Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. </li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. We expect there will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flows of US$122mm for the June 2025 rebal which translates to a turnover of 2%.</li>
</ul>


The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. We expect there will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
We expect one-way flows of US$122mm for the June 2025 rebal which translates to a turnover of 2%.


[Quiddity Index] MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25 Leaderboard: Flow Expectations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> has entered a scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>. The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> stake.</li>
<li>The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.</li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 
The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.


Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Back on the 24th March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road (GOR AU)</a> <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250324/pdf/06gyn9td9070tr.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> an unsolicited offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI SJ)</a> of $2.27/share cash plus GOR's effective interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).</li>
<li>Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR's effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Over the past three weeks, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.</li>
<li>Several factors are driving the rally: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/de-grey-mining-northern-star-resources-the-passive-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent passive flow activity</a>, as highlighted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.</li>
<li>
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.</li>
</ul>


Over the past three weeks, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.

Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.


ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

<ul>
<li>For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s potential Offer.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

Australia

De Grey Mining Limited is an exploration and mining company focusing on zinc, gold, platinum, silver and base metals.

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De Grey Mining (DEG AU)

[Quiddity Index] MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25 Leaderboard: Flow Expectations

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index is one of the more interesting indices in the space BUT in the June/Dec cycle, it is mostly capping...

Travis Lundy

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross...

Arun George

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields

This is a clean deal. The implementation of De Grey Mining's deal, is today, the 5th May. Trading ~6.2%/14.4% gross/annualised assuming mid-Oct...

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...

Nico Rosti

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Quiddity Index] MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25 Leaderboard: Flow Expectations

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index is one of the more interesting indices in the space BUT in the June/Dec cycle, it is mostly capping...

Travis Lundy

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross...

Arun George

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields

This is a clean deal. The implementation of De Grey Mining's deal, is today, the 5th May. Trading ~6.2%/14.4% gross/annualised assuming mid-Oct...

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

​The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...

Nico Rosti

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...