Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2022.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2022.


Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Danone offered to buy Lifeway at $25/share in September 2024, raised to $27/share in November 2024.</li><li>Lifeway's board rejected Danone's offers, claiming $27/share undervalues the company; CEO Julie Smolyansky increased her compensation.</li><li>Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky, with Danone, control 50% of Lifeway, aiming to replace the board and negotiate a sale.</li></ul>

Danone offered to buy Lifeway at $25/share in September 2024, raised to $27/share in November 2024.Lifeway's board rejected Danone's offers, claiming $27/share undervalues the company; CEO Julie Smolyansky increased her compensation.Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky, with Danone, control 50% of Lifeway, aiming to replace the board and negotiate a sale.

Lifeway Foods Faces Potential Sale to Danone Amidst Board Overhaul and Family Feud Resolution by June 2025

<ul><li>Biogen owns ~10% of Sage Therapeutics and offered $7.22/share to acquire the rest, which Sage rejected.</li><li>Sage has ~$500m in net cash and a 50/50 partnership with Biogen on Zurzuvae, valued at $10/share.</li><li>Biogen's interest in Sage is driven by Zurzuvae's potential as a blockbuster drug and associated synergies.</li></ul>

Biogen owns ~10% of Sage Therapeutics and offered $7.22/share to acquire the rest, which Sage rejected.Sage has ~$500m in net cash and a 50/50 partnership with Biogen on Zurzuvae, valued at $10/share.Biogen's interest in Sage is driven by Zurzuvae's potential as a blockbuster drug and associated synergies.

Biogen's Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae's Blockbuster Potential

France

Danone SA is a food processing company. The Company produces dairy products, beverages, baby food and clinical/medical nutrition products.

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Danone SA (BN FP)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

There are 3 ADDs/DELs based on current data but these rankings could fluctuate. There might some interesting pair trades involving the highest...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Lifeway Foods Faces Potential Sale to Danone Amidst Board Overhaul and Family Feud Resolution by June 2025

Danone offered to buy Lifeway at $25/share in September 2024, raised to $27/share in November 2024.

Special Situation Investments

Biogen's Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae's Blockbuster Potential

Biogen owns ~10% of Sage Therapeutics and offered $7.22/share to acquire the rest, which Sage rejected.

Special Situation Investments

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