they have purchased the product.The direct financial impact of the recall is immaterial to ATM, with total US infant formula sales ~0.1% of revenue in 1H26.

The a2 Milk Company (ATM): US Infant Formula Recall

<ul><li>Newsflow has continued to increase on the global infant formula recall, and we are receiving many questions from investors.</li><li>Our broad thoughts at this stage are: (1) we think The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is in the clear from any negative impacts, although we recognise why some investors are cautious; and (2) the possible China upside is hard to assess, given Danone’s China products source the problem ARA ingredient from another supplier and Nestlé’s China recall exposure is very limited.</li><li>This is clearly a sensitive situation, with newsflow (and our view) likely to evolve.</li></ul>

Newsflow has continued to increase on the global infant formula recall, and we are receiving many questions from investors.Our broad thoughts at this stage are: (1) we think The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is in the clear from any negative impacts, although we recognise why some investors are cautious; and (2) the possible China upside is hard to assess, given Danone’s China products source the problem ARA ingredient from another supplier and Nestlé’s China recall exposure is very limited.This is clearly a sensitive situation, with newsflow (and our view) likely to evolve.

The A2 Milk Company Infant Formula Recall What We Know So Far

France

Danone operates as a food processing company. The Company produces and markets dairy products, beverages, baby food, and medical nutrition products. Danone serves customers worldwide.

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Danone (DANOY US)

The a2 Milk Company FY26 Preview—Supply Restored

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) will report its FY26 result on Monday, 17 August 2026. ATM noted a ‘large proportion’ of its China-label customers were...

Forsyth Barr

The a2 Milk Company Bottlenecks Breaking

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance. As a result, product flows to distributors and...

Forsyth Barr

The a2 Milk Company US Infant Formula Recall

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has announced the voluntary recall of three batches of a2 Platinum infant formula sold into the United States (US) due...

Forsyth Barr

The a2 Milk Company (ATM): US Infant Formula Recall

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) has announced the voluntary recall of three batches of a2 Platinum infant formula sold into the USA. No confirmed...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company Infant Formula Recall What We Know So Far

Our broad thoughts at this stage are: (1) we think The a2 Milk Company (ATM) is in the clear from any negative impacts, although we recognise why...

Forsyth Barr

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