Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/663/original/Market%20Risk.png?1450243661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4663"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90</figcaption></figure>In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

The financial crisis left a deafening echo in investors' ears.The ingredients of any financial bubble are well known: Easy credit availability, poor regulatory oversight, and bloated financial institutions all combine to create recessions and financial crises. Instead of rehashing past failures, we have developed our own Financial Depth Index, which relies on an innovative approaches to identifying countries and banking systems that face a high level of risk stemming from lopsided financial development. We also single out countries and systems where corporate and household debtors have reached a tipping point in their financial obligations.Beyond the sheer size of the credit in a specific economy, we urge investors to slice and dice the components of financial depth, as their correlation with economic growth and crises varies widely. For example, investors have focused on the generic credit/GDP measurement as a crisis indicator, but we believe the debt service ratio of households and corporations is more important. This indicator reliably detects the tipping point when an excessive debt burden will trigger cutbacks in consumption and investments, forcing an economy into a recession.Our analysis demonstrates that China and Brazil are on the verge of potential recessions and financial crises. We prefer exposure to Australia, Mexico, and the United States, which do not have excessive levels of credit or financial depth.Analysts: Sebastien Pigeon, Stephen Ellis, Tim Puls &amp; Michael Wu

The financial crisis left a deafening echo in investors' ears.The ingredients of any financial bubble are well known: Easy credit availability, poor regulatory oversight, and bloated financial institutions all combine to create recessions and financial crises. Instead of rehashing past failures, we have developed our own Financial Depth Index, which relies on an innovative approaches to identifying countries and banking systems that face a high level of risk stemming from lopsided financial development. We also single out countries and systems where corporate and household debtors have reached a tipping point in their financial obligations.Beyond the sheer size of the credit in a specific economy, we urge investors to slice and dice the components of financial depth, as their correlation with economic growth and crises varies widely. For example, investors have focused on the generic credit/GDP measurement as a crisis indicator, but we believe the debt service ratio of households and corporations is more important. This indicator reliably detects the tipping point when an excessive debt burden will trigger cutbacks in consumption and investments, forcing an economy into a recession.Our analysis demonstrates that China and Brazil are on the verge of potential recessions and financial crises. We prefer exposure to Australia, Mexico, and the United States, which do not have excessive levels of credit or financial depth.Analysts: Sebastien Pigeon, Stephen Ellis, Tim Puls &amp; Michael Wu

Financial Services Observer. A Polarized World: Credit Bubbles in Emerging and Developed Economies

<ul><li>We have written previously on why <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/324ae38b-37f4-4a65-940b-038231905ff2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1743">The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized</a>,</li><li>In our next report, <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tlac-regulations-will-destroy-banks-as-much-as-it-saves-them" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1776">TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them</a>, we focussed in on the negative side of the barbell, the banks that are set to struggle.</li><li>In this report we balance the scale, and discuss the positive end of the barbell. Those banks which are continuing to flourish, and are well placed to take advantage of the weakness of their competitors.</li><li>What is interesting in the world of increased banking regulation, and less leverage in particular, is how well most banks in South East Asia fare. But also, how some banks compare very well vs. others in the region.</li></ul>

We have written previously on why The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized,In our next report, TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them, we focussed in on the negative side of the barbell, the banks that are set to struggle.In this report we balance the scale, and discuss the positive end of the barbell. Those banks which are continuing to flourish, and are well placed to take advantage of the weakness of their competitors.What is interesting in the world of increased banking regulation, and less leverage in particular, is how well most banks in South East Asia fare. But also, how some banks compare very well vs. others in the region.

45 Banks in SE Asia Can Grow for 10 Years Without Need for Capital

<ul><li>The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns.</li><li>The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in order that they may be saved in a crisis.</li><li>It&rsquo;s ironic if not absurd.</li><li>This does not mean to say, that we believe banks should be highly leveraged, or engage in complicated, risky, murky businesses.</li><li>But it feels a bit like Basel got it immensely wrong, and is going over-board on its amends.</li></ul>

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns.The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in order that they may be saved in a crisis.It&rsquo;s ironic if not absurd.This does not mean to say, that we believe banks should be highly leveraged, or engage in complicated, risky, murky businesses.But it feels a bit like Basel got it immensely wrong, and is going over-board on its amends.

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rheinmetall-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21700:1" rel="noopener">Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)</a> as they are both surpassing the entry rank.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21585:1" rel="noopener">BASF (BAS GR)</a> as they are both below the exit rank.</li>
<li>The highest-ranked among <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-bank-ag-40d2d02f-a52f-4d36-a86f-79c59c4f0f17" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:526:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Bank (DBK GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bae-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21825:1" rel="noopener">BAE Systems (BA/ LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barclays-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1121:1" rel="noopener">Barclays (BARC LN)</a> may replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diageo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:977:1" rel="noopener">Diageo Plc (DGE LN)</a> if its price falls further.</li>
</ul>


The main forecasted additions are Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) and Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR) as they are both surpassing the entry rank.
The main forecasted deletions are Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR) and BASF (BAS GR) as they are both below the exit rank.
The highest-ranked among Deutsche Bank (DBK GR), BAE Systems (BA/ LN) and Barclays (BARC LN) may replace Diageo Plc (DGE LN) if its price falls further.


STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

Germany

Deutsche Bank AG is a global financial service provider delivering commercial, investment, private, and retail banking. The Bank offers debt, foreign exchange, derivatives, commodities, money markets, repo and securitization, cash equities, research, equity prime services, loans, convertibles, advice on M&A and IPO's, trade finance, retail banking, asset management, and corporate investments.

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Deutsche Bank (DBK GR)

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

Financial Services Observer. A Polarized World: Credit Bubbles in Emerging and Developed Economies

The financial crisis left a deafening echo in investors' ears.The ingredients of any financial bubble are well known: Easy credit availability,...

Morningstar, Inc.

45 Banks in SE Asia Can Grow for 10 Years Without Need for Capital

We have written previously on why The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized, In our next report, TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as...

Daniel Tabbush

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in...

Daniel Tabbush

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

Financial Services Observer. A Polarized World: Credit Bubbles in Emerging and Developed Economies

The financial crisis left a deafening echo in investors' ears.The ingredients of any financial bubble are well known: Easy credit availability,...

Morningstar, Inc.

45 Banks in SE Asia Can Grow for 10 Years Without Need for Capital

We have written previously on why The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized, In our next report, TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as...

Daniel Tabbush

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in...

Daniel Tabbush

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

​Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...