European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the end of PUSU deadline, EQT and Dechra have agreed a 3,875p/share offer (44% premium, 21.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 30.2x Fwd P/E, vs. market leader Zoetis at 20.5x and 28.9x respectively).</li>
<li>Other private equity companies may not be able to match the deal's disintermediation benefits. Considering the short-term issues, I believe investors will accept the offer.</li>
<li>My base-case DCF fair-value estimate is 3,568p/share, 7.9% below the offer price. Therefore I set my <strong>TP</strong> at <strong>3,875p.</strong> Spread is 5.8%/8.8% (gross/annualised), I feel the risk/reward is balanced. Long.</li>
</ul>


At the end of PUSU deadline, EQT and Dechra have agreed a 3,875p/share offer (44% premium, 21.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 30.2x Fwd P/E, vs. market leader Zoetis at 20.5x and 28.9x respectively).
Other private equity companies may not be able to match the deal's disintermediation benefits. Considering the short-term issues, I believe investors will accept the offer.
My base-case DCF fair-value estimate is 3,568p/share, 7.9% below the offer price. Therefore I set my TP at 3,875p. Spread is 5.8%/8.8% (gross/annualised), I feel the risk/reward is balanced. Long.


EQT/​Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

<ul>
<li>Dechra is in discussions with EQT and ADIA about a 4,070 cash possible offer (46.6% premium, 22.6x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA and 32x Fwd P/E). PUSU deadline is 11 May. </li>
<li>With the deal multiple at a slight premium (on both EV/Fwd EBITDA and Fwd P/E) over Zoetis, the market leader in animal health, the offer appears to be reasonably priced.</li>
<li>My base case fair value estimate is 3,568p/share (DCF-based), 12.3% below the offer price. My TP is thus 4,070p. Gross spread is 9.1%, therefore I feel the risk/reward is balanced.</li>
</ul>


Dechra is in discussions with EQT and ADIA about a 4,070 cash possible offer (46.6% premium, 22.6x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA and 32x Fwd P/E). PUSU deadline is 11 May. 
With the deal multiple at a slight premium (on both EV/Fwd EBITDA and Fwd P/E) over Zoetis, the market leader in animal health, the offer appears to be reasonably priced.
My base case fair value estimate is 3,568p/share (DCF-based), 12.3% below the offer price. My TP is thus 4,070p. Gross spread is 9.1%, therefore I feel the risk/reward is balanced.


EQT/Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Generous Possible Offer

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

<ul>
<li>The F100 and F250 December 2023 index changes are likely to be announced after the close on Wednesday 29th December 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 based on rankings as of 27th November 2023.</li>
<li>There could be one change for the F100 index and six separate changes for the F250 index. Some names lurking close to the border can still make it.</li>
</ul>


The F100 and F250 December 2023 index changes are likely to be announced after the close on Wednesday 29th December 2023.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 based on rankings as of 27th November 2023.
There could be one change for the F100 index and six separate changes for the F250 index. Some names lurking close to the border can still make it.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>There are two more weeks for the base date. As things stand, there could be six ADDs/DELs during the December 2023 review and probably two more intra-review changes after that.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.
There are two more weeks for the base date. As things stand, there could be six ADDs/DELs during the December 2023 review and probably two more intra-review changes after that.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 6 ADDs/DELs and Two Intra-Review Changes Possible

United Kingdom

Dechra Pharmaceuticals PLC is an international pharmaceutical business focused on the veterinary market, with its key area of specialisation being the development and marketing of companion animal products.  The Company Operates under four segments: European Pharmaceuticals; US Pharmaceuticals; Product Development and Services.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH LN)

EQT/Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

In spite of negative trading updated, EQT has followed in its pursuit of Dechra and today both have agreed a fair, in my view, 3,875p/share offer...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EQT/Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Generous Possible Offer

Dechrais in discussions with EQT and ADIA regarding a possible 4,070p/share cash offer. Gross spread is 9.1%, therefore I feel the risk/reward is...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

SE600 members CHR Hansen and LXI REIT could get deleted in the first quarter of 2024. Apart from that, I see five more possible index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement

Today is the base date for the December 2023 review. The index changes for the December 2023 review will be decided based on full market cap...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 6 ADDs/DELs and Two Intra-Review Changes Possible

The one-way for the 6 ADDs/DELs expected for December is around US$80mn. On average, there could be around 1.6 days to buy for the 6 ADDs and 1.2...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EQT/​Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

In spite of negative trading updated, EQT has followed in its pursuit of Dechra and today both have agreed a fair, in my view, 3,875p/share offer...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EQT/Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Generous Possible Offer

Dechrais in discussions with EQT and ADIA regarding a possible 4,070p/share cash offer. Gross spread is 9.1%, therefore I feel the risk/reward is...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

SE600 members CHR Hansen and LXI REIT could get deleted in the first quarter of 2024. Apart from that, I see five more possible index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement

Today is the base date for the December 2023 review. The index changes for the December 2023 review will be decided based on full market cap...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 6 ADDs/DELs and Two Intra-Review Changes Possible

The one-way for the 6 ADDs/DELs expected for December is around US$80mn. On average, there could be around 1.6 days to buy for the 6 ADDs and 1.2...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EQT/Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Final Expectations; Two Trading Days for Announcement