Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Service EBITDA margin for Delhivery express parcel segment was ~500bps lower than what was realised in Q3FY24, despite a similar top line due to a one-off surge in intracity vehicle rental expenses (cINR 540mn differential).</li><li>PTL revenue declined 3% QoQ (+22% YoY) in Q3FY25 given adverse seasonality; however, management remains confident of sustained growth next year.</li><li>We believe Delhivery is a compelling buy at current valuation, given limited downside post the recent stock price correction.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Service EBITDA margin for Delhivery express parcel segment was ~500bps lower than what was realised in Q3FY24, despite a similar top line due to a one-off surge in intracity vehicle rental expenses (cINR 540mn differential).PTL revenue declined 3% QoQ (+22% YoY) in Q3FY25 given adverse seasonality; however, management remains confident of sustained growth next year.We believe Delhivery is a compelling buy at current valuation, given limited downside post the recent stock price correction.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Delhivery - Margin Disappoints Given One-Off Surge in Costs; Better Times Likely Ahead

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delhivery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33471:1" rel="noopener">Delhivery (DELHIVER IN)</a> faces immediate volume erosion as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meesho-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35872:1" rel="noopener">Meesho (1546271D IN)</a> migrates 65% of orders to Valmo, destabilizing a key client relationship historically contributing ~16% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Valmo’s rise structurally shrinks the addressable 3PL market, creating a permanent headwind that compresses pricing power and intensifies competition for remaining open volumes.</li>
<li>Anchor client insourcing caps Delhivery’s growth trajectory, rendering the Ecom Express acquisition insufficient to offset the structural decay in organic B2C volume velocity.</li>
</ul>



Delhivery (DELHIVER IN) faces immediate volume erosion as Meesho (1546271D IN) migrates 65% of orders to Valmo, destabilizing a key client relationship historically contributing ~16% of total revenue.
Valmo’s rise structurally shrinks the addressable 3PL market, creating a permanent headwind that compresses pricing power and intensifies competition for remaining open volumes.
Anchor client insourcing caps Delhivery’s growth trajectory, rendering the Ecom Express acquisition insufficient to offset the structural decay in organic B2C volume velocity.


Meesho’s Valmo | Erosion of Delhivery’s Margins

<ul>
<li>The near term impact of ONDC on OFD platforms like Zomato &amp; Swiggy is limited, longer term they will have to move from platform to a network centric model.</li>
<li>An external shock will be required to drive faster ONDC adaption as we have seen in the case of UPI.</li>
<li>Logistics companies especially the ones with express capabilities are likely beneficiaries in case ONDC scales up rapidly. </li>
</ul>


The near term impact of ONDC on OFD platforms like Zomato &amp; Swiggy is limited, longer term they will have to move from platform to a network centric model.
An external shock will be required to drive faster ONDC adaption as we have seen in the case of UPI.
Logistics companies especially the ones with express capabilities are likely beneficiaries in case ONDC scales up rapidly. 


India Food Delivery - Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Meesho has positioned itself as a value-shopping platform catering to rural consumers and small sellers. It charges the seller only for fulfillment and advertising while bringing value deals for consumers</li>
<li>We believe Meesho has a right to win in the value-shopping category ahead of Flipkart/Amazon with its focus on pricing vs quality/convenience. However, it may not attract high-spending aspirational consumers</li>
<li>IPO valuation at $5.6bn(5x FY25 sales) is relatively cheap vs listed e-commerce peers (6-13x). Closest peer Flipkart was most recently valued at $35bn (14x FY25 revenues).</li>
</ul>


Meesho has positioned itself as a value-shopping platform catering to rural consumers and small sellers. It charges the seller only for fulfillment and advertising while bringing value deals for consumers
We believe Meesho has a right to win in the value-shopping category ahead of Flipkart/Amazon with its focus on pricing vs quality/convenience. However, it may not attract high-spending aspirational consumers
IPO valuation at $5.6bn(5x FY25 sales) is relatively cheap vs listed e-commerce peers (6-13x). Closest peer Flipkart was most recently valued at $35bn (14x FY25 revenues).


Meesho - Potential Play on Value E-Commerce

India

Delhivery Limited provides logistics solutions to e-commerce companies. The Company offers last-mile delivery, payment collection and processing, third-party and transit warehousing, vendor-to-customer shipping, technology integration, and customized and revers logistics solutions. Delhivery Limited serves customers in India.

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Delhivery (DELHIVER IN)

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% and one-way trade is INR 7.65bn. With over US$40bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Delhivery - Margin Disappoints Given One-Off Surge in Costs; Better Times Likely Ahead

Service EBITDA margin for Delhivery express parcel segment was ~500bps lower than what was realised in Q3FY24, despite a similar top line due to a...

ICICI Securities Limited

Meesho’s Valmo | Erosion of Delhivery’s Margins

Delhivery faces volume erosion as Meesho migrates orders to Valmo, impacting revenue and creating pricing pressure in the 3PL market.

Pranav Bhavsar

India Food Delivery - Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

ONDC is set to offer customers more options, alter business models for online food delivery players and provide a tailwind for express logistic...

Pranav Bhavsar

Meesho - Potential Play on Value E-Commerce

Meesho targets rural consumers and small sellers with value shopping, offering deals for consumers and charging sellers for fulfillment and...

Himanshu Dugar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% and one-way trade is INR 7.65bn. With over US$40bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Delhivery - Margin Disappoints Given One-Off Surge in Costs; Better Times Likely Ahead

Service EBITDA margin for Delhivery express parcel segment was ~500bps lower than what was realised in Q3FY24, despite a similar top line due to a...

ICICI Securities Limited

Meesho’s Valmo | Erosion of Delhivery’s Margins

​Delhivery faces volume erosion as Meesho migrates orders to Valmo, impacting revenue and creating pricing pressure in the 3PL market.

Pranav Bhavsar

India Food Delivery - Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

ONDC is set to offer customers more options, alter business models for online food delivery players and provide a tailwind for express logistic...

Pranav Bhavsar

Meesho - Potential Play on Value E-Commerce

​Meesho targets rural consumers and small sellers with value shopping, offering deals for consumers and charging sellers for fulfillment and...

Himanshu Dugar

Delhivery faces volume erosion as Meesho migrates orders to Valmo, impacting revenue and creating pricing pressure in the 3PL market.

Meesho targets rural consumers and small sellers with value shopping, offering deals for consumers and charging sellers for fulfillment and...