European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.</li>
<li>At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.</li>
<li>Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.</li>
</ul>


Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.
At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.
Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.


High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

<ul>
<li>Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.</li>
<li>While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.


Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;</li>
<li>JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;</li>
<li>NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.</li>
</ul>


Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;
JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;
NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses.  The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.
</li>
<li>Operating profit surged to RMB 2.69 bn, an 11-fold increase YOY, as easing competition allowed the company to reduce food delivery subsidies, improving unit economics across food and non-food categories.</li>
<li> Meituan's profit surge, combined with JD.com cutting promotional spending and Alibaba reducing sales and marketing expenses, adds to the evidence that China's quick-commerce price war may be peaking. </li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses.  The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.

Operating profit surged to RMB 2.69 bn, an 11-fold increase YOY, as easing competition allowed the company to reduce food delivery subsidies, improving unit economics across food and non-food categories.
 Meituan's profit surge, combined with JD.com cutting promotional spending and Alibaba reducing sales and marketing expenses, adds to the evidence that China's quick-commerce price war may be peaking. 


MEITUAN: End of Subsidies Is Food for Thought !!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

United Kingdom

Deliveroo is a British online food delivery company that connects consumers with local restaurants, grocery stores, and retailers through its online platform and mobile app. The company offers on-demand delivery services, including restaurant meals, groceries, and retail products, and operates a subscription program called Deliveroo Plus. Deliveroo also utilizes 'dark kitchens' (Deliveroo Editions) for delivery-only meals and provides data insights to partner businesses to optimize their offerings. Headquartered in London, United Kingdom, Deliveroo was founded in 2013.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Deliveroo (ROO LN)

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders backed DoorDash’s 180p offer. With court sanction due late July, settlement could close by 30 July, offering a ~36% IRR.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MEITUAN: End of Subsidies Is Food for Thought !!

Meituan (3690 HK) returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses. The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.

David Mudd

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders backed DoorDash’s 180p offer. With court sanction due late July, settlement could close by 30 July, offering a ~36% IRR.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

​Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MEITUAN: End of Subsidies Is Food for Thought !!

Meituan (3690 HK) returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses. The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.

David Mudd

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.