Owner and CEO, GR20 Research

Gregory Ramirez

Owner and CEO

Industry Research and Consulting Services

GR20 Research

GR20 Research provides industry research and consulting services

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Software companies see a slow improvement in revenue growth, with Europe narrowing the performance gap. However, growth remains below post-lockdown levels, and a return to high double-digit rates is unlikely.  </li>
<li>The best-performing vendors are those focused on defence, large-scale data handling, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, financial services digitisation, and modern accounting platforms. US firms still lead in absolute growth numbers.   </li>
<li>While the number of software M&amp;A deals above USD 200m has declined, total deal value is on track for a record year in 2025, driven primarily by strategic acquirers.</li>
</ul>


Software companies see a slow improvement in revenue growth, with Europe narrowing the performance gap. However, growth remains below post-lockdown levels, and a return to high double-digit rates is unlikely.  
The best-performing vendors are those focused on defence, large-scale data handling, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, financial services digitisation, and modern accounting platforms. US firms still lead in absolute growth numbers.   
While the number of software M&amp;A deals above USD 200m has declined, total deal value is on track for a record year in 2025, driven primarily by strategic acquirers.


European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>68.2% of global equity funds are positioned ahead of the benchmark in France, with an average overweight of 2%, making it the second largest country overweight after the UK.</li>
<li>France is currently the second largest country overweight after the UK, effectively offsetting some of the underweights in the USA, China &amp; Hong Kong, and Australia.</li>
<li>Overweights driven by by Schneider Electric, L'Oreal, and LVMH, whilst Pernod Ricard and Sanofi see investor outflows.</li>
</ul>


68.2% of global equity funds are positioned ahead of the benchmark in France, with an average overweight of 2%, making it the second largest country overweight after the UK.
France is currently the second largest country overweight after the UK, effectively offsetting some of the underweights in the USA, China &amp; Hong Kong, and Australia.
Overweights driven by by Schneider Electric, L'Oreal, and LVMH, whilst Pernod Ricard and Sanofi see investor outflows.


France:  Global Funds Overweight Ahead of Snap Election

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 15th Feb, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>, a supplier of advanced semiconductors, entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Altium shareholders are being offered A$68.50/share, in cash, a lifetime high.</li>
<li>
The<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240606/pdf/064bn0c8xglrkk.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Scheme Booklet</a> is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 12th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 15th Feb, Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), a supplier of advanced semiconductors, entered into a Scheme with Altium Ltd (ALU AU).
Altium shareholders are being offered A$68.50/share, in cash, a lifetime high.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 12th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable.


Altium (ALU AU)'s 12th July Scheme Vote. Renesas' Done Deal

France

Dassault Systemes operates as a software company. The develops and offers 3Dexperience platform to create innovative new products and services using virtual experiences. Dassault Systemes serves aerospace, construction, business services, consumer packaged goods, high-tech, life science, health care, marine, energy, and industrial equipment industries worldwide.

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Dassault Systemes (DSY FP)

European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...

Gregory Ramirez

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

France: Global Funds Overweight Ahead of Snap Election

Global equity fund managers are entering the French election with an overweight position compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark

Steven Holden

Altium (ALU AU)'s 12th July Scheme Vote. Renesas' Done Deal

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.7%/11.8%. IF YOU ARE AN ARBITRAGEUR, get involved here and on any material dips. IF YOU ARE A LO...

David Blennerhassett

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European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

​Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...

Gregory Ramirez

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

France: Global Funds Overweight Ahead of Snap Election

Global equity fund managers are entering the French election with an overweight position compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark

Steven Holden

Altium (ALU AU)'s 12th July Scheme Vote. Renesas' Done Deal

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.7%/11.8%. IF YOU ARE AN ARBITRAGEUR, get involved here and on any material dips. IF YOU ARE A LO...

David Blennerhassett

Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...