European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Uber Technologies has approached Delivery Hero with an initial €33/share proposal, later reportedly discussed around €38/share. At €37.6/share, the market is already pricing a higher bid, not a completed transaction.</li>
<li>A €41/share offer would value Delivery Hero at ~15.1bn EV, but estimated €350–500m EBITDA synergies reduce Uber’s effective acquisition multiple closer to 10–11x EBITDA.</li>
<li>Uber’s 19.5% stake, activist pressure from Aspex and accelerating sector consolidation support strategic optionality, though antitrust risk across overlapping European markets remains substantial.</li>
</ul>


Uber Technologies has approached Delivery Hero with an initial €33/share proposal, later reportedly discussed around €38/share. At €37.6/share, the market is already pricing a higher bid, not a completed transaction.
A €41/share offer would value Delivery Hero at ~15.1bn EV, but estimated €350–500m EBITDA synergies reduce Uber’s effective acquisition multiple closer to 10–11x EBITDA.
Uber’s 19.5% stake, activist pressure from Aspex and accelerating sector consolidation support strategic optionality, though antitrust risk across overlapping European markets remains substantial.


Delivery Hero: Uber’s Appetite for Scale

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;</li>
<li>JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;</li>
<li>NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.</li>
</ul>


Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;
JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;
NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses.  The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.
</li>
<li>Operating profit surged to RMB 2.69 bn, an 11-fold increase YOY, as easing competition allowed the company to reduce food delivery subsidies, improving unit economics across food and non-food categories.</li>
<li> Meituan's profit surge, combined with JD.com cutting promotional spending and Alibaba reducing sales and marketing expenses, adds to the evidence that China's quick-commerce price war may be peaking. </li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses.  The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.

Operating profit surged to RMB 2.69 bn, an 11-fold increase YOY, as easing competition allowed the company to reduce food delivery subsidies, improving unit economics across food and non-food categories.
 Meituan's profit surge, combined with JD.com cutting promotional spending and Alibaba reducing sales and marketing expenses, adds to the evidence that China's quick-commerce price war may be peaking. 


MEITUAN: End of Subsidies Is Food for Thought !!

Germany

Delivery Hero SE offers e-commerce services. The Company provides online food ordering services. Delivery Hero serves customers Germany.

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Delivery Hero SE (DHER GR)

Delivery Hero: Uber’s Appetite for Scale

Uber’s approach to Delivery Hero has turned a depressed delivery platform into a strategic asset. The market now prices a higher bid, but antitrust...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

MEITUAN: End of Subsidies Is Food for Thought !!

Meituan (3690 HK) returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses. The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Delivery Hero: Uber’s Appetite for Scale

Uber’s approach to Delivery Hero has turned a depressed delivery platform into a strategic asset. The market now prices a higher bid, but antitrust...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

​Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

MEITUAN: End of Subsidies Is Food for Thought !!

Meituan (3690 HK) returned to profit in 2Q26 after 3 quarters of losses. The company had a net income of RMB 2.16B vs. a consensus loss of RMB 1.23B.

David Mudd

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.