Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Granular data from DBS shows worsening credit metrics in Greater China and in Hong Kong. </li>
<li>We use DBS and other banks, as a window on credit metrics for China banks and HK local banks.</li>
<li>The NPL ratio for its HK business moved from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY, while Pillar 3 data shows sharp rise in New NPLs in 2H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data from DBS shows worsening credit metrics in Greater China and in Hong Kong. 
We use DBS and other banks, as a window on credit metrics for China banks and HK local banks.
The NPL ratio for its HK business moved from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY, while Pillar 3 data shows sharp rise in New NPLs in 2H24


DBS - Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Phillip Securities believes Q&amp;M will reverse margin trends as expansion phase ends; DBS bullish on GuocoLand after strong 1HFY2025 results.</li><li>UOB Kay Hian optimistic about Wilmar's improving China operations; analysts raise DBS's target prices above $51 on strong capital returns.</li><li>Analysts positive on CLAR post FY2024 results; OCBC Investment Research raises DBS's target price to $50 after record profits in FY2024 under Piyush Gupta's leadership.</li></ul>

Phillip Securities believes Q&amp;M will reverse margin trends as expansion phase ends; DBS bullish on GuocoLand after strong 1HFY2025 results.UOB Kay Hian optimistic about Wilmar's improving China operations; analysts raise DBS's target prices above $51 on strong capital returns.Analysts positive on CLAR post FY2024 results; OCBC Investment Research raises DBS's target price to $50 after record profits in FY2024 under Piyush Gupta's leadership.

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Feb-2025): Q&M reversing margin trends as expansion phase ends - Phillip Securities.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>S-Reits with retail assets in Singapore reported strong committed occupancy and positive rental reversions, driven by tourism recovery.</li><li>Frasers Centrepoint Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust reported occupancy above 99% and rental growth.</li><li>CBRE and DBS Group Research anticipate continued strong leasing sentiment and retail rent growth in Singapore through 2025.</li></ul>

S-Reits with retail assets in Singapore reported strong committed occupancy and positive rental reversions, driven by tourism recovery.Frasers Centrepoint Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust reported occupancy above 99% and rental growth.CBRE and DBS Group Research anticipate continued strong leasing sentiment and retail rent growth in Singapore through 2025.

REIT Watch – Occupancy remains high for S-Reits’ Singapore retail assets

<ul><li>Singtel's FY2025 ebit growth guidance may rise to mid-to-high teens from successful cost cuts, according to CGSI.</li><li>IG predicts OCBC will reach $19 and UOB will hit $39.90 in share price.</li><li>SGX reports record revenue and profit in first half, with 1HFY2025 adjusted net profit up 27.3% and increased revenue across all segments. CEO Loh addresses succession concerns.</li></ul>

Singtel's FY2025 ebit growth guidance may rise to mid-to-high teens from successful cost cuts, according to CGSI.IG predicts OCBC will reach $19 and UOB will hit $39.90 in share price.SGX reports record revenue and profit in first half, with 1HFY2025 adjusted net profit up 27.3% and increased revenue across all segments. CEO Loh addresses succession concerns.

Singapore Market Roundup (06-Feb-2025): Singtel poised for strong ebit growth in FY2025 - CGSI

<ul><li>Singtel is considering raising their FY2025 ebit growth guidance to mid-to-high teens, attributed to successful cost cutting efforts according to CGSI.</li><li>IG forecast predicts OCBC stock may reach $19 and UOB may rise to $39.90. RHB increases Centurion's target price and earnings due to higher rate assumptions.</li><li>CGSI maintains 'add' rating for Genting Singapore despite slow tourism recovery. However, DBS and RHB cut CDLHT's target price due to Singapore hotel oversupply.</li></ul>

Singtel is considering raising their FY2025 ebit growth guidance to mid-to-high teens, attributed to successful cost cutting efforts according to CGSI.IG forecast predicts OCBC stock may reach $19 and UOB may rise to $39.90. RHB increases Centurion's target price and earnings due to higher rate assumptions.CGSI maintains 'add' rating for Genting Singapore despite slow tourism recovery. However, DBS and RHB cut CDLHT's target price due to Singapore hotel oversupply.

Singapore Market Roundup (05-Feb-2025): Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance.

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

DBS - Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.

Granular disclosure in newly released data from DBS shows major deterioration in credit metrics in Hong Kong and in China. Its Pillar 3 release...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (11-Feb-2025): Q&M reversing margin trends as expansion phase ends - Phillip Securities.

Analysts are optimistic about multiple Singaporean companies such as Q&M, GuocoLand, Wilmar, and DBS, with target prices rising and strong...

Singapore Market Roundup

REIT Watch – Occupancy remains high for S-Reits’ Singapore retail assets

S-Reits with retail assets in Singapore reported strong committed occupancy and positive rental reversions, driven by tourism recovery. Frasers...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Market Roundup (06-Feb-2025): Singtel poised for strong ebit growth in FY2025 - CGSI

Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance, OCBC and UOB shares expected to rise, SGX reports record revenue and profit in first half of year.

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (05-Feb-2025): Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance.

Singtel may raise FY2025 ebit growth guidance, OCBC and UOB stocks may rise, Centurion's target price increased, Genting Singapore 'add' rating...

Singapore Market Roundup

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