'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/837/original/2019-01-18_11-35-42.png?1547778954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75837"></figure>
<p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div>
<p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</p>
<p><strong>RPS STATISTICS</strong> - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. </p>
<p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15862" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13435" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1">Bandai Namco (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote (7532 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/838/original/2019-01-18_11-36-19.png?1547778995" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75838"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/839/original/2019-01-18_11-37-01.png?1547779035" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75839"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/840/original/2019-01-18_11-37-37.png?1547779070" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75840"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/841/original/2019-01-18_11-38-07.png?1547779100" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75841"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">
<p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div>
<p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-score-update-overbought-and-oversold-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25849">Insight</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/842/original/2019-01-18_11-39-56.png?1547779218" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75842"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/843/original/2019-01-18_11-42-06.png?1547779350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75843"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p style="text-align: left;">In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>NB - All data is as of January 17th close.</strong></p>
</div>



Source: Japan Analytics

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been Descente (8114 JP),  Ariake Japan (2815 JP), Fancl (4921 JP), Bandai Namco (7832 JP), Don Quijote (7532 JP), and Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP).





Source: Japan Analytics

RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been LINE Corp (3938 JP) - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last Insight, and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).


Source: Japan Analytics

In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.


Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The supermarket sector is the most fragmented and uncompetitive of all retail sectors, a situation encouraged by major suppliers and not ideal for consumers.</p>
<p>Despite some effort from the likes of Aeon, consolidation has failed to materialise beyond a few in-group mergers.</p>
<p>Yet pressure on supermarkets to consolidate has been building due to depopulation in the regions, competitive pressures from other food retailers such as convenience stores and drugstore chains, as well as the emerging online food services.</p>
<p>Change is now coming. The biggest industry consolidation yet was announced last month, a precedent-setting alliance between three major supermarkets, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7580" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7580:1">Arcs Co Ltd (9948 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2256" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2256:1">Valor Holdings (9956 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7435" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7435:1">Retail Partners (8167 JP)</a>, carving up a large chunk of the country into three regional fiefdoms.</p>

The supermarket sector is the most fragmented and uncompetitive of all retail sectors, a situation encouraged by major suppliers and not ideal for consumers.
Despite some effort from the likes of Aeon, consolidation has failed to materialise beyond a few in-group mergers.
Yet pressure on supermarkets to consolidate has been building due to depopulation in the regions, competitive pressures from other food retailers such as convenience stores and drugstore chains, as well as the emerging online food services.
Change is now coming. The biggest industry consolidation yet was announced last month, a precedent-setting alliance between three major supermarkets, Arcs Co Ltd (9948 JP), Valor Holdings (9956 JP) and Retail Partners (8167 JP), carving up a large chunk of the country into three regional fiefdoms.

Arcs, Valor and Retail Partners Form First Nationwide Supermarket Alliance

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year in FY2017.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>There are now 79 companies with sales of ¥250 billion or more, including franchise operators and holding companies, and overall sales grew by 4.5%, way ahead of the 1.9% growth in retail sales overall, showing how much the bigger businesses are outperforming the rest of the sector, and how quickly they are eating up market share.</p>
<p>What follows is a comprehensive review of the major developments, focusing on the two key trends of e-commerce and greater group concentration, with an analysis of each of the major format sectors in the ranking.</p>
<p>It’s a long read but provides a complete and concise summary of both winners and losers, and the key trends in the retail sector at the moment.</p>

JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year in FY2017. 
There are now 79 companies with sales of ¥250 billion or more, including franchise operators and holding companies, and overall sales grew by 4.5%, way ahead of the 1.9% growth in retail sales overall, showing how much the bigger businesses are outperforming the rest of the sector, and how quickly they are eating up market share.
What follows is a comprehensive review of the major developments, focusing on the two key trends of e-commerce and greater group concentration, with an analysis of each of the major format sectors in the ranking.
It’s a long read but provides a complete and concise summary of both winners and losers, and the key trends in the retail sector at the moment.

Retail Ranking FY2017-18: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We initially screened for names that do not have a lot of cash relative to their short-term debt. We then went a step further and limited the universe to names that have bonds/loans coming due in the next 3 years. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP)</a> is the largest names to make the list. Softbank's Short-term debt to cash ratio (%) is 221%. Softbank has ¥1.5tn in cash &amp; short-term investments, compared to ¥3.9tn in short-term debt. </p><h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap greater than ¥50bn</li>
<li>Short-term Debt to Cash is…</li>
</ol>

We initially screened for names that do not have a lot of cash relative to their short-term debt. We then went a step further and limited the universe to names that have bonds/loans coming due in the next 3 years. Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP) is the largest names to make the list. Softbank's Short-term debt to cash ratio (%) is 221%. Softbank has ¥1.5tn in cash &amp; short-term investments, compared to ¥3.9tn in short-term debt. Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap greater than ¥50bn
Short-term Debt to Cash is…


Names with Bonds Coming Due and Not a Lot of Cash...

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<h2>The History</h2><p>In 2009, the private equity arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20668" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> - called Marunouchi Capital - bought a 33.4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13616" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13616:1">Joyful Honda Co Ltd (3191 JP)</a> - a Kanto-based home center operator - for about 20 billion yen. The company had sought the investment to grow out of its doldrums and expand prior to an IPO which was tentatively slated for 2013-2014. <em>Joyful Honda is one the larger market cap stocks (at just under 200bn yen) in the home center operator sector. </em></p><p>The above-mentioned IPO…</p>

The HistoryIn 2009, the private equity arm of Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) - called Marunouchi Capital - bought a 33.4% stake in Joyful Honda Co Ltd (3191 JP) - a Kanto-based home center operator - for about 20 billion yen. The company had sought the investment to grow out of its doldrums and expand prior to an IPO which was tentatively slated for 2013-2014. Joyful Honda is one the larger market cap stocks (at just under 200bn yen) in the home center operator sector. The above-mentioned IPO…

Joyful Honda: HUGE Buyback TOB - Not Meant For You, and Still Rich

Japan

DCM Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company established through merger of Kahma, Daiki, and Homac.  The Company operates home center chain stores throughout Japan.  DCM Japan Holdings offers merchandise such as home improvement products, household utensils, gardening supplies, sporting/leisure goods, and pet products .

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DCM Holdings (3050 JP)

Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the...

Campbell Gunn

Arcs, Valor and Retail Partners Form First Nationwide Supermarket Alliance

The supermarket sector is the most fragmented and uncompetitive of all retail sectors, a situation encouraged by major suppliers and not ideal for...

Michael Causton

Retail Ranking FY2017-18: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing

JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year...

Michael Causton

Names with Bonds Coming Due and Not a Lot of Cash...

We initially screened for names that do not have a lot of cash relative to their short-term debt. We then went a step further and limited the...

Custom Products Group

Joyful Honda: HUGE Buyback TOB - Not Meant For You, and Still Rich

The HistoryIn 2009, the private equity arm of Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) - called Marunouchi Capital - bought a 33.4% stake in Joyful Honda Co Ltd...

Travis Lundy

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