Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aadhar-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32152:1" rel="noopener">Aadhar Housing Finance</a> raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon</li>
<li>AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon
AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup - PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> results are most interesting, like with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> , for what they show on specific regions</li>
<li>STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY</li>
<li>Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta</li>
</ul>



Standard Chartered (STAN LN) results are most interesting, like with HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , for what they show on specific regions
STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY
Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta


STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

<ul>
<li>What matters with HSBC results is really not the bottom line, the management view or the constant currency comparatives, but rather the view on specific regions. </li>
<li>Still there is concern HSBC has not yet realized losses on BoCom, it is not marked to market; there will be an impairment of USD1.2-1.6bn from dilution</li>
<li>HK shows credit costs rising from USD233m to USD320m YoY in 1Q25 and UK shows credit costs rising from USD55m to USD169m YoY, both are key to HSBC</li>
</ul>


What matters with HSBC results is really not the bottom line, the management view or the constant currency comparatives, but rather the view on specific regions. 
Still there is concern HSBC has not yet realized losses on BoCom, it is not marked to market; there will be an impairment of USD1.2-1.6bn from dilution
HK shows credit costs rising from USD233m to USD320m YoY in 1Q25 and UK shows credit costs rising from USD55m to USD169m YoY, both are key to HSBC


HSBC - BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening

<ul>
<li>MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks' credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply</li>
<li>It is not easily visible in banks' own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23</li>
</ul>


MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks' credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply
It is not easily visible in banks' own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics
Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23


Singapore Banks - Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup - PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon

Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set...

Sumeet Singh

STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Standard Chartered shows significant deterioration in quarterly credit costs, worsening in Hong Kong region credit costs, and in Grade 12 loans

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening

HSBC's 1Q25 results data release show that it will book a $1.2-1.6bn impairment on BoComm once govt capital injection is done, and that credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24

MAS data shows consistently rising charge-offs and charge-off rates for credit cards in Singapore. Some may be normalization, but not likely all of...

Daniel Tabbush

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