Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Normalising 1Q26 specific allowances to DBS' own guidance floor costs S$28m — under 1% of reported net profit. Earnings quality verdict = very good.</li>
<li>61.8% of GP reserves is management overlay at S$0.85 per share. The stock is disclosed each quarter; its direction is not.</li>
<li>DBS trades 43% above GGM-justified book value at S$72.00. The premium reflects genuine execution — our forensics find no material earnings distortion.</li>
</ul>


Normalising 1Q26 specific allowances to DBS' own guidance floor costs S$28m — under 1% of reported net profit. Earnings quality verdict = very good.
61.8% of GP reserves is management overlay at S$0.85 per share. The stock is disclosed each quarter; its direction is not.
DBS trades 43% above GGM-justified book value at S$72.00. The premium reflects genuine execution — our forensics find no material earnings distortion.


DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP): Accounting Forensics Affirms Quality, Not the Overlay Direction

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Sharp dislocations in Asian markets have opened up relative value trade opportunities. Many Asian markets' valuations are near long-term averages, but some are far more expensive, and some far cheaper.</li>
<li>Going by likely mean reversion, we conclude that Taiwan should correct more while Korea should rerate. The other markets are close to their long-term means, and hence, difficult to call.</li>
<li>In ASEAN, going long Indonesia and Philippines and shorting Singapore could be profitable. Shorting Thailand could be an option too, from the perspective of earnings pressure due to tourism slowdown.</li>
</ul>


Sharp dislocations in Asian markets have opened up relative value trade opportunities. Many Asian markets' valuations are near long-term averages, but some are far more expensive, and some far cheaper.
Going by likely mean reversion, we conclude that Taiwan should correct more while Korea should rerate. The other markets are close to their long-term means, and hence, difficult to call.
In ASEAN, going long Indonesia and Philippines and shorting Singapore could be profitable. Shorting Thailand could be an option too, from the perspective of earnings pressure due to tourism slowdown.


Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

<ul>
<li>ASEAN's underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies' revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.</li>
<li>China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.</li>
<li>We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.</li>
</ul>


ASEAN's underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies' revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.
China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.
We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.


Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans</li>
<li>Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I</li>
<li>Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data</li>
</ul>


There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans
Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I
Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data


US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

<ul>
<li>Singapore domestic credit growth is expanding upward over several months, where there are positive implications for net interest income growth</li>
<li>Growth of local loans was negative YoY in past months last year, so the delta pick up of net interest income can be strong</li>
<li>Accelerating growth likely means better credit metrics, and this is what MAS data shows too; this means that credit costs can come in, improving profit growth</li>
</ul>


Singapore domestic credit growth is expanding upward over several months, where there are positive implications for net interest income growth
Growth of local loans was negative YoY in past months last year, so the delta pick up of net interest income can be strong
Accelerating growth likely means better credit metrics, and this is what MAS data shows too; this means that credit costs can come in, improving profit growth


Singapore Banks - Domestic Credit Growth Rising Substantially, Credit Cost May Follow With A Decline

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Ltd is a leading financial services group in Asia, providing a comprehensive range of commercial banking and financial services. It offers retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking, including accounts, loans, cards, payments, investments, and insurance products. The company is headquartered in Singapore and was founded in 1968.

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DBS Group (DBSDY US)

DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP): Accounting Forensics Affirms Quality, Not the Overlay Direction

Six forensic screens clean, one amber. 61.8% of DBS's GP base is management overlay — S$0.85/share — with no quarterly movement schedule. At S$72,...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

ASEAN is again in focus. President Trump's tariffs last night shows that his ire on ASEAN largely stems from China's transshipment through these...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

HFD for US banks, shows very strong acceleration in C&I loans, and also other loans, which will also include C&I. Data suggests good economic...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Domestic Credit Growth Rising Substantially, Credit Cost May Follow With A Decline

Domestic credit growth in Singaporeis uplifting for several months, the rate of growth acceleration in latest month, is strong. Positive...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP): Accounting Forensics Affirms Quality, Not the Overlay Direction

Six forensic screens clean, one amber. 61.8% of DBS's GP base is management overlay — S$0.85/share — with no quarterly movement schedule. At S$72,...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

​Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

ASEAN is again in focus. President Trump's tariffs last night shows that his ire on ASEAN largely stems from China's transshipment through these...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

HFD for US banks, shows very strong acceleration in C&I loans, and also other loans, which will also include C&I. Data suggests good economic...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Domestic Credit Growth Rising Substantially, Credit Cost May Follow With A Decline

Domestic credit growth in Singaporeis uplifting for several months, the rate of growth acceleration in latest month, is strong. Positive...

Daniel Tabbush

Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...