Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL</li>
<li>There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank</li>
<li>With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs</li>
</ul>


We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL
There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank
With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs


HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed</li>
<li>There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times</li>
<li>Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.</li>
</ul>


The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed
There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times
Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.


HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Maybank sets Marco Polo Marine's TP at 11 cents, expects strong future growth.</li><li>RHB raises Marco Polo Marine's target price to 10 cents due to growth from new assets.</li><li>Hold Genting Singapore as renovations pave the way for recovery.</li></ul>

Maybank sets Marco Polo Marine's TP at 11 cents, expects strong future growth.RHB raises Marco Polo Marine's target price to 10 cents due to growth from new assets.Hold Genting Singapore as renovations pave the way for recovery.

Singapore Market Roundup (24-Oct-2025): Maybank sets Marco Polo Marine TP at 11 cents, sees

<ul>
<li>RHB raises Marco Polo Marine's target price to 10 cents due to growth potential.</li>
<li>Hold onto Genting Singapore; renovations signal potential recovery.</li>
<li>Maybank increases target price for Sanli Environmental after LTA contract win.</li>
</ul>


RHB raises Marco Polo Marine's target price to 10 cents due to growth potential.
Hold onto Genting Singapore; renovations signal potential recovery.
Maybank increases target price for Sanli Environmental after LTA contract win.


Singapore Market Roundup (23-Oct-2025): RHB ups Marco Polo Marine's target price to 10 cents.

<ul><li>OCBC upgrades Nanofilm to 'buy' due to valuation factors.</li><li>DBS raises Sheng Siong's target price after visiting its new CBD store.</li><li>RHB maintains 'buy' rating for ST Engineering after winning power plant contract.</li></ul>

OCBC upgrades Nanofilm to 'buy' due to valuation factors.DBS raises Sheng Siong's target price after visiting its new CBD store.RHB maintains 'buy' rating for ST Engineering after winning power plant contract.

Singapore Market Roundup (22-Oct-2025): OCBC upgrades Nanofilm to 'buy' based on valuation.

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS Group Holdings (DBSDY US)

HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

With 3Q25 results out just over 1 hour ago, we can see clearly, major deterioration in credit metrics, especially stage 2 loans and relative growth...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - Privatization of Hang Seng Bank Should Mean Limits on Granular Credit Metrics After 2H25

$1.1bn hit from Madoff fraud. None of this is positive for HSBC. There can be increased operational risk req. Front office managers are likely to...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (24-Oct-2025): Maybank sets Marco Polo Marine TP at 11 cents, sees

Maybank sets Marco Polo Marine's target price at 11 cents, while RHB raises it to 10 cents. Hold Genting Singapore as renovations support recovery.

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (23-Oct-2025): RHB ups Marco Polo Marine's target price to 10 cents.

RHB raises Marco Polo Marine's target to 10 cents; hold Genting Singapore for recovery. Maybank boosts Sanli Environmental's target after LTA...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (22-Oct-2025): OCBC upgrades Nanofilm to 'buy' based on valuation.

OCBC upgrades Nanofilm to 'buy', DBS raises Sheng Siong's target after a CBD visit, and RHB maintains 'buy' for ST Engineering after a contract win.

Singapore Market Roundup

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)