Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a> reported a solid 4QFY23, reflecting a stronger-than-expected non-GAAP operating margin of ~9% and GAAP subscription gross margin of ~79%. </li>
<li>Elastic cloud revenue grew 28% y/y, representing 40% of total revenue. Elastic cloud is scaling well, and margins improved faster-than-anticipated. </li>
<li>We are concerned about slowing H1 FY24 y/y growth in total revenue and failure to achieve the $2B revenue mark in FY25. Price target to $112.</li>
</ul>



Elastic NV (ESTC US) reported a solid 4QFY23, reflecting a stronger-than-expected non-GAAP operating margin of ~9% and GAAP subscription gross margin of ~79%. 
Elastic cloud revenue grew 28% y/y, representing 40% of total revenue. Elastic cloud is scaling well, and margins improved faster-than-anticipated. 
We are concerned about slowing H1 FY24 y/y growth in total revenue and failure to achieve the $2B revenue mark in FY25. Price target to $112.


Focus On Profitability Expansion And Durable Growth: PT Reduced To $112 From $133

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Palantir ownership among global funds hit a record 11.3% in July 2025, nearly doubling in six months, led by growth strategies.</li>
<li>Despite a 500% rally and rising index weights, most fund positions remain modest; only three exceed 2%.</li>
<li>Now the fourth most held AI/software peer, Palantir risks becoming a Tesla-style underweight challenge for active managers.</li>
</ul>


Palantir ownership among global funds hit a record 11.3% in July 2025, nearly doubling in six months, led by growth strategies.
Despite a 500% rally and rising index weights, most fund positions remain modest; only three exceed 2%.
Now the fourth most held AI/software peer, Palantir risks becoming a Tesla-style underweight challenge for active managers.


Palantir Technologies Inc:  Rotation Signals Momentum Shift

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Figma Inc., a fast-growing design software maker with strong VC backing, is expected to price the offering this week.</li>
<li>The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $25.00 to $28.00, implying a market cap of roughly $13B at the midpoint.</li>
<li>I have a positive view of upcoming Figma IPO and expect a strong first trading-day performance. The stock will begin trading on the NYSE on July 28, 2025.</li>
</ul>


Figma Inc., a fast-growing design software maker with strong VC backing, is expected to price the offering this week.
The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $25.00 to $28.00, implying a market cap of roughly $13B at the midpoint.
I have a positive view of upcoming Figma IPO and expect a strong first trading-day performance. The stock will begin trading on the NYSE on July 28, 2025.


Figma IPO (FIG.US): Investor Interest Remains Strong, Likely To Price IPO at Top of Range

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Datadog reported its Q2 2024 financial results which highlighted significant revenue growth and expanded customer base.</li><li>The company generated $645 million in revenue, marking a 27% increase year-over-year, surpassing its previous guidance.</li><li>Datadog ended the quarter with approximately 28,700 customers, growing from about 26,100 in the prior year.</li></ul>

Datadog reported its Q2 2024 financial results which highlighted significant revenue growth and expanded customer base.The company generated $645 million in revenue, marking a 27% increase year-over-year, surpassing its previous guidance.Datadog ended the quarter with approximately 28,700 customers, growing from about 26,100 in the prior year.

Datadog Inc.: Will The Enhanced Data Security Initiatives Pay Off? - Major Drivers

United States

Datadog, Inc. provides software solutions. The Company offers cloud-based monitoring and analytics platform which integrates and automates infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, and log management for real-time observability of customers. Datadog operates worldwide.

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Datadog (DDOG US)

Focus On Profitability Expansion And Durable Growth: PT Reduced To $112 From $133

Elastic remains my top pick in the observability and search space, and I see the potential for revenue growth re-acceleration in 2024.

Andrei Zakharov

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Palantir Technologies Inc: Rotation Signals Momentum Shift

Palantir has surged into global fund portfolios, doubling ownership to record highs. Growth-led buying and a 500% rally push it toward Tesla-like...

Steven Holden

Figma IPO (FIG.US): Investor Interest Remains Strong, Likely To Price IPO at Top of Range

Figma Inc. finally sets terms for long-awaited IPO in the United States. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, post-listing trading dynamics and...

Andrei Zakharov

Datadog Inc.: Will The Enhanced Data Security Initiatives Pay Off? - Major Drivers

Datadog reported its Q2 2024 financial results which highlighted significant revenue growth and expanded customer base. The company generated $645...

Baptista Research

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Focus On Profitability Expansion And Durable Growth: PT Reduced To $112 From $133

Elastic remains my top pick in the observability and search space, and I see the potential for revenue growth re-acceleration in 2024.

Andrei Zakharov

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Palantir Technologies Inc: Rotation Signals Momentum Shift

Palantir has surged into global fund portfolios, doubling ownership to record highs. Growth-led buying and a 500% rally push it toward Tesla-like...

Steven Holden

Figma IPO (FIG.US): Investor Interest Remains Strong, Likely To Price IPO at Top of Range

​Figma Inc. finally sets terms for long-awaited IPO in the United States. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, post-listing trading dynamics and...

Andrei Zakharov

Datadog Inc.: Will The Enhanced Data Security Initiatives Pay Off? - Major Drivers

Datadog reported its Q2 2024 financial results which highlighted significant revenue growth and expanded customer base. The company generated $645...

Baptista Research

Figma Inc. finally sets terms for long-awaited IPO in the United States. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, post-listing trading dynamics and...