Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The US has maintained the reciprocal tariff rate on Thailand at 36%, while allowing room for negotiations before the new tariff takes effect on August 1, 2025.</li><li>If the US ultimately imposes this 36% tariff on Thai exports (with KTX estimating a 30% probability), it would undermine the competitiveness of Thai products — particularly electronics and rubber — posing downside risk that could push the SET Index down to 1,037 points over the next 12 months.</li><li>However, we believe the Thai government will make strong efforts to negotiate the rate down closer to 18% (55% probability). </li></ul>

The US has maintained the reciprocal tariff rate on Thailand at 36%, while allowing room for negotiations before the new tariff takes effect on August 1, 2025.If the US ultimately imposes this 36% tariff on Thai exports (with KTX estimating a 30% probability), it would undermine the competitiveness of Thai products — particularly electronics and rubber — posing downside risk that could push the SET Index down to 1,037 points over the next 12 months.However, we believe the Thai government will make strong efforts to negotiate the rate down closer to 18% (55% probability). 

Special Report: Reciprocal Tariff - JULY 9, 2025

<ul><li>Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Iran showed signs of progress, prompting a strong rally across Asian bourses, including the SET.</li><li>The SET Index recorded the highest gain among regional markets, fueled by robust buying in blue-chip stocks, such as DELTA, ADVANC, AOT, GULF, CPALL, and leading banking names.</li><li>This surge pushed the index back above the 1,100-point mark for the first time in four days.</li></ul>

Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Iran showed signs of progress, prompting a strong rally across Asian bourses, including the SET.The SET Index recorded the highest gain among regional markets, fueled by robust buying in blue-chip stocks, such as DELTA, ADVANC, AOT, GULF, CPALL, and leading banking names.This surge pushed the index back above the 1,100-point mark for the first time in four days.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Sep 18th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Central Plaza Hotel, Bangchak, Advanced Info Service, Delta Electronics, Advanced Info Service.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Sep 18th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Central Plaza Hotel, Bangchak, Advanced Info Service, Delta Electronics, Advanced Info Service.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Delta Electronics, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Bangchak

<ul><li>The US has announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on its global trade partners. In the worst-case scenario, Thailand may face a tariff rate of 36%.</li><li>The initial estimate indicates that this could cause Thailand's exports and overall economy in 2025E to grow at a lower rate, by -4.93 ppt and -3.16 ppt, respectively.</li><li>This poses downside risk to the 12-month SET Index target, potentially decreasing it by approximately 16.67% to 1,111 points. </li></ul>

The US has announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on its global trade partners. In the worst-case scenario, Thailand may face a tariff rate of 36%.The initial estimate indicates that this could cause Thailand's exports and overall economy in 2025E to grow at a lower rate, by -4.93 ppt and -3.16 ppt, respectively.This poses downside risk to the 12-month SET Index target, potentially decreasing it by approximately 16.67% to 1,111 points. 

Special Report: Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - APRIL 11, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,210/1,206 points and the resistance at 1,225/1,233 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a zig-zag down downtrend, searching for the bottom within the 1,187-1,506 point range.</li><li>In the short term, the market is at a decision point — whether to rebound (which requires holding above the 10-day EMA at 1,247 points) or continue declining to form a new low. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,210/1,206 points and the resistance at 1,225/1,233 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a zig-zag down downtrend, searching for the bottom within the 1,187-1,506 point range.In the short term, the market is at a decision point — whether to rebound (which requires holding above the 10-day EMA at 1,247 points) or continue declining to form a new low. 

KTX Zoom: MSCI Rebalancing, Effective Today - FEBRUARY 28, 2025

Thailand

Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes power supplies, electronic equipment, and components such as DC fans, EMI filters, and solenoids. The company also provides solutions including EV chargers, industrial automation, data center infrastructure, and smart energy management. Headquartered in Samut Prakan, Thailand, the company was established in 1988.

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Delta Electronics (Thailand) (DELTA TB)

Special Report: Reciprocal Tariff - JULY 9, 2025

We recommend speculative buying of stocks affected by concerns over the 36% tariff, namely DELTA, HANA, CCET, SVI, STA, NER, WHA, and AMATA.

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - JUNE 25, 2025

Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Iran showed signs of progress, prompting a strong rally across Asian bourses, including the SET.

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Delta Electronics, THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL, Bangchak

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Delta Electronics (DELTA TB), THAI AIRWAYS...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Special Report: Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - APRIL 11, 2025

The US has announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on its global trade partners. In the worst-case scenario, Thailand may face a tariff...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: MSCI Rebalancing, Effective Today - FEBRUARY 28, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,210/1,206 points and the resistance at 1,225/1,233 points.

Krungthai XSpring

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