Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The drop in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a>'s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a> has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.</li>
<li>There is positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a>, though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.</li>
</ul>


The drop in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)'s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.

Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.
There is positioning in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP), though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.


Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP)</a> at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a> JPY1,970 offer. </li>
<li>The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.</li>
<li>The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. </li>
</ul>


SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer. 
The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. 


Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD14,276m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Disco, Zensho, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Lasertec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD14,276m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Disco, Zensho, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Lasertec.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 15th): Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 16 June 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> sub NTT Docomo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a> announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.</li>
<li>The price for minorities is OK, not great. The Board talks up synergies not included in fair value considerations, and Dentsu+Docomo are actually buying it 15% cheaper. </li>
<li>That comes out to a net price below the bottom end of the DCF range. Aaargh. But Dentsu+irrevocables+ large individuals likely gets this over the line cleanly. </li>
</ul>


On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
The price for minorities is OK, not great. The Board talks up synergies not included in fair value considerations, and Dentsu+Docomo are actually buying it 15% cheaper. 
That comes out to a net price below the bottom end of the DCF range. Aaargh. But Dentsu+irrevocables+ large individuals likely gets this over the line cleanly. 


[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial (2887 TT)</a> is cheap to peers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT)</a> is cheap vs Taishin. Long Shin Kong. Long Taishin vs Peers. Long Shin Kong vs Taishin Peers.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabi makes a big, bold bet on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. However FIRB will have the last word on whether the deal goes through. </li>
<li>If the results show NTT owns &gt;80% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a>, buy a lot for a potential squeeze. If the results show NTT owns 68-70%, you can probably ignore. </li>
</ul>



Taishin Financial (2887 TT) is cheap to peers. Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT) is cheap vs Taishin. Long Shin Kong. Long Taishin vs Peers. Long Shin Kong vs Taishin Peers.
Abu Dhabi makes a big, bold bet on Santos Ltd (STO AU). However FIRB will have the last word on whether the deal goes through. 
If the results show NTT owns &gt;80% of NTT Data (9613 JP), buy a lot for a potential squeeze. If the results show NTT owns 68-70%, you can probably ignore. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin, Santos, NTT Data, ENN Energy, Mitsui Matsushima

Japan

DENTSU INC. mainly provides comprehensive advertising services.  The Company also provides marketing and event planning & promotion services.  Dentsu has associated companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.

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Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)

Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely

Dentsu has underperformed its peers this year and the stock could be deleted from a global index in August. Positioning appears to be smaller than...

Brian Freitas

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

The situation shares similarities with Soft99 tender. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 15th): Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Sanrio (8136 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Lasertec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now

The Docomo and Dentsu deal to buy Carta Holdings from Dentsu and minorities looks OK, is kind of cheap optically speaking, and is QUITE CHEAP in...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin, Santos, NTT Data, ENN Energy, Mitsui Matsushima

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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