Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is a growing expectation that mergers involving huge state-owned conglomerates could be part of China's soon-to-be-announced reforms of state-owned enterprises, according to a report in today's Securities Daily. Li Jin, deputy head of the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, said that state-dominated industries with problems of overcapacity, namely construction, electricity and rail would "face large scale mergers and restructuring". The article also notes that rumours of mergers in the construction, energy and telecommunications industry have been circling for a while now. The mergers could help reduce excessive competition between large SOEs, cut waste, encourage the formation of huge conglomerates that could better compete against large foreign firms and also assist in the internationalisation of the Chinese yuan. &nbsp;Below we look at what sectors and stocks could be effected.

There is a growing expectation that mergers involving huge state-owned conglomerates could be part of China's soon-to-be-announced reforms of state-owned enterprises, according to a report in today's Securities Daily. Li Jin, deputy head of the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, said that state-dominated industries with problems of overcapacity, namely construction, electricity and rail would "face large scale mergers and restructuring". The article also notes that rumours of mergers in the construction, energy and telecommunications industry have been circling for a while now. The mergers could help reduce excessive competition between large SOEs, cut waste, encourage the formation of huge conglomerates that could better compete against large foreign firms and also assist in the internationalisation of the Chinese yuan. &nbsp;Below we look at what sectors and stocks could be effected.

CHINA SOE REFORM: Detailed plan due in the next 3 weeks. Potential implications  

Local press has been heavily speculating that we will get a detailed announcement of the SOE reform plan by March, where the number of central SOEs may be reduced from the current 112 to 30-60 over the next&nbsp; several years.&nbsp;It was also speculated overnight that China is considering forging mega-mergers among its big state oil companies, seeking to create new national champions. It was also speculated last week that China was looking at merging China Tel and China Unicom.&nbsp;We had hoped that the focus of SOE reform would be about (a) reducing the state&rsquo;s role in the economy (b) promoting SMEs and private companies (c) improving the efficiency and SOEs and aligning management incentives with minority shareholders.&nbsp;From what we have seen thus far however, it seems the priorities will be set at avoiding internal competition in overseas markets and creating a few large Chinese global champions.

Local press has been heavily speculating that we will get a detailed announcement of the SOE reform plan by March, where the number of central SOEs may be reduced from the current 112 to 30-60 over the next&nbsp; several years.&nbsp;It was also speculated overnight that China is considering forging mega-mergers among its big state oil companies, seeking to create new national champions. It was also speculated last week that China was looking at merging China Tel and China Unicom.&nbsp;We had hoped that the focus of SOE reform would be about (a) reducing the state&rsquo;s role in the economy (b) promoting SMEs and private companies (c) improving the efficiency and SOEs and aligning management incentives with minority shareholders.&nbsp;From what we have seen thus far however, it seems the priorities will be set at avoiding internal competition in overseas markets and creating a few large Chinese global champions.

CHINA SOE REFORM: Thoughts and implications of OIL MERGER rumours

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Suntien Green Energy / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continues to trend slightly higher on average (see first chart below). Bumpy, but AH premia are up 3 of last four trading weeks. Quiddity Portfolio Alpha continues positive.</li>
<li>There continue to be some really big moves on pairs. This past week it was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-suntien-green-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17269:1" rel="noopener">China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/datang-international-power-generation-company-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3664:1" rel="noopener">Datang International (991 HK)</a> - both widened sharply.</li>
<li>The data tables below update daily in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free for all SK readers. Recently used tools are now sticky.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continues to trend slightly higher on average (see first chart below). Bumpy, but AH premia are up 3 of last four trading weeks. Quiddity Portfolio Alpha continues positive.
There continue to be some really big moves on pairs. This past week it was China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK) and Datang International (991 HK) - both widened sharply.
The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free for all SK readers. Recently used tools are now sticky.


A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 13 Mar 26); AH Wider Again - Pharmas & Tech Too Wide

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 178 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.2% as of Mar 13th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.2ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, real estate, communication services and offset by information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 178 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.2% as of Mar 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.2ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, real estate, communication services and offset by information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 13th): CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 63.5% as of Nov 21st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.5ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, materials, financials and offset by health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&amp;M Engineering, China Coal Energy, CATL, Sinopec.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 63.5% as of Nov 21st.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.5ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, materials, financials and offset by health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&amp;M Engineering, China Coal Energy, CATL, Sinopec.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 21st): Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&M Engineering, China Coal Energy, CATL

China

Datang International Power Generation is a major state-owned power producer in China, primarily engaged in generating electricity from diverse sources including coal-fired, thermal, hydro, wind, nuclear, and solar, alongside supplying heat. The company also operates in coal trading, chemical products, transportation, and power-related technical services. It was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China.

Datang International Power Generation (991 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Datang International Power Generation (991 HK)

CHINA SOE REFORM: Detailed plan due in the next 3 weeks. Potential implications

There is a growing expectation that mergers involving huge state-owned conglomerates could be part of China's soon-to-be-announced reforms of...

David Millhouse

CHINA SOE REFORM: Thoughts and implications of OIL MERGER rumours

Local press has been heavily speculating that we will get a detailed announcement of the SOE reform plan by March, where the number of central SOEs...

David Millhouse

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 13 Mar 26); AH Wider Again - Pharmas & Tech Too Wide

AH Premia continue to drift gently higher. Overall, spreads are middle of the last 52wk range but some are getting very wide again.

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 13th): CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 21st): Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&M Engineering, China Coal Energy, CATL

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Tianqi Lithium, BOC, CSSC O&M Engineering, China Coal...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)