Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>There are many stocks with opposing flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> trackers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.</li>
</ul>


There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
There are many stocks with opposing flows from NSE Nifty Next 50 Index trackers. Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.</li>
<li>The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.</li>
<li>Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.


India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Delhivery’s Q3FY25 revenue met our expectations, but EBITDA fell short due to increased vehicle rental costs driven by higher truck spot rates during the festive season.</li><li>These rates have normalized since Jan-25. The management intends to mitigate this risk going forward by exploring fixed cost contracts.</li><li>Performance in the PTL segment is expected to remain robust in Q4 (Jan volumes at 147k ton), while B2C continues to face broader industry headwinds (demand and quick commerce) and insourcing by Meesho.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Delhivery’s Q3FY25 revenue met our expectations, but EBITDA fell short due to increased vehicle rental costs driven by higher truck spot rates during the festive season.These rates have normalized since Jan-25. The management intends to mitigate this risk going forward by exploring fixed cost contracts.Performance in the PTL segment is expected to remain robust in Q4 (Jan volumes at 147k ton), while B2C continues to face broader industry headwinds (demand and quick commerce) and insourcing by Meesho.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Delhivery - Subdued Profitability; Outlook for PTL Remains Robust

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>We cut our FY25E EBITDA estimates by 9% amid eruption of cost led challenges in the quarter; however our FY26E/FY27E estimates are broadly intact.</li><li>Delhivery reported weak set of numbers with EBITDA miss of 13% due to high fleet cost inflation given the festive demand and increase in fixed overheads arising from operationalization of new facility at Bangalore.</li><li>This was the fourth straight quarter wherein Delhivery’s B2C volume growth was in low single digits.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We cut our FY25E EBITDA estimates by 9% amid eruption of cost led challenges in the quarter; however our FY26E/FY27E estimates are broadly intact.Delhivery reported weak set of numbers with EBITDA miss of 13% due to high fleet cost inflation given the festive demand and increase in fixed overheads arising from operationalization of new facility at Bangalore.This was the fourth straight quarter wherein Delhivery’s B2C volume growth was in low single digits.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Delhivery (DELHIVER IN) - B2C Margins Erode

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

India

Delhivery is an Indian logistics and supply chain company that provides technology-enabled services, including express parcel delivery, part-truckload (PTL) and full-truckload (FTL) freight, integrated supply chain solutions, and warehousing. It offers comprehensive solutions for e-commerce and B2B commerce, leveraging a proprietary technology stack. The company was founded in May 2011 and is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

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Delhivery (DELHIVER IN)

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 17 changes for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR15.9bn. There are many stocks...

Brian Freitas

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Delhivery - Subdued Profitability; Outlook for PTL Remains Robust

Delhivery’s Q3FY25 revenue met our expectations, but EBITDA fell short due to increased vehicle rental costs driven by higher truck spot rates...

Emkay