Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dell and HP's latest results indicate an improving PC industry environment in 2H23E, though weaker than expected China demand has softened initial expectations.</li>
<li>A key take-away is that a major AI PC upgrade cycle is indeed on the horizon, with additional clarity now provided as to when and how it will unfold.</li>
<li>A 'step-change' AI PC upgrade cycle will make the strength of the current near-term cycle recovery less relevant, and isn't yet priced-in by the market.</li>
</ul>


Dell and HP's latest results indicate an improving PC industry environment in 2H23E, though weaker than expected China demand has softened initial expectations.
A key take-away is that a major AI PC upgrade cycle is indeed on the horizon, with additional clarity now provided as to when and how it will unfold.
A 'step-change' AI PC upgrade cycle will make the strength of the current near-term cycle recovery less relevant, and isn't yet priced-in by the market.


Recent Dell & HP Results Provide Additional Clarity on Coming AI PC Wave

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>HP undergoes leadership overhaul and revamps supply chain in preparation for Trump 2.0, while strict qualification measures impact 7nm technology development.</li><li>TSMC's AI chip expansion is overshadowed by the potential return of Trump, with global notebook shipments fluctuating in Q3/Q4 2024.</li><li>DIGITIMES Research forecasts a steady revenue growth of over 10% CAGR for the global wafer foundry industry during the 2024-2029 period, while Apple India's sales soar to US$8B driven by strong iPhone sales. Availability of Samsung's HBM3E for Nvidia's Blackwell remains uncertain.</li></ul>

HP undergoes leadership overhaul and revamps supply chain in preparation for Trump 2.0, while strict qualification measures impact 7nm technology development.TSMC's AI chip expansion is overshadowed by the potential return of Trump, with global notebook shipments fluctuating in Q3/Q4 2024.DIGITIMES Research forecasts a steady revenue growth of over 10% CAGR for the global wafer foundry industry during the 2024-2029 period, while Apple India's sales soar to US$8B driven by strong iPhone sales. Availability of Samsung's HBM3E for Nvidia's Blackwell remains uncertain.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Nov-2024): HP prepares for Trump 2.0 with changes in leadership and supply chain in NA.

<ul><li>2024 Taiwan notebooks set for release in 3rd quarter, increasing competition in the tech market.</li><li>TSMC's October revenue surpasses NT$300 billion, fueled by orders from major clients, showcasing the company's strong performance.</li><li>Wafer Works establishes new 12-inch semiconductor fab in Taiwan to cater to AI and EV industries globally, highlighting the industry's growth and development.</li></ul>

2024 Taiwan notebooks set for release in 3rd quarter, increasing competition in the tech market.TSMC's October revenue surpasses NT$300 billion, fueled by orders from major clients, showcasing the company's strong performance.Wafer Works establishes new 12-inch semiconductor fab in Taiwan to cater to AI and EV industries globally, highlighting the industry's growth and development.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Nov-2024): Taiwan notebooks, Q3 2024

<ul><li>Hyundai is competing against the US and China in the global autonomous vehicle market, trying to keep up with the latest technological developments.</li><li>Tesla's new Robotaxi and self-driving bus have been unveiled, but doubts linger about whether they will be commercially successful in the long run.</li><li>TsangYow is planning for growth as Asian markets recover, with a Malaysian plant set to launch in 2027. HK startups are utilizing AI for growth in education and tourism sectors.</li></ul>

Hyundai is competing against the US and China in the global autonomous vehicle market, trying to keep up with the latest technological developments.Tesla's new Robotaxi and self-driving bus have been unveiled, but doubts linger about whether they will be commercially successful in the long run.TsangYow is planning for growth as Asian markets recover, with a Malaysian plant set to launch in 2027. HK startups are utilizing AI for growth in education and tourism sectors.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Oct-2024): Hyundai races to catch up in global AV competition.

<ul>
<li>Apple MR device facing possible upgrade to 1,500 PPI OLED display.</li>
<li>Automotive CIS tech set to advance by 2024. Taiwan offers permanent residence to address talent shortage in AI industry.</li>
<li>UK showcases compound semiconductor strength and collaboration with Taiwan. Henkel expands semiconductor focus in India for market growth.</li>
</ul>


Apple MR device facing possible upgrade to 1,500 PPI OLED display.
Automotive CIS tech set to advance by 2024. Taiwan offers permanent residence to address talent shortage in AI industry.
UK showcases compound semiconductor strength and collaboration with Taiwan. Henkel expands semiconductor focus in India for market growth.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Sep-2024): Apple MR Device Facing Possible Upgrade

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

Recent Dell & HP Results Provide Additional Clarity on Coming AI PC Wave

A 'step-change' AI PC upgrade cycle will make the strength of the current near-term cycle recovery less relevant, and isn't yet priced-in by the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Nov-2024): HP prepares for Trump 2.0 with changes in leadership and supply chain in NA.

HP is preparing for Trump 2.0 with leadership changes and supply chain revamp, while strict wafer scrutiny affects 7nm tech development.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Nov-2024): Taiwan notebooks, Q3 2024

Taiwan's semiconductor industry sees growth as TSMC's revenue surpasses NT$300 billion, Wafer Works opens new fab, SMIC targets global chip market,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Oct-2024): Hyundai races to catch up in global AV competition.

Hyundai, Tesla, TsangYow, Foxconn, L&T Semicon, and Samsung make moves in autonomous vehicles, AI, energy markets, and labor disputes.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Sep-2024): Apple MR Device Facing Possible Upgrade

Apple MR device facing possible upgrade to 1,500 PPI OLED display. Taiwan offers permanent residence, UK shows strength in compound semiconductors,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

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